thebarns wrote:Goseigen,
"a huge helping of denial, blame deflection and even abuse..."
That's your personal reading of the matter.
Many will disagree.
There are numerous threads on this subject on various sites. Virtually all view this move by Aviva as unprecedented and unforeseen.
Disagreement is good. I'm just putting the other side as there are many many posts slating Aviva.
The move is unforseen, yes. It certainly is not unprecedented. There are multiple precedents in case law where the capital reduction has been upheld against the protest of holders. See the article I linked to earlier.
The market in all preference shares had never warned nor priced in the extremely remote possibility of this interpretation of redemption/cancellation/reconstruction, however one wishes to describe it.
As you said, unforeseen. Doesn't mean the market was right.
In normal circumstances, "extremely remote" might be true. The extremely remote event has become not remote, as remote things are wont to do, because the circumstances are no longer normal: the yield curve has fallen dramatically.
The House Of Fraser case was decided in 1987 and has been in the public domain for 30 years, indeed its circumstances may not be exactly replicated here.
Institional funds hold these preference shares, not just little retired investors.
Indeed you mentioned your own mother had around 5% of her portfolio in preference shares.
None of these holders, nor the market pricing, will have considered capital reduction at the whim of ordinary shareholders to be a risk.
If you depend on the market for your news and financial advice you are setting yourself up for a fall. Sorry. History is not littered but infested with examples where the market missed something.
What you are saying here is: If the price of an asset is high, this means the market foresees no risks to the asset, therefore the asset is safe and the high price is justified.
Wrong! This is pretty much the opposite of the reality, which is that when the market price gets high, people adopt the above arguments to justify the stupid prices they are paying. They thereby ignore the fact that any risk may exist and compound the hidden risk with the high valuation. Then of course blame someone else when it goes wrong.
Sure, they will all have had in the back of their mind that a bank or insurance company may have faced an existential crisis if there had been another worldwide financial meltdown. Prices of all preference shares had been increasing in recent years, despite interest rate increases on the horizon, as the perception by the market was that the worldwide environment was slightly more secure and thus the existential risk reducing.
Agreed, but the market was wrong. Lightning does not strike in the same place twice. They are looking for the same risks to show up and ignoring all the other risks.
The grievance of many is that Aviva's management is attempting in an underhand and dishonourable way to try on an interpretation of the law purely to shaft their own preference shareholders, no doubt some of whom,as am I, are also their ordinary shareholders. A narrow self inflicted attempt to damage the interests of their on preference shareholders.
This is an abusive behaviour on the part of investors. It is they who have done something wrong; they wish to hide from their insecurity and shame and to do so accuse a victim of what they call shameful behaviour, which in fact is nothing to be ashamed of at all. [If anyone doesn't recognise what I'm saying here, it would help to read about emotional and verbal abuse and neuroses.]
What have Aviva done wrong? It is legal. It is contractual. They are the first to announce this idea but so what? Someone had to be first to announce a spherical world but did they deserve to die? What investors don't like is that it is not the way they want Aviva to behave. They want Aviva to kindly write to them first, point out their intentions, give them a chance to sell out to another sucker, and then kindly compensate that sucker for his stupidity to show they are a selfless altruistic business.
I call BS.
And for what purpose ? Aviva's ordinary share price has barely moved in reaction to this and certainly nothing compared to the reaction of the prices of preference shares.
"Denial and blame deflection"? Tosh !!!!!!
It was already priced in by ord shareholders who are smarter and more astute than prefs holders.
GS