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RAVP

Gilts, bonds, and interest-bearing shares
PrefInvestor
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Re: RAVP

#239289

Postby PrefInvestor » July 25th, 2019, 4:48 pm

Hi All, Well looks like about 13.5 million RAVP sold this afternoon 25/7 at about 15:00 at a price of about 116.5 from looking at the trade data. Could this be Woodford selling ?. But more shares than he holds I thought, so Invesco too maybe ?. Price of RAVP looks to have dropped a bit. Both RAV & RAVC also down today - I did some dummy trades on these this morning before these RAVP transactions happened.

ATB

Pref

Walkeia
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Re: RAVP

#239364

Postby Walkeia » July 25th, 2019, 9:11 pm

Interesting - I see 1.3m shares PrefInvestor - placed link below - but still this is odd. If this is Woodford then i feel for investors in his fund. After the regulator was asleep at the wheel when he got into this mess I am sure they're now all over him demanding he unfreeze and return investors money as soon as possible = fire-sale of assets to anyone with liquidity.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... upToRow=50

PrefInvestor
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Re: RAVP

#239377

Postby PrefInvestor » July 25th, 2019, 10:14 pm

Walkeia, having opened your link you are only seeing one of a number of large trades that happened around 15:00 hours there. You need to look somewhere that will show you ALL of the trades for the day of 25/7. Right at this moment in time you can see them all using this link

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/RAVP/live

but if you don’t look there straightaway then what you may see is the latest set of trades for RAVP and not those for the 25/7. I believe that ADVFN provides the facility to look at trade data fir previous days, so if you don’t get to my link in time then you could try there.

ATB

Pref

PS I’d have posted an image showing the trades but this site doesn’t make that easy.

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Re: RAVP

#239382

Postby PinkDalek » July 25th, 2019, 10:37 pm

PrefInvestor wrote:Walkeia, having opened your link you are only seeing one of a number of large trades that happened around 15:00 hours there. ...


I think you missed the Page 2 available at the link provided.

PrefInvestor
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Re: RAVP

#239411

Postby PrefInvestor » July 26th, 2019, 6:07 am

PinkDalek wrote:
PrefInvestor wrote:Walkeia, having opened your link you are only seeing one of a number of large trades that happened around 15:00 hours there. ...


I think you missed the Page 2 available at the link provided.

Doh !.

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Re: RAVP

#239683

Postby Walkeia » July 27th, 2019, 11:42 am

Doh!!!!!! indeed - apologies at my oversight. Thank you

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Re: RAVP

#239795

Postby PrefInvestor » July 27th, 2019, 5:56 pm

Hi All, Well I overcame my concerns with this stock and bought a couple of thousand on Friday morning at 131.9. Why the change of heart ?. Well I had two concerns:-

1. The large Woodford holding and what might happen to the stock prices if he was to become a forced seller. Well it looks to me as though precisely that HAS happened this week, £ millions of RAVC and RAVP have been sold at very low prices (but it really hasn’t moved any of the share prices that much). The sells all looked to me like negotiated trades, probably with other big institutional buyers. And of course all the Woodford RAV shares are being bought by the company as per the previous RNS announcement. So it looks to me like the Woodford situation has probably been completely resolved now, and without too much damage.
2. Company profitability, in particular the loss declared last year. Still slightly concerned about this and I look forward to seeing the latest results (due in August I think ?). But with the GBP falling against pretty well every currency this year including the USD, EUR and Ruble, this ought to be to RAVs great advantage. But more than that given that it looks as though it was other institutions have bought the £ millions of shares that Woodford has sold, I am pretty sure that they will have done their due diligence, including looking closely at the company’s finances. I have allowed these factors to allay my concerns.

So I am back on board RAVP with a small holding at what looks to be a very good price, looking at Fridays trading I may even be in profit already !.

ATB

Pref

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Re: RAVP

#239937

Postby Walkeia » July 28th, 2019, 2:46 pm

Thanks for the update pref investor. I largely agree with you and I’m hopeful that the recent flurry of transactions will mark a low in the shares.

It reflects, at the least, the company’s confidence which I felt was demonstrated in the buyback and very bullish language in the July statement and possibly institutional investors confidence if they are behind the RAV P/C trades. Though I will add that I think we will need to see the August results before making any firm progress higher.

All the best

PrefInvestor
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Re: RAVP

#242905

Postby PrefInvestor » August 9th, 2019, 7:07 am

Hi Again All, Well an interesting new RNS has appeared on the LSE for RAV entitled “Property Valuation Update” and dated 31st July, please find a link below:-

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 67624.html

I find Paras 2 and 3 of this announcement particularly interesting, assuming that I have interpreted them correctly…..!

