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RAVP

Gilts, bonds, and interest-bearing shares
Wizard
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Re: RAVP

#228543

Postby Wizard » June 10th, 2019, 11:20 pm

88V8 wrote:On Mark's late site there was a thread, now lost, where the various Prefs were analysed in terms of their anti-Aviva moat, and BWRA and NWBD were deemed safe. Also ELLA but for reasons of attitude rather than contract.

Did anyone ever find out why the site shut up shop and whether there is any chance to recover the content?

88V8
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Re: RAVP

#228603

Postby 88V8 » June 11th, 2019, 10:00 am

Wizard wrote:Did anyone ever find out why the site shut up shop and whether there is any chance to recover the content?


Unless Mark is willing to cut/paste some of the more meaty threads over here, or someone saved it to Wayback machine and it can be found there, I suspect it's gone.
You might contact him on Twitter if you're a user, and ask him.

As I recall, it began unravelling quite a while ago. The yield links broke on his information tables, then the links on the model portfolio. Guess it didn't generate income for him, just became a time sucker.

Makes one appreciative of sites such as The Lemon and the work that goes into maintaining them.

V8

Wizard
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Re: RAVP

#228631

Postby Wizard » June 11th, 2019, 11:02 am

88V8 wrote:
Wizard wrote:Did anyone ever find out why the site shut up shop and whether there is any chance to recover the content?


Unless Mark is willing to cut/paste some of the more meaty threads over here, or someone saved it to Wayback machine and it can be found there, I suspect it's gone.
You might contact him on Twitter if you're a user, and ask him.

As I recall, it began unravelling quite a while ago. The yield links broke on his information tables, then the links on the model portfolio. Guess it didn't generate income for him, just became a time sucker.

Makes one appreciative of sites such as The Lemon and the work that goes into maintaining them.

V8

Indeed V8, we should all be grateful for the work put in by everyone that helps run TLF.

I am not on Twitter, some time back I did email him but only had the email address attached to the site. Ultimately he has done a lot for a lot of people and I just hope he is OK and in good health. It did not seem in character for the site to just close down with nothing said.

BobGe
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Re: RAVP

#228814

Postby BobGe » June 11th, 2019, 11:50 pm

Wizard wrote:I am not on Twitter, some time back I did email him but only had the email address attached to the site. Ultimately he has done a lot for a lot of people and I just hope he is OK and in good health. It did not seem in character for the site to just close down with nothing said.

If you check Mark's Twitter feed https://twitter.com/MarkTaber_FII you'll see he's still very active. I would imagine that the Fii web-site just became a bit of an upkeep given the lack of any new fii investments and the relative quiet in the markets over recent years.


P.S. A link from Mark's feed today for general interest.
https://www.globalcapital.com/article/b ... -bonds-not

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Re: RAVP

#228834

Postby Gan020 » June 12th, 2019, 7:50 am

From the Times:

...But what about another connection? It’s one that goes to the heart of those dubious share listings in Guernsey: a caper even Financial Conduct Authority boss Andrew Bailey finally seems to have spotted. It’s the Woodford association with Anton Bilton and Glyn Hirsch.

Who they? The executive deputy chairman and chief executive of Raven Property, the investor in Russian warehouses. Mr Woodford has been an enthusiastic backer ever since the business arrived on Aim in 2005 under the moniker Raven Russia. The following year it raised £310 million at 115p via another Woodford ally: stockbroker Cenkos. And, on the face of it, it’s not been the greatest investment. Today the shares stand at about 40¼p.

Woodford Investment Management owns 13.6 per cent of the business, while his old shop Invesco has 32.5 per cent. Indeed, Raven Property accounts for 0.6 per cent of Woodford’s gated equity income fund. But it’s not ordinary shares that have chiefly attracted him. He also owns two classes of Raven preference shares: a far better investment, given their high yields. The Raven convertible pref is the 12th biggest holding in his equity income fund, making up 2.18 per cent of it. It yields 5.7 per cent.

But that’s not the only link to Mr Bilton — husband of model Lisa B — and Mr Hirsch. They are also chairman and non-exec director of Sabina Estates, the developer of luxury properties in Ibiza. Via five separate holdings, Sabina makes up 1.7 per cent more of Mr Woodford’s gated fund. Not only that. Those stakes were the first to be listed in Guernsey: all part of Mr Woodford’s apparent ploy to pretend his fund does not breach the 10 per cent limit for unlisted, illiquid investments.

He followed up by listing his stakes in artificial intelligence group Benevolent AI, energy outfit Industrial Heat and tech investor Ombu. And who, you ask, was the sponsor to these listings? Belasko Corporate Finance, a subsidiary of Belasko Group: a provider of “fund, corporate and fiduciary services”, backed by none other than Messrs Bilton and Hirsch. As the financial firm notes: “Belasko is a Basque word meaning little raven.”

