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Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

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TheMotorcycleBoy
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Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228136

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 9th, 2019, 2:44 pm

Hi Folks,

I wanted to write a few words about investments in (mainly) software (and providers of related services) firms. Despite being a Computer Programmer by profession since the early 90s, we don't actually have any s/w firm shares in our portfolio. I'm not sure why, since clearly computing represents a major sector. Perhaps it's because having worked in the field I'm naturally sceptical - indeed me and colleagues used to often refer to "Vapourware", i.e. touted software ideas, described as being revolutionary, but never actually getting to market. I certainly know of several failed projects being canned sometimes very close to completion. When I first started investing I did briefly research Microfocus (MCRO), which I didn't like the look of much, due to looking like a "serial acquirer", and being very put off by some of it's acquistions (e.g. HPE/autonomy). Also looked at Sage (SGE), and at the time was put off, but in hindsight maybe should have taken the plunge back in the summer of '18.

So I have started to look at a couple of other software firms in the last few days (though I'd certainly appreciate any additional suggestions). I looked firstly at Softcat (SCT). This firm it seems is not actually a software producer (i.e. I don't think they design and write much s/w themselves), but they are more an "IT solutions provider", in other words they resell s/w and h/w, and also provide services in integrating various offerings into their customers enterprise.

Here is a short video where the CFO answers a few questions about Softcat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yA_7Nfckuok

Interestingly, back in spring of 2018, he suggests that they only occupy about 6% of their UK market, so presumably they have good prospects. However, regards growth, it's interesting to note that he explains their popularity (which probably explains their growth) on their very friendly (they do seem very hip if you glance over the ARs) staff, consumer focused and hands-on attitude. Now whilst this is obviously very good for growth in this country, I'm not sure how portable their culture will be across the globe - should they wish to expand.....presumably they will need to acquire like-minded similarly positioned foreign firms (in order to speak the lingo).

I've done some FA on SCT too which I'll try to upload soon onto the "company analysis" board.

My very brief summary of Softcat is as follows:
Pros:
Lots of UK growth and potential
Cash rich
Growing div policy
High returns on capital/equity

Cons:
Competition
Restricted to UK market place (probably)
Lowish Operating margin (6.3%)

Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228141

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 9th, 2019, 2:52 pm

This is some fundamental analyis I did on Softcat:

viewtopic.php?f=93&t=18031

Returns on capital are very good, but OM not so. I guess that on a financial side they could be impacted by cost of hardware, software, and wage/employee costs.

Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228147

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 9th, 2019, 3:09 pm

I have not done very much research into Sophos (SOPH). I'd always believed that their main business is Antivirus software, but according to the wiki:

Whilst not a primary focus, Sophos also protects home users, through free antivirus software (Sophos Home) intended to demonstrate product functionality.

that part of their business model is non-profit.

Skimming down the wiki page, I can see that this outfit is much more of a true s/w house than Softcat (which isn't really a software house at all, despite the name). Furthermore I mention later on in the page in "ActiveState", a firm whose (scripting language) tools I've used in the past. Alas they seem to be more of a s/w wheeler dealer in the context of AS, selling the interest on in 2006.

I have a lot more research to do in this firm. They do seem very pricey however at PE=93, though looking at their chart, they were a whole lot pricier back in Jan and June of 2018.

If anyone else wants to take the reins who knows more about Sophos, then please by my guest.

Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228227

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 10th, 2019, 8:25 am

I've spent a little time reviewing the financial statements since flotation in 2016 of Sophos. But given their P&L position of loss so far, it's a mystery to me that the current PE valuation of the firm sits at about 90.

This is a very quick snap shot of the financials for the past few years:



So whilst the quality of their software may be very good, their inability to make a profit (though I note a small amount of positive cash flow), makes me wonder whether it is worth my while to spend any time looking at their business anymore.

Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228231

Postby jackdaww » June 10th, 2019, 8:43 am

re sophos

i dont understand what they do , and its too difficult for me to find out , so i dont invest.

my one software holding is computacenter , but i find the sector interesting .

