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Card Factory (CARD)

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westmoreland
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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#130236

Postby westmoreland » April 5th, 2018, 6:30 pm

WickedLester wrote:they have a cost advantage over clinton's as they make their own cards. i acknowledge it's not a blockbuster of a business, but 20% operating margins and 16% ROIC puts it in the top 5-10% of retailers in the UK. i'm not sure what clinton's figures are but it won't be near that.

Well just playing devils advocate but do you think they'll be able to maintain those excellent margins into the future? I can't imagine there is any "moat" around this business and I can't imagine it being hard to replicate the business model. In fact I notice from the recent trading update that EBITDA is down on last year and margins are under pressure despite opening 50 new stores so it's not really growing anymore.

I can imagine their margins getting competed down to a more reasonable level. Greggs' margins appear to be much more reasonable and sustainable.


it's not really economical to ship the sort of stuff they sell over the internet, so i don't see much threat there. the main threat would probably come from supermarkets and other bargain shops, since i doubt a direct rival will pop up given that it is not in a growth industry. the prices are very low, and it's only possible to make these margins by making the stuff themselves.

clearly retail is a tough industry, hence why i haven't been willing to invest. there are very few retailers i can think of with a durable moat - costco, walmart, inditex spring to mind.

CommissarJones
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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131077

Postby CommissarJones » April 10th, 2018, 9:03 am

So CARD's finals are out and look decent enough at a quick glance - nice performance in terms of sales and some pressure on profit, as has been well flagged, but net income is down just 11%, which seems to me like a credible performance given all of the pressures on UK retailing at the moment. The final divi gets a small bump, and CARD is signaling another special divi in the current fiscal year, but in the range of 5 to 10 pence a share. The stock is up about 5% as of this posting.

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131289

Postby CommissarJones » April 10th, 2018, 8:37 pm

The Evening Standard has a short item on CARD today with the following quote from CEO Karen Hubbard: "We have good levels of cash and we don't have other big plans than return it to shareholders."

Music to my ears!

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131296

Postby WickedLester » April 10th, 2018, 9:11 pm

The Evening Standard has a short item on CARD today with the following quote from CEO Karen Hubbard: "We have good levels of cash and we don't have other big plans than return it to shareholders."


Maybe i'm missing something but surely they have a lot less than no cash and even less than last year?

Wouldn't it be more prudent to conserve some cash in the business and pay down debt a bit?

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131325

Postby CommissarJones » April 10th, 2018, 11:34 pm

WickedLester wrote:Wouldn't it be more prudent to conserve some cash in the business and pay down debt a bit?

Point taken, but net debt was 1.72 times underlying Ebitda at the end of the fiscal year, which is within the targeted medium-term range of 1 to 2 times, so for now I don't perceive this as being a major issue.

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131350

Postby Bouleversee » April 11th, 2018, 8:39 am

Tempus in The Times today devoted half a page to a buy recommendation for CARD, headed" Many happy returns for shareholders" which non-subscribers may be able to get if they Google it. Am wondering if I dare top up or just hold and hope for recovery. Increased sales are one thing; adequate margins are another. Is there sufficient cover for that forecast 6.5% - 8.9% dividend mentioned in TT? The article says that cost issues should ease this year, especially if the pound stays at its present level, but how certain can we be about that?

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131353

Postby jackdaww » April 11th, 2018, 8:54 am

i was pondering selling CARD just before the results , visualising the SP around 150 in this punishing market .

but decided to do nothing and think very long term - good decision ?

8-)

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131546

Postby WickedLester » April 11th, 2018, 8:45 pm

Point taken, but net debt was 1.72 times underlying Ebitda at the end of the fiscal year, which is within the targeted medium-term range of 1 to 2 times, so for now I don't perceive this as being a major issue.


Well I make CVR's net debt to underlying Ebitda the last time they reported full years figures just 1.57 times and look what happened to them when they got a shock.

I don't suppose shorters would be betting on Debenhams to go broke if private equity hadn't ruined their balance sheet.

Maybe it's just my personal attitude but I have resolved to stop buying things on a p/e basis if I don't like the balance sheet. For that reason I have recently sold out of CAR, SAGA and LUCE all of which I bought after their prices collapsed on warnings. All three of these also have too much debt relative to profit imo. Saga is the only one that looks similar to CARD. Debt a multiple of profit, net tangible liabilities but offering a high dividend yield.

