Renishaw - Great Company, High Price

[Spet0789]

Stock off 9%, new CEO with the founder moving upstairs. Still a great company but glad I trimmed.

That's nothing - I remember back in 2011, I think October, when it released a results statement and was down 17% or so!

Best wishes

Mark.

We’re pretty much there now from the highs! Stock just letting off some steam. Maybe even an opportunity for some to buy.

I hold.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

We’re pretty much there now from the highs! Stock just letting off some steam. Maybe even an opportunity for some to buy.

Given the growth Renishaw seems capable of and the competitive advantages of its business, I think it's just about possible to argue a long term (10+ years) investor will do well buying at these levels - the forward PE has come down into the high 20s(!) Still not cheap...

I hold too.

Best wishes

Mark.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Renishaw is having an investor day tomorrow and provided a trading update beforehand:

Outlook
Notwithstanding current economic uncertainties, the Board remains confident in the future prospects of the Group. In our half year interim report, we forecast full year revenue to be in the range of £575m to £605m and adjusted profit before tax to be in the range of £127m to £147m. We continue to expect growth in both revenue and profit for this financial year and now expect full year revenue to be in the range of £585m to £610m and adjusted profit before tax to be in the range of £135m to £150m. Statutory profit before tax is expected to be in the range of £145m to £160m.

The preliminary full year results for the year ending 30th June 2018 will be released on 26th July 2018.

Statutory profit before tax is up about 50% for the first nine months. Dividend forecasts are being revised up somewhat, to 56.6p a share for 2018, representing year on year growth of 8.8%.

Best wishes

Mark.

[spiderbill]

They'd been getting low enough to trigger me to look at them again recently, but having risen 11.8% this morning's news it looks as if I've missed the boat (again!)

[ADrunkenMarcus]

They're up 14% now.

Best wishes

Mark.

[spiderbill]

They're up 14% now.

Have you ever considered a career in grief counselling

Oh well, at least the stuff I do still own is mostly doing well today. Might even get my money back on Cairn Energy if oil keeps rising...

[ADrunkenMarcus]

They're up 14% now.

Have you ever considered a career in grief counselling

I'll post again if they go down.

I expect the slides for the presentations at the investor day to be available on the website soon. They will be interesting to look at.

Best wishes

Mark.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Renishaw increased their dividend by 15.4%, from 52 to 60p. Analyst consensus had been for a 56p dividend for 2018 and 60.76p for 2019, so the dividend has already reached approximately what they were forecasting for 2019. We could do worse than ignore analysts!

Best wishes

Mark.

[spiderbill]

Renishaw have been crashing recently. Having touched 5760p in Jan they're now down to 3660 and seemingly heading towards the 3128p level where I sold them intending to buy back inside an ISA.

Is anyone else thinking about buying in or topping up in the fairly near future if this market ever looks like bottoming out, or has there been any news or change of evaluation that I've missed in the recent past? Having been a well-respected company the plunge seems awfully steep.

Would sure be nice to get onto a recovery play after all the recent losses, though I'm not at all sure we're anywhere near the bottom yet.

Spiderbill

[Bouleversee]

I would, but unfortunately no bell is rung when the bottom is reached. I topped up my Petrofac this a.m. as they had dropped a fair bit but started to recover, at which point they went into reverse again. Pretty well everything I own is doing a nose dive at present. I haven't bothered to calculate how many thousands my p/fs are down because it doesn't matter, does it, though the smile gets a bit rictus when companies get taken over or taken private for peanuts of which there are signs at RPC.

[Spet0789]

Sold half my position at 5300 ish. Either half lucky, half good or half stupid.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

I'll buy more if it drops further!

Best wishes

Mark.

[doug2500]

I was taking a gander at it's stockreport on Stockopedia at lunchtime to refresh my memory.

It's on my watchlist and I'd noticed the pricefall. Almost enough to pique my interest.

[spiderbill]

I would, but unfortunately no bell is rung when the bottom is reached. I topped up my Petrofac this a.m. as they had dropped a fair bit but started to recover, at which point they went into reverse again. Pretty well everything I own is doing a nose dive at present. I haven't bothered to calculate how many thousands my p/fs are down because it doesn't matter, does it, though the smile gets a bit rictus when companies get taken over or taken private for peanuts of which there are signs at RPC.

Indeed Bouleverse, and I feel your pain over Petrofac and RPC. Reckon between my shares and OEIC I'm about 18k down on capital in the last couple of months, if this isn't the long-predicted downturn then I don't want to see the real one. But then the stock market never seems to reflect the real value of companies - only the instantaneous value of what people are prepare to pay during whatever panic is possessing them. Makes you wonder sometimes if we should all just have bought Shell and forget about diversification. Presumably Trump's friends and assorted Brexiteers are making money from the current lunacy but the rest of us are suffering.

Renishaw seem like a great company (unless I'm missing something). I plan to follow them closely over the next few weeks and buy in again when/if we see something that looks like bottom. Not my normal LTBH or HYP-ish approach but some value and/or growth would be a definite plus about now.

cheers
Spiderbill

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Renishaw seem like a great company

I think their long term record shows that, for sure. However, the share price does get hit hard in cyclical downturns. We can see that in 2009 and the dividend was cut substantially but recovered very quickly afterwards.

I was fortunate to buy in during 2011 when I got a dividend yield of around 4.5%. To put it in context, assuming a 66p dividend for 2019 then even the forward dividend yield is under 2%.

Best wishes

Mark.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Renishaw has cut its profit forecast again today. It might become an interesting time for anyone wanting to get in, or top up.

Best wishes

Mark.