:)

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228233

Postby seagles » June 10th, 2019, 8:45 am

Have you thought about Microfocus, MCRO, although seen as a "legacy" company they have a wide range of software and consuntancy. I have been out of the business for 16 years but they were our number one competitor in europe with a good selection of analysis and change management products for big boxes. In fact the company I worked for was brought by them and we had some excellent products as well. UK based in Newbury. Not far off their 52 week high.

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228275

Postby Alaric » June 10th, 2019, 10:42 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote: But given their P&L position of loss so far, it's a mystery to me that the current PE valuation of the firm sits at about 90.


On a superficial view, they get revenue which they then defer. That enables them to report positive revenues, positive cash flow but negative profit. The implication is that they charge up front for future services which is perhaps something of a traditional software model.

If the business is mature, not making a profit does however suggest they are spending more on marketing , expenses, research and development than they get back in profit on sales.

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228289

Postby Urbandreamer » June 10th, 2019, 11:13 am

I don't have any shares in them, but you might like to consider Craneware.

The trouble is that it's difficult to judge the prospects of such companies. The PE is enough to give you a nose bleed, but it has been growing like mad and the market for its product is not small.

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228315

Postby Pendrainllwyn » June 10th, 2019, 12:08 pm

If you are interested in software and IT it might be worth looking at the US market. Isn't that where the world's leading companies in this field are? I doubt the UK will catchup any time soon if ever.

Pendrainllwyn

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228340

Postby gbjbaanb » June 10th, 2019, 1:25 pm

seagles wrote:Have you thought about Microfocus, MCRO, although seen as a "legacy" company they have a wide range of software and consuntancy. I have been out of the business for 16 years but they were our number one competitor in europe with a good selection of analysis and change management products for big boxes. In fact the company I worked for was brought by them and we had some excellent products as well. UK based in Newbury. Not far off their 52 week high.


I invested in MCRO a while back, looking into them it seems that they do very good stuff with their acquisitions - they don't make them for the sake of being bigger, they buy, improve, tart up, polish, and then sell for a lot more than they bought them. A good example is Suse Linux, they mae a packet on that.

But then.. HPE merger came along and the CEO was pushed aside for the new CEO from the USA. Who made a pigs ear of theings, so they dumped him and put the old guy back in charge. And MCRO has gone back to their old ways of making money. They've flattened out now so I've sold them on, but intend to buy back when the price drops.

I still have computacentre though, they seem to be growing still. Though I wonder for how long.
And I sold out of GBGroup though am thinking I might get back into them too - they did amazingly well for me, buying in after they announced their governemnt IT project was not progressing well (which in my experience of gov IT means "exactly as everyone expects")
I also sold out of Scisys, and that was a mistake (though TBH I only bought them because I used to work next door to their offices and they didn't have a car park full to bursting - ie weren't stuffed full of expensive staff)

I think a lot of software companies are overvalued, and that its probably easier to just buy a tech trust like 3i technology and let them worry about it all. I get over-involved with tech stocks as I know what they do, and find it difficult to look at the company as a company.

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228407

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 10th, 2019, 4:23 pm

seagles wrote:Have you thought about Microfocus, MCRO, although seen as a "legacy" company they have a wide range of software and consuntancy.

Thanks, yes I have looked at MCRO. I mentioned them in my OP. Their serial-acquiring nature and lack of focus (pardoning the pun) put me off them.


Alaric wrote:On a superficial view, they get revenue which they then defer. That enables them to report positive revenues, positive cash flow but negative profit. The implication is that they charge up front for future services which is perhaps something of a traditional software model.

That's interesting Alaric, deferred revenue is referred to here:

https://investors.sophos.com/en-us/medi ... t-2018.pdf

Current liabilities		2018	2017
Deferred revenue 423.9 330.6

Non-Current liabilities 2018 2017
Deferred revenue 331.8 250.4


but why is it referred to as a liability?