In short, in his hour of need, up popped Mr Woodford’s Raven pals to sponsor his iffy Guernsey listings. Belasko is the sponsor to about twenty separate listings of his stakes in the four companies — largely in preference shares that aren’t even traded. Add in the Raven stakes and the holdings account for almost 11.5 per cent of his suspended fund.

88V8
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Re: RAVP

#228879

Postby 88V8 » June 12th, 2019, 10:24 am

Kenny is still upbeat.
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/londo ... _sharechat

Dunno really.
Is all this alleged dodginess going to affect Raven.
Is the 'dodginess' a side-effect of Raven problems.
Are the FCA and that useless prat Bailey going to do anything. If so, when.

I can get out of RAVP and RAVC about evens taking into account received divis.

So I have. If everything is OK in a year's time, I can get back in. Meantime, us little guys are perhaps safer on the sidelines. Doesn't always pay to be a yield tart.

V8

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Re: RAVP

#228892

Postby PrefInvestor » June 12th, 2019, 11:01 am

Hi All, Well I sold about 75% of my RAVP at 137 on 3rd June - just in case there was any significant Woodford effect. Since then pretty well all prefs have been drifting down and this morning RAVP is 133 to sell 135.5 to buy. But plenty of liquidity there it would seem no problem selling ATM (unlike with some other prefs where you can only sell smallish numbers right now). I am still 10% up here on a total return basis so am going to hang around a bit longer to see what happens, might be a mistake I dont know. If the price drops a few more pence then I will probably exit just to protect against worse things happening.....

I am still interested in NRR (another one of the woodford blighted stocks, where he still has a 15% holding). No more RNSs re disposals though of late and WPCT was actually UP about 6% yesterday, not really sure why.....

Anyway interesting times.

ATB

Pref

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Re: RAVP

#228941

Postby youfoolishboy » June 12th, 2019, 1:36 pm

Is it the Woodford effect? Is it something else? If its only Woodford then I will hold and buy more on the basis the company is sound I can always sell when they recover if I am top heavy and take profits so will wait a little to see how much lower they will go.
The article stating the closeness of the relationship between Mr 'Little Raven' and Woodford tries hard to paint a bad picture so I tend to try and look at facts but even applying a strong dose of salt I am still thinking its at best curious a fund manager would allow himself to get that close to someone whose companies he is investing in with other people's money, I hope Mr Woodford is a good judge of character...

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Re: RAVP

#228957

Postby everhopeful » June 12th, 2019, 3:23 pm

Last straw for me. I have sold mine at 1.33 which is 7% more than I bought them for and I have enjoyed the income over several years. I will put the proceeds in to NWBD and sleep more easily.

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Re: RAVP

#229162

Postby PrefInvestor » June 13th, 2019, 10:44 am

Yes I too have decided that discretion is the better part of valour and have sold the balance of my holding at 132 this morning. You could buy at 132.88 I noted. Seems to steadily drifting down.

One can always buyback in, but if there is a sudden drop due to WIM (or whatever) then the capital has gone, yes the income remains and if thats your only interest then sobeit. But capital preservation is a key part of my philosophy so I'm gone - until things become clearer anyway.

ATB

Pref

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Re: RAVP

#230080

Postby youfoolishboy » June 17th, 2019, 9:19 am

Well looks like a bottom of some sort has been reached as the PI panic sells, presumably over Woodford potentially selling off his stake, seem to have died down. Is this a buying opportunity has something fundamentally changed in Raven to make them uninvestable? I am warming up some funds for a purchase as I cant see what has changed in the company since £1.40 ish recently. Any views?
Maybe further bottoms so am only going to be dripping money it to add to my holding.

PrefInvestor
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Re: RAVP

#230278

Postby PrefInvestor » June 17th, 2019, 9:38 pm

youfoolishboy wrote:Well looks like a bottom of some sort has been reached as the PI panic sells, presumably over Woodford potentially selling off his stake, seem to have died down. Is this a buying opportunity has something fundamentally changed in Raven to make them uninvestable? I am warming up some funds for a purchase as I cant see what has changed in the company since £1.40 ish recently. Any views?
Maybe further bottoms so am only going to be dripping money it to add to my holding.


Hi youfoolishboy, Well maybe. IMHO the Woodford situation may still have a long way to go. I think that it won’t be till the gate comes off his WEIF fund and most of the money gets withdrawn (if indeed that happens?) that it might get interesting, especially if there ends up bring a fire sale of the assets?. Personally I will be keeping well clear of ALL of the big Woodford holdings until things been clarified. He still holds a lot of RAVP, RAVC and RAV as I’m sure you know.

