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Continuation - Provident Finance Group Trading Update

Discuss Stock buying Shares, tips and ideas for stock market dealing
IanSmithISA
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Continuation - Provident Finance Group Trading Update

#194185

Postby IanSmithISA » January 17th, 2019, 8:55 am

Good morning,

The following thoughts probably don't belong in the board this topic was posted on viewtopic.php?f=15&t=15698

pendas wrote:....The issue as always for me is how to long to wait for signs of a recovery. If I traded out of every company that takes a nosedive I'd quickly deplete my capital and who knows what I'd buy into, yet I'm 71 next birthday so don't have all the time in the world.


I sympathize but I believe that you may be suffering from following the general advice "Shares should be bought and held for the long term". :(

In my view this advice is much more applicable to investment funds than individuals, if you were Warren Buffet you wouldn't care, you could just say "leave it for another decade".

If you were a normal fund you may very well have used ongoing new funds to average down on PFG and overall be in profit or a small loss.

Neither option is available to you.

Oddly the only share in my portfolio showing a rise today is PFG, I had a quick jump in at 534p and have every intention of being out at around 570p.

Looking back at the price since Sept 2017, it has been fairly stable in the 575p-650p range so unless you have a reason to expect a change in fortune your money is sitting idle, can you use it better?

I do understand the risk of trading too frequently, but the PFG rights issue was 17/24 and looking at the share price over the last 20 years it seems that a price of 1,000p would be a target for a good recovery.

So this would suggest that double the current price would be a target but the Vanquish RoP issue and the difficulty in recruiting agents suggests to me that the company is still in a transition phase. If you look at the salaries for the Directors and the salaries of PFG's customers it is hard to see a meeting of minds and this may continue to be a problem for a long time.

Bye

Ian

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