Urbandreamer wrote:I don't have any shares in them, but you might like to consider Craneware.

Thanks for this. I've reviewed them before, yes I should probably give them another look.

The trouble is that it's difficult to judge the prospects of such companies. The PE is enough to give you a nose bleed

Agree on both counts!


Pendrainllwyn wrote:If you are interested in software and IT it might be worth looking at the US market. Isn't that where the world's leading companies in this field are? I doubt the UK will catchup any time soon if ever.

Indeed. I'm a softie myself. My current employer and my last were both originally UK firms, only to be acquired by bigger US firms! We do have some great ideas here (well we certainly used to!). But the big stuff is mainly abroad. I'm somewhat reserved about buying any US stocks right now, mainly due to the weakness of the £.

Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228409

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 10th, 2019, 4:31 pm

Hi GBJ,

gbjbaanb wrote:I invested in MCRO a while back, looking into them it seems that they do very good stuff with their acquisitions - they don't make them for the sake of being bigger, they buy, improve, tart up, polish, and then sell for a lot more than they bought them. A good example is Suse Linux, they mae a packet on that.

But then.. HPE merger came along and the CEO was pushed aside for the new CEO from the USA. Who made a pigs ear of theings, so they dumped him and put the old guy back in charge. And MCRO has gone back to their old ways of making money. They've flattened out now so I've sold them on, but intend to buy back when the price drops.

Indeed as I said in my OP I did look at MCRO (late spring of 2018). I was put off by their acquisitive nature, esp. the HPE+Autonomy. MCRO are currently my neighbours in my QCOM @ Cambridge campus. So I have constant reminders of all the signage changes on their building!

I still have computacentre though, they seem to be growing still. Though I wonder for how long.

We did have CCC a few months last year! But after reanalysing it (and discovering the low OM) we sold out after a few months for a profit after it rallied half way through the year.

And I sold out of GBGroup though am thinking I might get back into them too - they did amazingly well for me, buying in after they announced their governemnt IT project was not progressing well (which in my experience of gov IT means "exactly as everyone expects")
I also sold out of Scisys, and that was a mistake (though TBH I only bought them because I used to work next door to their offices and they didn't have a car park full to bursting - ie weren't stuffed full of expensive staff)

I think a lot of software companies are overvalued, and that its probably easier to just buy a tech trust like 3i technology and let them worry about it all. I get over-involved with tech stocks as I know what they do, and find it difficult to look at the company as a company.

Thanks for these tips. A trust e.g. 3i may well be a good option for me to research.

Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228410

Postby Alaric » June 10th, 2019, 4:34 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:but why is it referred to as a liability?


It's money in the bank that cannot be declared as profit. Classing it as a liability makes it work that way in double entry accounting. Roll forward a period and some of it can be declared as a profit.

As an example, you sell a software licence for 100, but it may cost anywhere between 0 and 50 in support costs over the declared product lifetime. Profit (this year) is 50, even though revenue is 100.

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228441

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 10th, 2019, 5:50 pm

One of my other objectives in this thread was to discuss SaaS, or "Software as a Service". As a software engineer myself for the last 25+ years I can't help but view the profitability of this as an investment idea as being a little bit dubious.

(If you want to know more about SaaS, you can find millions of articles, clips etc. on it just by googling, youtubing etc. You might even find this very annoying bloke going on about it too).

Smoke and mirrors, too good to be true etc.

However, when other investors start to mention it, e.g. over here, I wonder whether it's worth another think.

Software as a service, is actually not a radical concept at all. It's like the computing equivalent of leasing a car instead of owning one, really. A firm outsourcing facilities management staff instead of having a facilities team on the payroll and equipment on site. Although actually with SaaS (IMHO) it's actually a little more decomposed. Instead of software e.g. Microsoft Word, Sage accounts etc. being installed (and hence maintained) at the user site, the software is actually installed somewhere else e.g. on a remote server (nowadays glamourised as "the Cloud"). Hence the users of the software have a different contractual arrangement with the supplier, rather having to stump up a large one-off cost for an "asset", e.g. a software installation and usage license(s), they periodically make much smaller payments, like a monthly rental.

