ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Wizard wrote:Wizard wrote:Just before Covid we were looking seriously at an EV for my wife. In the end we decide that if we did get one it would have tombe a Tesla, not because of the car itself but because of their Supercharger network. IMHO no other EV in the UK has a fit for purpose charging network at its disposal. In terms of vehicles the new Polestar 2 has been getting some very good reviews, part of Volvo so owned by Chinese firm Geely.
Apologies, in light of the (wholly correct) point from Chris I would like to clarify my post.
The point I was trying to make is twofold. First, in the UK I would not bet against Tesla unless the other manufacturers can get their act together on the charging networks, my guess is that this is no different in many other markets around the world. It somewhat reminds me of VHS / Betamax where Sony focussed on the technology in the machine itself and not the user experience. Second, in the ongoing rush for EVs there are new models popping up all over the place which can move the goal posts, without a very clear understanding of the pipeline of each manufacturer it is hard to take a view on the likely winners and losers IMHO.
As an aside it seems the Polestar 2 has a very good infotainment system, because they have handed the design over to Google. As Polestar is ultimately Chinese owned I wonder what impact US / Chinese trade tensions might have on such an approach.
Thanks, in Europe, I don't see the French or Italian manufacturers being market leaders in EV, except in their domestic markets perhaps. But VW has the critical mass I think to take the lead in Europe. In fact I'd say if they get really serious they have a golden opportunity here. The market will consolidate, it already is doing, Fiat + Chrysler, Nissan + Renault and others around the globe. I think Nissan's early lead with the Leaf will erode in the face of serious competition from VW. And as a bonus, which was one part of this thread, there's every chance of a decent dividend from VW shares while you watch the transformation take shape. Maybe some capital growth too medium term.
RVF
1. You do realise that the Nissan Leaf and the Renault Zoe are the same underlying BEV platform just with different skins and some different monobox packaging ? The clues are in the battery cooling system (air cooled), and also in pack sizes and motor locations, but they have said this publically as well (
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... -in-future)
2. Nissan+Renault approximately equals VAG in numbers of BEV sold, but both are substantially behind Tesla in MWh/year of batteries used. That means that Tesla by far and away has the lead in manufacturing economics. I have previously posted the data on this, both BEV/yr and MWh/yr. One observation from strip-downs that I have seen is that Tesla have a $4k cost advantage in the drivetrain alone vs some of their peer competitors such as the JLR BEV. This Tesla lead in BEV-cost appears to be increasing, not decreasing. (and that is ignoring the autonomy play). Also the Tesla advantage in design/launch costs appears to be growing - so far Tesla has issued $10bn of equity (most of which it has burnt through) but if you look around on the net I have seen figures of the order of $3-4bn that have VW have spaffed on individual programs like the eTron and the ID3 with basically only failures to show for it. And VW are one of the good ones !
3. It seems that the Tesla 3 and Y are passing below mfg cost parity with their peer dino-juice competitors, and also passing below the total-cost-of-ownership (TCOE) on the first-3-years alone to purchasers, even outside the big cities (where they are wildly ahead due to emissions/congestion/etc penalty exemptions). This means that from now on any dino-juice platform is going to be at an increasing cost disadvantage.
4. Ford, GM, FCA, Toyota, Honda, Mercedes, are all AWOL on the large-scale BEV front in any meaningful way.
Put these things together and it is difficult to make a numerical case for buying shares in any of the trad auto makers. I too have wondered about doing so in the case of Nissan+Renault, or VAG, but sucked my teeth very hard and couldn't get past these realities.
I will be very interested if someone can put the data and analysis together to show me if I am making an error.
regards, dspp