Para 2 seems to be saying that improvements in the Russian economy of late have result in an increase in RAVs property valuation by 1.1% to Roubles 109.5 billion, equating to a revaluation gain of £14.4 million at the Rouble sterling exchange rate of 82.2 on 31 May 2019. And that this represents an increase in the NAV per share of 2.4p for the ordinary shares. Good news you would have thought, though the RAV share price hasn’t benefitted since the announcement as far as I can see.

Even more significant Para 3 provides information regarding the likely impact of the changes in the GBP – Rouble rate this year. In the following document published by Edison the negative impact of this exchange rate for the period concerned was cited as the reason for a ~£120 million negative figure pushing the company into loss for the year, see Edison document at link below:-

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication ... nce/23717/

Note I suggest that you download the PDF version which is easier to read.

In this document about 2 paragraphs above Exhibit 5 you will see that a 13% deterioration in the GBP – Rouble rate was allegedly responsible for a £120 million pound negative figure that pushed the company into loss for that year. This they say was caused by the exchange rate moving from 77.9 at end-FY17 to 88.3 at end-FY18.

Para 3 of the new RNS provides the following new information on this issue as follows:-

Further, and as explained in the Company's announcement on 1 July 2019, the weak Rouble at 31 December 2018 had a detrimental impact on the value of the Group's property portfolio when translated into Sterling at an exchange rate of 88.35. Since then, the Rouble has since returned to its three year average of 80 Roubles to a pound, which will have a further beneficial impact on the property valuations when translated into Sterling.”

(PS I note that the exchange rate today is actually 79 rubles to the pound, a still further improvement.)

By my calculations thats close to a 10% improvement based on their quoted figures, and as a 13% move the other way was responsible for a £120 million loss then this change presumably should be worth roughly a £100 million gain ?. Hopefully this £100 million plus the £14 million described in Para 2 of the RNS will together be sufficient to overcome the £115 million loss that would seem to have been declared last year ?.

If these deductions prove to be correct then my concern over the ongoing profitability of RAV Group will have been addressed. Just have to wait and see.

ATB

Pref

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Re: RAVP

#243064

Postby 88V8 » August 9th, 2019, 3:05 pm

Illustrates their dependence on exchange rates. It's one thing buying shares based on the core skills - in this case warehousing - but when they suddenly need expertise in currency hedging that adds a whole new layer of undesirables.

Sold mine, not minded to repurchase.

V8

PrefInvestor
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Re: RAVP

#243083

Postby PrefInvestor » August 9th, 2019, 4:19 pm

88V8 wrote:Illustrates their dependence on exchange rates. It's one thing buying shares based on the core skills - in this case warehousing - but when they suddenly need expertise in currency hedging that adds a whole new layer of undesirables.


HI 88V8, Yes with the rouble being at best pretty variable its possible that there might be huge swings in the accounts YOY as the exchange rate changes with geopolitical events I suppose. This want the case when they were mostly operating in USD and it was part of my concern with their "going native".

Great yield here though and I have hitherto held RAVP successfully for some years. I have continued to follow developments here as my concerns were Woodford (now gone) and profitability (now OK perhaps ?, except for the currency issue). I have been contemplating buying a few more on 8/8 when they go XD making the price quite attractive. Still thinking on this plan though.....

ATB

Pref

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Re: RAVP

#247176

Postby Laughton » August 27th, 2019, 7:58 am

Interims out today.

https://www.theravenpropertygroup.com/m ... inated.pdf

The Woodford situation seems to have been managed well, a return to profits and despite the Putin and other geopolitical risks I'm a happy holder. That 9%+ yield is hard to ignore (for me at least).

Hopefully those much better at analysing accounts will be along soon to tell me if I've got it all wrong.

PrefInvestor
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Re: RAVP

#247321

Postby PrefInvestor » August 27th, 2019, 5:43 pm

Hi All, Had a scan through the interim report, glad to see them back in profit. I baled on NRR a little while back and put the money into RAVP - that was after their “Property Valuation Update” RNS which left me pretty confident that they would be back in profit this year. Figured that would give me a hopefully solid 9%+ yield against NRRs possibly questionable ~14%. Though of course NRR has perked up a lot since I sold !.

If there is anyone out there who is familiar with reading accounts I for one would be interested to here some unbiased comments on their latest interim results.

ATB

Pref

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Re: RAVP

#268939

Postby Walkeia » December 3rd, 2019, 9:39 pm

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 31712.html

Raven announce repurchase of Barnett’s holdings (looking at how they’re going to finance it).