It's easy to see the potential attractiveness of the model since firms don't need to front up lots of fixed assets (PCs / memory chips / licenses) only for them to depreciate, and hence need to replace every say 3-5 years. Instead a smaller cost is incurred, and furthermore that cost can be adjusted on a need-basis, IOW when a project is done, not only can the contractors be dismissed, but the rents on the software can be closed off too.

However, I really struggle to see a place for a large scale SaaS revolution in our workplaces. The concept is great for mobile users e.g. phones and tablets, but not so in regular offices. It has two fundamental problems there:

1) The computing users still require some kind of hardware to run the "in the cloud" applications. This h/w will still need provision/maintanence. Presumably though, this h/w will be cheaper than current PCs, as it will require less processing power. (Sounds like Dumb terminals all over again).

2) It requires superb internet communications and bandwidth. Presumably if a large part of the I/0 (screen/keyboard/mouse) which any user generates when using an application must now be communicated in a protocol across our IP backbone to "the cloud", then if the underlying communication services (e.g. broadband links) are substandard then SaaS based computing will be close to useless.

Are there any others out here who know much about SaaS? Am I correct in my scepticism, or was it never really intended to revolutionise the workplace in any case?

Opinions welcome,
Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228458

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 10th, 2019, 6:26 pm

Hi James,

JamesMuenchen wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
dspp wrote:A personal observation is that there are insufficient such companies in the UK to want to constrain search to the UK.

I know what you mean.

I tend to agree that the US is the bigger pond but if you want to avoid currency risk then there should still be plenty of opportunity in the UK

https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevorclaw ... b97050d46f
13 new unicorn companies (valued at $1 billion or over) have been created in the U.K. over the past year, bringing the national total up to 72....With a total of 18, London has more fintech (financial technology) unicorns that San Francisco (15), although marginally fewer than the Bay Area as a whole. And across the whole tech sector, the capital’s 45 $1 billion companies trumps both Berlin (10) and Paris (9).

After all, its not the number of winners you pick that matters.

For US stocks, and for learning about valuing SaaS stock I would recommend Saul's board on TMF
https://boards.fool.com/sauls-investing ... 20980.aspx

Sorry to move your post! What's fintech in a nutshell? More smoke and mirrors like SaaS?

Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228461

Postby Alaric » June 10th, 2019, 6:31 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:(Sounds like Dumb terminals all over again).
Matt


The relative merits of local v distributed options has been going backwards and forwards ever since personal and network computing first became possible in the 1970s. One of the sillier incarnations of this was diskless wonders. These were networked PCs in the 386 era crippled by the absence of a local disk. This was in DOS days before the bloat of Windows. The idea that all the programs were on the server, as was the data and the only local stuff was what would fit on a 720 or 1440 floppy.

I suspect, as you suggest, it all depends on the reliability of your connection to the central servers. Dumb terminals and mainframes certainly had rather less maintenance involved at the level of the individual desk. I take it "SaaS" is mostly a B2B (business to business) concept, but is Microsoft's attempts to get users to rent rather than buy licences for Windows and Office an example is SaaS in the B2C (business to consumer) sphere?

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228478

Postby dspp » June 10th, 2019, 7:10 pm

Let me be a real cynic.

I started work in the late 80s. Initially I used mainframe & mini applications, then migrated across to Wintel PCs (or similar, I remember pre Wintel) when they became prevalent. So I've seen the cycle, from sliderule to ai1 .... to now.

Most software used by the average person, either at home or at work, has been evolving over the last 40-years. The rate of evolution, from the perspective of the typical user, has dramatically slowed in the last 10-15 years. This was about the point where the hardware performance of most devices was no longer a critical software performance constraint, and also reflected the reality that evolutionarily the fairly typical software suite (OS, email client, word processor, spreadsheet, image editor, etc) had reached a balanced stasis somewhere around 2000 - 2005. Since then innovation has died imho.

