CryptoPlankton wrote:Given football is a global game, the fact that only two of the 20 most populous countries (Brazil, 6th, and Germany, 17th) have won a major tournament suggests to me that this population theory may need a little refinement - especially as it is the most popular sport in many of these countries, including NIgeria (7th), Mexico (10th), Egypt (14th) and Turkey (18th).
My statement was
Gist: It's population times how embedded football is in your culture which will provide a decent guide to your prospects as a footballing nation.
1. China - No significant long term footballing culture.
2. India - No significant long term footballing culture.
3. USA - No long term footballing culture, and with a very developed and professional sporting system which sees NFL, NBA, and MLB hoover up talent. Football isn't competitive.
4. Indonesia - Not renowned as football crazy
5. Pakistan - It's simply not cricket
6. Brazil - 5 World Cups/9 South American Championships
7. Nigeria - 3 AFCON titles/4 times losing finalists/8 3rd place finishes out of 32 tournaments
8. Bangladesh - It's simply not cricket
9. Russia
10. Mexico - Regular World Cup attendees without much success. Won 11 out of 26 CONCACAF Gold Cops/ Championships, twice Copa America finalists, 4 times semi finalists.
11. Japan - Not renowned as football crazy
12. Ethiopia
13. Phillipines
14. Egypt - Record 7 times AFCON champions.
I could go on... but you have to go down to 33rd to find the least populace World Cup winner, which using the Wiki list of countries by population puts all 8 World Cup winners in the top 15% of most populace countries. Doesn't seem like there is no correlation. Ignore countries where football isn't the dominant sporting culture, and you start to list the most successful regional and world footballing powers.
Like I said there are other factors. Money helps. Having the tournament played on your continent is also a bonus (hard luck Africa), as is FIFA seeing your success as profitable (pure coincidence I'm sure, but for some reason the words Korea and Italy spring to mind...).