Is anyone panicking yet ?

[monabri]

Yes I think they are. My suggestion was not really intended to be taken too seriously. Dignity is under an investigation, probably along with the other FDs as far I recall.

Dod

Top FTSE riser today...seriously!

[tournesol]

Think Terry Nappies….

Wasn't she in a group in the 1960's?

[SwissPaul]

I have noticed a few purchases by owners and NEDS. Is this a fight against the market, or is it - "this is a blip we will ride out and whne the bots see the true value then the prices will rise".

Good luck all

PS i perceive the latter

[gbjbaanb]

as dspp said previously, once the panic is over (and Piers Morgan has his mouth shut) then the market will rally significantly in a relatively short time. Miss that initial bump and you lose most of the gains that will slowly come afterwards.

I got that from the ebook Monkey With a Pin (a good read, free off the web)

The thing that is spooking a lot more doomsayers is the threat of recession. Laura Ashley is entering administraton, but I think businesses like that were already teetering on the edge for the last 3 years anyway (well, some of them, Next is doing well). What I do know is, apart from the real world (ie outside London) people are carrying on as normal (I shall report on the ASDA bogroll situation later if I nip down for my usual grocery shop of booze and readymeals and the rest are staying in with all their money burning a hole in their accounts, ready to be splurged on all manner of stuff they didn't really want anyway when they emerge from their panic bunkers.

So I'm not convinced of the recession argument quite as strongly as its portrayed, some will lose (airlines for example), others will not.

Oh, and its an election year in the US, so don't expect any of the media wailing to stop until November. They're all going to milk this for all its worth.

[Bagger46]

I finished deploying the last tranche of my spare non-market capital(ex essential reserve) over the last two days, last market order triggered just before 0950.

As I posted before, I prefer to get in on the way down in set backs, and I am not bothered if the bottom is lower, because when things pick up, I have witnessed in the past so many people missing the frequent sharp uptick on the way up because they are still hesitating to get back in at that stage(which means that they got no better prices getting back in than me overall). In any case invested money returns divis, which can themselves be re invested, even with the inevitable divi cuts to come it will be a more than good enough effect this time round.

My next sizeable tranche of new non-market capital drops into my bank account in early June. So I don't care any more what markets do for a while. I have been analysing the detailed WHO stuff on Covid-19 in China, plus looking for signs of China recovery (this matters a lot, it is China which will lead pulling us out of this, imho). I believe we will be looking at a V shaped recovery there.

Being personally in the at risk group(age plus health concerns) it would have been nice for me to spend more time in the garden(a potential beneficiary of this crisis), since we are now 'discouraged' from going out. Alas after a couple of hours just now clearing/pruning/forking the herbaceous border post that horrendous winter, I am knackered!

We are strongly discouraged from visiting a few very old friends and relations in Nursing Care at the mo, they are, it is clear even on the phone, already suffering really badly from being more isolated from 'reassuring' visits. I fear that even if they don't catch Cov-19, that there will be serious consequences as this isolation is bound to last a few months.

Bagger

[jackdaww]

to answer the question , no , but it does look dreadful to me , and i will not be surprised to see this fall continue for weeks , if not months .

[scrumpyjack]

You need to be very selective. There are businesses which are virtually having to cease trading but still have overheads, debt etc. Airlines, pubs, restaurants etc. It will be very difficult for them to recover, or the equity will have been grabbed by their debt holders. Banks will have a lot of bad debts. There are other businesses which will be carrying on because their business does not involve physical interaction with people, or not much. Mobile phone cos, some financials (car insurers), some services etc

There may be a V shaped recovery for some shares, but not for others.

[muttley]

I'm only buying investment trusts just now. I feel individual shares are too risky. I especially like these ones for the yield and discount

EAT
JETG
EDIN
PLI
WTAN
IVI





BTW. Ive just registered for this site.
Question is it really necessary to have a password this strict for a site like this? "Password must be between 8 characters and 30 characters long, must contain letters in mixed case, must contain numbers and must contain symbols."

[dspp]

BTW. Ive just registered for this site.
Question is it really necessary to have a password this strict for a site like this? "Password must be between 8 characters and 30 characters long, must contain letters in mixed case, must contain numbers and must contain symbols."

Welcome to TLF and please enjoy wisely.

The straight answer is "yes". Why, because the volunteer Mods keep the boards clean of spammers, phishers, and general internet low life and every little assistance helps. Furthermore please do not in the future use the topic-specific boards to ask off-topic questions. Use the topic-specific boards for their intended topics. Instead ordinarily go to the Biscuit Bar (viewforum.php?f=21) if you have TLF questions. In some special circumstances don't go there, but if you make that mistake you will be set right on the special cases.

Once again welcome to TLF and please enjoy wisely.

regards, dspp

[westmoreland9]

i haven't checked my account yet, but thankfully i haven't been investing in the last year and a half or so, and so have some spare money which i'll put to use in due course. i decided a couple years back that it would be a good idea to hold a decent chunk in cash, as it makes me welcome further market falls as a buying opportunity.

my main non unit trust / investment trust holding, is domino's pizza group, which hasn't really been hit that hard. go compare is the other main one, i think it's about 65-70p atm, but i am comfortable with either business model, and so won't be selling.