In CARD's case i'm not convinced that margins won't keep falling until they are more reasonable.

I guess it's just not for me.

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131552

Postby CommissarJones » April 11th, 2018, 9:12 pm

Bouleversee wrote:The article says that cost issues should ease this year, especially if the pound stays at its present level, but how certain can we be about that?

The Bank of England seems to have moved in recent months to telegraphing rather clearly that the general direction of travel for bank rate will be upward, although at a gradual pace. Indeed, February's Inflation Report had a distinctly hawkish tone. Obviously there are many influences on sterling, but I would imagine that a backdrop of expectations for higher interest rates has to be fundamentally supportive.

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131557

Postby Bouleversee » April 11th, 2018, 9:19 pm

CommissarJones wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:The article says that cost issues should ease this year, especially if the pound stays at its present level, but how certain can we be about that?

The Bank of England seems to have moved in recent months to telegraphing rather clearly that the general direction of travel for bank rate will be upward, although at a gradual pace. Indeed, February's Inflation Report had a distinctly hawkish tone. Obviously there are many influences on sterling, but I would imagine that a backdrop of expectations for higher interest rates has to be fundamentally supportive.


Won't any savings on importing materials be more than cancelled out by higher interest on their debt?

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131568

Postby CommissarJones » April 11th, 2018, 11:03 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Won't any savings on importing materials be more than cancelled out by higher interest on their debt?

CARD's interest rate exposure is partially hedged, according to the annual report.

Card Factory wrote:The Group’s principal interest rate risk arises from long term borrowings. Bank borrowings are denominated in Sterling and are borrowed at floating interest rates. The Group utilises interest rate derivative financial instruments to mitigate the interest rate risk on an element of these borrowing costs. Current Group policy requires between 25% and 75% of forecast floating interest rate borrowings to be hedged for the next 24 months using interest rate derivative contracts.

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131573

Postby Bouleversee » April 11th, 2018, 11:37 pm

Well spotted, CJ. Thanks. I still don't feel like topping up at the moment, however. Fingers still burning from doing so after big drops at CLLN, IRV and others.

westmoreland
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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#131752

Postby westmoreland » April 12th, 2018, 6:49 pm

annoying that i decided against buying this - but ultimately the question you must ask yourself before you buy any share is whether you'd be happy to buy and hold for at least 5 years if the stock market shut down, as buffett says.

well done to those who held through the gloom.

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#132539

Postby Bouleversee » April 16th, 2018, 2:15 pm

The special was paid in December last year. No idea whether it will be same timetable this year but IIRC the amount will be less.

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#132544

Postby Bouleversee » April 16th, 2018, 2:37 pm

This is what the recent statement by K. Hubbard said:

"We currently expect to declare another special dividend with our half year results in the range of 5-10p per ordinary share."

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#132545

Postby jackdaww » April 16th, 2018, 2:37 pm

hold on .....

8-)

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#142584

Postby CommissarJones » May 31st, 2018, 4:22 pm

FredBloggs wrote:CARD getting a pasting today

A typical market overreaction, IMV. According to today's update, like-for-like sales are down slightly against a year-earlier period when they rose at the upper end of the targeted range, cash generation is strong and debt is lower, and CARD's outlook for the full year is unchanged. I continue to view this stock as a baby that is getting thrown out with the bathwater.

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#142612

Postby Bouleversee » May 31st, 2018, 5:44 pm

A buying opportunity, then?

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#142662

Postby CommissarJones » May 31st, 2018, 8:52 pm

Bouleversee wrote:A buying opportunity, then?

At a price below 200 pence (the stock closed at 198.3p today), CARD looks to me like a screaming buy. The idea of topping up has been in the back of my mind for a while, and tomorrow may well be the day, as this looks to me like an excellent opportunity to capitalise on weakness in the equity of a quality business that happens to be in an out-of-favour sector.

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Re: Card Factory (CARD)

#142714

Postby CommissarJones » June 1st, 2018, 9:27 am

I topped up today at 194.3 pence.


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