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Re: RAVP

#268950

Postby Wizard » December 3rd, 2019, 11:13 pm

Walkeia wrote:https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/RAV/14331712.html

Raven announce repurchase of Barnett’s holdings (looking at how they’re going to finance it).

Do we know why they are doing this?

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Re: RAVP

#268963

Postby Walkeia » December 4th, 2019, 6:36 am

Do we know why they are doing this?[/quote]

I believe it’s more driven by Barnett and Woodford after the last year of press focus on their funds. In the summer Raven agreed to repurchase shares and took all Woodford’s holding and some of Invesco’s to prevent them breaching the 33% limit. Now appears to be taking the balance of Invesco’s holding. Surprised the equity didn’t react more but I guess we need to see how it will be financed.

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Re: RAVP

#268971

Postby Wizard » December 4th, 2019, 8:29 am

Walkeia wrote:I believe it’s more driven by Barnett and Woodford after the last year of press focus on their funds. In the summer Raven agreed to repurchase shares and took all Woodford’s holding and some of Invesco’s to prevent them breaching the 33% limit. Now appears to be taking the balance of Invesco’s holding. Surprised the equity didn’t react more but I guess we need to see how it will be financed.

OK, thx. Always a bit twitchy about these given the yield premium over my other prefs.

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Re: RAVP

#273140

Postby Walkeia » December 23rd, 2019, 8:45 pm

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 46464.html

Hi all,

Invesco (Barnett) got out of all their prefs and convertibles on the 12th Dec. I am focused on the equity which has been performing well since the announcement of Barnett's exit on the 2nd of Dec but I must admit I am scratching my head somewhat where they are getting the resources to do this.

In the interim results from June the company had ~83m of cash balances. The below is back of envelope calculations I have done this evening.

August - Woodford + Invesco RAV equity in August - £32m
2nd Dec - Invesco RAV equity - £52m
12th Dec - Invesco RAVP and RAVC holdings - ~£90m

So the two purchases of RAV shares use up the cash balances and significantly adds to NAV - makes sense to me. The more recent purchases of prefs and converts only has the below line.

"The Company is progressing negotiations regarding the financing required to purchase the shares and will provide an update in due course."

Given they're buying the prefs at a 10+ yield and convertibles at a significant discount too - my guess is they will be using bank finance or something similar. Pointless issuing equity - trading at a decent discount to NAV and you just bought back 140m shares @ 36p. Same for the prefs and converts.

Overall - fairly punchy, and hopefully positive, stuff from Raven. My gut still says they wouldn't be doing all this if they were not fairly positive on the outlook after all they have the option to do this. I guess I'll have to wait and see how it pans out

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Re: RAVP

#273167

Postby PrefInvestor » December 24th, 2019, 7:36 am

Hi All, Well this Invesco/Barnett situation looks very much like a rerun of what happened with Woodford to me, though of course their Raven holdings are larger. I guess if Invesco went ahead and sold their holdings on the open market that would likely damage the share price, similar to what happened with NRR when Woodford sold. As the Raven directors are all big pref and convertible holders themselves I am sure that this would not please them, any more than it would everyone else holding. Whereas the way they handled Woodford worked out very positively.

What happened with Woodford seems to be that though the company bought back the shares (at a big discount) they were eventually placed with some 35 institutional buyers (see the RAV Interim Report Chief Executives Review). My guess is that the same may end up happening with the Invesco holdings ?, Raven may have to arrange short term funding to buy them but they will then get placed with other buyers (perhaps).

This is only a guess on my part but it does seem to be what happened with Woodford. I see on the ADVFN RAVP board somebody there thinks that they might sell a property to fund the purchase, I guess that might work too ?. Clearly that might take some time to organise though.

No solid information available on how the purchase is to be funded though to my knowledge, just have to wait and see how things develop. Pref price has dropped a touch but not much.

ATB

Pref

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Re: RAVP

#273210

Postby Walkeia » December 24th, 2019, 12:25 pm

Hi Pref,

Could I check the RAV replacement to institutional shareholders. In the CEOs message in the interims I see

‘Following the EGM held on 20 August, the Company purchased 89,144,978 of its ordinary shares, representing 14.8% of the shares in issue, for 36p per share. This represents a significant discount to the Company’s net asset value per share. The shares have now been cancelled and, on a proforma basis, this would add a further 5p to the Company’s basic net asset value per share as at 30 June 2019.’

This would indicate they were cancelled rather than re-sold to the investors. I only ask as the resulting increase in discount to NAV due to Woodford / Invesco mess was an influencing factor in what is an small off benchmark holding for me.

Thank you as always,

Walkeia


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