[Bouleversee]

Panicking isn't the word; too late for that. Suicidal more like. I cannot believe I could have lost over 50% of my life savings in 2 weeks, on paper so far but with several losses of over 90% and many more not far behind I think much of that loss will be soon crystallised. And to think I was feeling rather smug because my total return last year was so high. I was almost at the ISA millionaire stage, never having drawn anything from my ISAs and inherited some of my husband's but that will never happen now. Oh well, it's only money. What I resent more than the loss of value is the loss of time spent trying to keep track of it all and make investment decisions and the fact that the companies which have done so well because they were well managed, e.g. WH Smith, Greggs, James Fisher, can be blown out of the water due to something completely beyond their control: a virus emanating from a market of wild creatures in China which should never have been allowed to exist. Maybe my sister has the right idea: just stick it all in fixed interest, albeit at reducing rates. At least one knows where one is with that policy, can't lose the capital and it doesn't take up all your time.

[dealtn]

Maybe my sister has the right idea: just stick it all in fixed interest, albeit at reducing rates. At least one knows where one is with that policy, can't lose the capital and it doesn't take up all your time.

That's not true.

[Bouleversee]

Well,it has been in her case, having spread it around a large number of banks and building socs. In amounts within the protected limit.

[JohnB]

Of course interest paid on cash will drop to near zero now, apart from perhaps on the bonds the government will be forced to issue. It is proving very hard to sit on my hands and not recalculate my paper worth though, but at least most of my spending is discretionary, and so stopped.

[seekingbalance]

When the first bank goes bust the panic we have seen so far will look like a nice day in the sun, after such falls as we've had. Imagine another 50% down from here.

Is this likely? A bank collapsing I mean?

[Itsallaguess]

When the first bank goes bust the panic we have seen so far will look like a nice day in the sun, after such falls as we've had. Imagine another 50% down from here.

Is this likely? A bank collapsing I mean?

There were opportunities to allow banks to collapse a few years ago, when many might have thought some actually deserved to...

The mood-music coming out of Westminster yesterday sounded much more benevolent for businesses than even that earlier period, so why would it be more likely now than 12 years ago, given the reason behind the specific global issues being seen currently?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Pipsmum]

A huge big hug to all who need one. Ours are 50%++ down too. If a had a sou left I would be playing with the volatile penny share crumbs.... Probably just as well that I don't.

It is all the spent time nurturing these things that is resented really. Almost more than the actual £'s, shillings and pence. Maybe chasing a reasonable wage is just a farce. There won't be any businesses left to invest in at this rate, let alone get a job with.

One wonders whether to rescue the remaining 50% before it turns to 25% and then nowt.... so I've just stopped looking instead.

[bungeejumper]

Shiller CAPE on the S&P 500 is at 24 currently, and that's still 50% higher than its long-term median of 16. Okay, it's better than the ridiculous 32 that we were still seeing in January, but it still says (to me anyway) that a lot of the bad news projections haven't been priced in yet on the far side of the Pond.

Until then, my cash can wait. (I largely sold up last autumn.) Still looking for opportunities, but I'm in no hurry.

BJ

[seekingbalance]

The mood-music coming out of Westminster yesterday sounded much more benevolent for businesses than even that earlier period, so why would it be more likely now than 12 years ago, given the reason behind the specific global issues being seen currently?

I agree the government will clearly provide support, but i do wonder what carnage would be unleashed in between the time of a bank announcing it is bust and them stepping in.

I have no idea what will happen from here, but I do feel everyone is a bit too complacent, both in their day to day lives and in their investing. When you are essentially only reliant on rich boy Government officials (Sunak and Mnuchin are multimillionaires) I do wonder if they will ever really "get it" before it is too late. Add to that the US Senate's "need" to not be seen to being out played by a Democrat led House and you just see indecision all around. Hence these massive market swings.

[Itsallaguess]

When you are essentially only reliant on rich boy Government officials (Sunak and Mnuchin are multimillionaires) I do wonder if they will ever really "get it" before it is too late.

Well I've got to say that considering the hands that global governments are being dealt right now, I think that most of them are largely coping tremendously well.

In the UK there seems to be a current disconnect between yesterdays business-facing support package and the one that it's clear huge numbers of UK workers also need right now, especially the low paid and those on zero-hours contracts, but I really do suspect that this disconnect might be bridged in fairly short order, most probably coupled with the imminent announcement on the closure of UK schools in the coming hours or days.

We can't expect children to be walking the streets, and so financial support will of course be needed to ensure that parents can stay home where required without the additional worry regarding the loss of all pay, and panicking as to where the rent money is going to come from whilst they are asked to stay at home....

With that said, the situation really is so fluid that it's difficult to be too judgemental on these issues in my opinion, but I say that in specific relation to the UK, and I won't comment on the handling of the issue elsewhere..

Cheers,

Itsallaguess