So for the first 30-years the software vendors got a chunky licence fee every 2-4 years as users went through an upgrade cycle. Then OUCH, because hardware upgrade cycles stretched out - I ran a Win98 Dell Latitude as a lab bench machine through from purchase in 2001 to its death in 2012 - and 2-4 year cycles quickly became 4-8 year cycles. And users saw no reason to upgrade software.

This was a real issue to - especially, but not only - Microsoft. It also saw thin client type offerings from Google (and one upon a time, Apple & Symbian ecosystems) that were deliberately aimed at eroding its core mission, i.e. sell Windows, and Office bundles and corresponding servers. At the same time it saw Sun/Oracle getting into the cloud, and without realising where the threat would eventually come from (Amazon cloud) figured that was going to get worse. Also other killer applications started bypassing the standard delivery model entirely (I'm thinking Salesforce). And the Linux and other open-source proponents were also taking a pop.

The obvious answer for these people was SaaS, and that's pretty much why we are where we are now.

It might be useful for you to run the sliderule over Msft, as they are now highly profitable with a large SaaS income. Comparing them with Sage, and (say) Intuit should give you some interesting thoughts in and of themselves, as well as setting up some benchmarks to use when you are looking at other companies.

I don't know how all this is going to play out, so I have chickened out and just hold index funds these days.

regards, dspp

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228562

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 11th, 2019, 6:52 am

Alaric wrote:The relative merits of local v distributed options has been going backwards and forwards ever since personal and network computing first became possible in the 1970s.

Definitely - varying levels of remoting and distribution of both software installation and h/w location is nothing new.

I suspect, as you suggest, it all depends on the reliability of your connection to the central servers. Dumb terminals and mainframes certainly had rather less maintenance involved at the level of the individual desk. I take it "SaaS" is mostly a B2B (business to business) concept, but is Microsoft's attempts to get users to rent rather than buy licences for Windows and Office an example is SaaS in the B2C (business to consumer) sphere?

I think that SaaS pertains to both B2B and B2C. The supplier would obviously rather that it be another business, hopefully a large and frivolous one I guess! And it's not just Microsoft involved, Sage is definitely trying to "leverage" (horrible application of the word, IMAO!) SaaS into it's accounting s/w range.

Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228568

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 11th, 2019, 7:06 am

dspp wrote:Let me be a real cynic.

Fill your boots. But you'll have meet your match over here!

Most software used by the average person, either at home or at work, has been evolving over the last 40-years. The rate of evolution, from the perspective of the typical user, has dramatically slowed in the last 10-15 years. This was about the point where the hardware performance of most devices was no longer a critical software performance constraint, and also reflected the reality that evolutionarily the fairly typical software suite (OS, email client, word processor, spreadsheet, image editor, etc) had reached a balanced stasis somewhere around 2000 - 2005. Since then innovation has died imho.

Totally agree. Regards the basic design concept there's little people can do with those applications.

So for the first 30-years the software vendors got a chunky licence fee every 2-4 years as users went through an upgrade cycle. Then OUCH, because hardware upgrade cycles stretched out - I ran a Win98 Dell Latitude as a lab bench machine through from purchase in 2001 to its death in 2012 - and 2-4 year cycles quickly became 4-8 year cycles. And users saw no reason to upgrade software.

To be honest, I think SaaS as a concept really started when the internet became practical for home and business users alike. But it was completely unsung. For the last two decades we've seen a lot of applications move from disk installs to running on web-forms.

Once upon time people could only do various graphical and media processing work by buying a s/w and installing locally. Now one merely has to google "XYZ to ABC file conversion online" and the tool is available, often for free in a webpage. I'm not sure of business model (i.e. £££ for the supplier), even if there actually is one, since some software nerds just enjoy writing code and distributing it.

Matt

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Re: Investing in software and IT, e.g. Softcat, Sophos, Saas

#228579

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 11th, 2019, 8:44 am



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