The Lemon Fool

Doubled my (small) position in these at YTM of about 23%. Worth a look for some risk exposure.

https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php ... 0221762932

GS

This bond brings back memories, not very good ones unfortunately, I think I lost on the capital and the currency if my memory serves me well. Probably a good punt with the Lira at these levels but once bitten twice shy as they say. Good luck GS

GoSeigen,

Do you hedge the ccy exposure ?

Swan

swanmore1 wrote:GoSeigen,

Do you hedge the ccy exposure ?

Swan

No, I'm happy to take the risk.

Looking good so far...


GS

GoSeigen wrote:Doubled my (small) position in these at YTM of about 23%. Worth a look for some risk exposure.

https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php ... 0221762932

GS

A bit of turbulence in Turkish Lira markets might be throwing up another buying opportunity here. YTM in 2020 of around 30% offset by exposure to the volatile Lira and likely illiquidity to redemption date.

DEPFA's latest results were so good that the German Government is looking for ways to extract a special dividend. I don't think default on this bond is very likely. The question is, where does the currency go, and one might take the view that it is not a bad hedge against Brexit sterling risks.

Links:
https://www.google.com/search?q=depfa+b ... ms&tbm=nws
https://www.google.com/search?q=turkish ... ms&tbm=nws
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/fin ... -1.3444757
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -elections

GS

You're braver than me. I have dabbled in these and was happy to get out with a small profit. The currency volatility has exceeded anything I've traded before. I think the exchange rate was 2.2 lira to the pound after these launched and has recently been over 8. The Turkish President is as mad as a box of frogs and no real signs of his influence waning, I feel it will get worse before it gets better. Still, everything feels like that at the moment so best of luck.

Kr1ck wrote:You're braver than me. I have dabbled in these and was happy to get out with a small profit. The currency volatility has exceeded anything I've traded before. I think the exchange rate was 2.2 lira to the pound after these launched and has recently been over 8. The Turkish President is as mad as a box of frogs and no real signs of his influence waning, I feel it will get worse before it gets better. Still, everything feels like that at the moment so best of luck.

Depfa bonds and Turkish Lira are both going in the right direction since March. Unfortunately I didn't have the liquidity to buy more, but so far these have been a good investment. Trading at c84 lira today these still yield 20% over slightly less than one year to maturity. Perhaps the price will dip again for one last buying opportunity?


GS

GoSeigen wrote:

Kr1ck wrote:You're braver than me. I have dabbled in these and was happy to get out with a small profit. The currency volatility has exceeded anything I've traded before. I think the exchange rate was 2.2 lira to the pound after these launched and has recently been over 8. The Turkish President is as mad as a box of frogs and no real signs of his influence waning, I feel it will get worse before it gets better. Still, everything feels like that at the moment so best of luck.

Depfa bonds and Turkish Lira are both going in the right direction since March. Unfortunately I didn't have the liquidity to buy more, but so far these have been a good investment. Trading at c84 lira today these still yield 20% over slightly less than one year to maturity. Perhaps the price will dip again for one last buying opportunity?


GS

Well, the DEPFA Turkish Lira bonds are no more, maturing last week at very close to the worst exchange rate for the Lira ever. In the end they were a disappointing investment for me: 15% profit is better than a loss, but over the entire holding period CAGR was just 3.7%.

GS