Shares most affected by the Brexit Deal

[sackofspuds]

Looking for some ideas here on shares that will fall then rise in the following circumstance which is how I see things going:
1. The meaningful vote on May's Brexit deal gets voted down on the first attempt.
2. Markets tank. Project Fear goes into overdrive.
3. Government tries to get the meaningful vote through again and this time it gets through (on the back of Labour MPs as it happens).
4. Markets shoot up.
5. After 2 years in the backstop, we end up staying in it or something very similar long term.

With respect, I'm not really interested in discussing whether I am correct in the above scenario. I've written a blog post about it that fleshes out my thinking more in case anyone is interested:
https://felix-randal.blogspot.com/2018/ ... l-get.html

What I am interested in is thoughts on which shares will rise the most when the vote makes it through the Commons.

Off the top of my head I thought of:
Banks - RBS, Lloyds, Barclays, HSBC.
Retailers - M&S, Sainsbury, Next, Tesco.
House builders: Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, Barratt.
Utilities: National Grid, Centrica, SSE, Severn Trent.
Some others: Royal Mail, easyJet, BAE Systems.

Now there's a Cboe Brexit High 50 index (BUKHI50P) comprised of the 50 companies in the Cboe 100 UK Index that derive the largest portions of their revenues from the UK so I looked at that too:
http://www.cboe.com/indexeurope/dashboa ... nstituents

That index would be the obvious thing to invest in but there is no tracker that uses it. I did think that a FTSE 250 or All Share tracker was a possibility but the FTSE 100 megacap companies dominate those indices and they therefore include companies little affected by brexit.

Given I'm looking to invest in a handful of shares at most, what do you think I should be looking at?

if I am wrong and there's a WTO brexit then I would want to hold because in the long term I think we'd be OK. Obviously if we postponed article 50 it has a similar effect om markets as May's deal passing.

[sackofspuds]

Made a mistake about FTSE 250. i thought it included the FTSE 100.

Anyhow, looking in more detail at the last week, National Grid didn't do too badly at all.

RBS really fell off a cliff. LLOY, SSE and BARC fell too but not as much. No great difference between FTSE 100 and 250 and obviously the fall not as extreme.

Maybe RBS is the brexit proxy. Gulp.

[Gengulphus]

Made a mistake about FTSE 250. i thought it included the FTSE 100.

Well, the FTSE 350 consists of all those shares either in the FTSE 100 or the FTSE 250 - so your remark would have been correct if it had said FTSE 350 in place of FTSE 250.

You could even have blamed a typo! ;-)

Gengulphus

[Nocton]

Have a look at Dart (DTG). It is a consistent good performer 'high flier'! but has come off its recent highs of £10 due to Brexit uncertainties re air travel. But the benefits of opening at Stansted and Birmingham have still to come through. And Jet2.com is arguably the best holiday air travel company in the UK.

[sackofspuds]

Thanks for that, Nocton.

Thinking about it some more I wonder if the markets have priced in May's deal not getting through first time. Right now that appears to be what will happen.

Therefore the markets and sterling may not plunge if the first vote on getting the deal through fails.

Ironically, this is unfortunate for May because she's relying on markets plunging to put pressure on her MPs and Labour MPs.