Anyone for Marstons (MARS)?

[Alaric]

Of course in my case I do not want the money back, just the dividend income

That doesn't make sense as an objective unless you require the dividend income as an annuity substitute for living expenses. You get a higher portfolio value with an investment of 100, a reinvested dividend after a year of 2 and a gain of 5, than you would with a reinvested dividend of 10 and a capital loss of 10.

Marstons would seem more likely to give returns towards the latter than the former.

[IanTHughes]

Of course in my case I do not want the money back, just the dividend income

That doesn't make sense as an objective unless you require the dividend income as an annuity substitute for living expenses. You get a higher portfolio value with an investment of 100, a reinvested dividend after a year of 2 and a gain of 5, than you would with a reinvested dividend of 10 and a capital loss of 10.

Of course. As always in discussions with you, you make up the parameters to ensure your pet theory wins out. By starting from the point of view of your own pet theory being successful and arranging the parameters to ensure that outcome, it would be a surprise indeed if your pet theory were not to prevail!

Marstons would seem more likely to give returns towards the latter than the former.

What analysis, if any, have you done to come to that conclusion? Without consideration of such analysis, your opinions are useless to me and will be ignored.


Ian

[Alaric]

As always in discussions with you, you make up the parameters to ensure your pet theory wins out.

I would have thought it common sense and generally accepted practice to look at the aggregate value of your assets including dividend cash and concentrate on maximising that. If you just look at maximising dividend cash, that's a strategy out of line with how the market prices things.

[simoan]

As for Tullow, I was only commenting on it since you mentioned Next. Next is obviously that rare exception, and good for you to be holding it.

Dod

I still don't see the relevance of Tullow? I was using Next as an example of a UK retailer, with no overseas exposure at all, that has done well despite the doom and gloom attached by people like yourself to the UK economy. Its' my 3rd best performing share year to date. My 2nd best performing share this year is also a mainly UK high street retailer, Games Workshop. The point I was making is that you should concentrate on the quality of individual companies (a "known known") and forget silly ideas about macro factors such as how the economy is likely to fare ("known unknowns"). That way madness lies...

All the best, Si

[IanTHughes]

As always in discussions with you, you make up the parameters to ensure your pet theory wins out.

I would have thought it common sense and generally accepted practice to look at the aggregate value of your assets including dividend cash and concentrate on maximising that.

Of course, if the aim is to "maximise the aggregate value of one's assets", it would indeed be common sense to attempt to .... well .... "maximise the aggregate value of one's assets".

If you just look at maximising dividend cash, that's a strategy out of line with how the market prices things.

Well done, I think that finally you understand!


Ian

[Alaric]

Well done, I think that finally you understand!

What I understand is that you have a belief that £ 1 in dividend is worth more than £ 1 in share price growth. It's not a belief widely shared, except possibly on the HYP-Practical board.

[IanTHughes]

Well done, I think that finally you understand!

What I understand is that you have a belief that £ 1 in dividend is worth more than £ 1 in share price growth. It's not a belief widely shared, except possibly on the HYP-Practical board.

Oh dear, I guess I spoke too soon.


Ian

[Bouleversee]

All I can say is that if I only had 20 holdings, I would be in a very bad way. I started an ISA with ii a few years ago and it has 19 holdings currently, including Marston's (down 18.96%), Centrica (down 73.74%, WPCT (down 70.78%), IRV (bizarrely still showing) down 100%. The only 3 showing a profit are SMT (up 18.60%), Next (up 4.47%) and RDSB (up 3.23%). I haven't sold anything or withdrawn any cash including dividends, such as they are, but there have been some profitable takeovers as well as losses and the proceeds reinvested and there is currently £708 cash. Overall, without the cash, the p/f is showing a loss of 28.45%. Fortunately, my main ISA holds a large no. of shares, some of them (rarely if ever mentioned on here) have been extremely profitable and dividends are totting up to quite a large amount. I think one would have to be very confident in one's ability to research and evaluate companies to restrict oneself to 20 shares and then there is Lady Luck to consider. You never know what is going to jump out of the woodwork, even if you buy ITs or funds. I was quite prepared to wait for growth but never expected someone with Woodford's reputation to lose me so much of my investment. The Invesco fund I inherited is also losing quite a bit. Maybe I'll just stick with my own quasi investment trust which ought to be more than enough to see me out as I haven't yet needed to touch my ISA income.

[spiderbill]

Doubtful. I originally bought my fairly small holding at the end of 2016 when they were around 135p and they (along with Greene King) then dropped substantially. Every time they seem to get in sight of breaking even something seems to knock them back, and this is just the latest example.

I'm down on capital almost exactly what I've received in dividends, so it's been 3 years of wasted investment.

I'll wait and see what happens in the next few months but any business that is affected so much by a rise in the minimum wage would seem to be on dodgy ground, and that makes the dividend vulnerable in my view. Of course we could always hope for a takeover a la Greene King

[monabri]

I'm not sure why HYPTUSS is scaping a price of 118p for MARS at them moment - however, with a share price of 111p (London Stock Exchange) my XIRR has been 3.2% over the last 3 years. Not very good.

As I mentioned on the Companies Share board ( viewtopic.php?p=279631#p279631 ), I don't see how the divi is being covered?

[PinkDalek]

I'm not sure why HYPTUSS is scaping a price of 118p for MARS at them moment ...

If of any interest, you are not alone. See viewtopic.php?p=279863#p279863 over at Financial Software - Discussion.

[johnhemming]

Anyone else fancying buying a round of Marstons shares?

I sold just over a month ago, Partially as a result of discussions here, partially as a result of the IC look at how they handled their cashflow (the issue of a balance between depreciation and other work on properties. I was also unhappy with the treatment of the interest rate swaps.

Stockopedia provide an Altman Z2-score of -0.04 which on their site they say "This indicates a serious risk of financial distress within the next 2 years."

There is also the issue about them selling assets at a discount to the value in their books.

In September 2019 I was screening for stocks to invest in and they passed the screen. However, I am not tempted back in. (even with a price of 111). I initially bought at 127 and sold at 129 and 130.