Re The RAV company specifically I confess that the transition into loss last year is also a cause for concern for me. From that March 2019 Edison report I got the message that they have been working hard to set themselves up as a RUB / EUR based company, transitioning from receiving most of their income in USD into these currencies. I am sure that as they are in reality a Russian company that all makes perfect sense. However given that they are structured as a Guernsey company reporting in GBP and with shares all listed here and priced in GBP and paying dividends etc here then I am a bit concerned that there might be a long term problem with this, especially if the RUB keeps falling against the GBP. Much of their declared 2018 loss was due to them having to revalue their property portfolio in GBP I believe. Guess they will continue to have to do that every so often for the purposes of the accounts. Actually the RUB has been doing much better against the GBP YTD so maybe it was a one off problem, confess I’m still concerned about it though. I was much happier when they were operating mainly in USD.

Be very interested to hear other people’s views on these issues.

ATB

Pref

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Re: RAVP

#230334

Postby Kenny » June 18th, 2019, 1:45 am

If any investor cannot understand a company's accounts, they should not invest in that company. That is a basic of investing that most investors abide by. A person should certainly not be expressing an opinion of the merits or not of investing in any company they do not understand, because they are misleading people who know even less.

Here's a simple concept - if the RUB during 2018 depreciated against most currencies, is it logical to state that an exchange loss -which is a non-cash item - was caused by the company changing to present their RUB figures in GBP rather than US$.

Here's another concept to consider when investing - what is the difference in security between ordinary shares and preference shares?

I am constantly surprised by "investors" lack of knowledge of what they invest in. Does no one these days make an effort to understand what they are investing in or conduct any research? I can see why Warren Buffett recommends that most investors should only invest in a low cost index fund.

everhopeful
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Re: RAVP

#230351

Postby everhopeful » June 18th, 2019, 8:57 am

Kenny wrote:If any investor cannot understand a company's accounts, they should not invest in that company. That is a basic of investing that most investors abide by. A person should certainly not be expressing an opinion of the merits or not of investing in any company they do not understand, because they are misleading people who know even less.

Here's a simple concept - if the RUB during 2018 depreciated against most currencies, is it logical to state that an exchange loss -which is a non-cash item - was caused by the company changing to present their RUB figures in GBP rather than US$.

Here's another concept to consider when investing - what is the difference in security between ordinary shares and preference shares?

I am constantly surprised by "investors" lack of knowledge of what they invest in. Does no one these days make an effort to understand what they are investing in or conduct any research? I can see why Warren Buffett recommends that most investors should only invest in a low cost index fund.


Do you really think that most investors read and understand the accounts of the companies they invest in? Those posting on this and similar boards are likely to be more sophisticated in their understanding of company finances than most but even here I suspect many (most?) investments are made without reading the accounts in detail. You obviously have a very large exposure to Raven prefs and it would certainly benefit you to understand the business in detail but to suggest that no investment should be made without a thorough understanding of the accounts might be unrealistic.

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Re: RAVP

#230369

Postby youfoolishboy » June 18th, 2019, 10:05 am

PrefInvestor wrote:
youfoolishboy wrote:Well looks like a bottom of some sort has been reached as the PI panic sells, presumably over Woodford potentially selling off his stake, seem to have died down. Is this a buying opportunity has something fundamentally changed in Raven to make them uninvestable? I am warming up some funds for a purchase as I cant see what has changed in the company since £1.40 ish recently. Any views?
Maybe further bottoms so am only going to be dripping money it to add to my holding.


Hi youfoolishboy, Well maybe. IMHO the Woodford situation may still have a long way to go. I think that it won’t be till the gate comes off his WEIF fund and most of the money gets withdrawn (if indeed that happens?) that it might get interesting, especially if there ends up bring a fire sale of the assets?. Personally I will be keeping well clear of ALL of the big Woodford holdings until things been clarified. He still holds a lot of RAVP, RAVC and RAV as I’m sure you know.

Re The RAV company specifically I confess that the transition into loss last year is also a cause for concern for me. From that March 2019 Edison report I got the message that they have been working hard to set themselves up as a RUB / EUR based company, transitioning from receiving most of their income in USD into these currencies. I am sure that as they are in reality a Russian company that all makes perfect sense. However given that they are structured as a Guernsey company reporting in GBP and with shares all listed here and priced in GBP and paying dividends etc here then I am a bit concerned that there might be a long term problem with this, especially if the RUB keeps falling against the GBP. Much of their declared 2018 loss was due to them having to revalue their property portfolio in GBP I believe. Guess they will continue to have to do that every so often for the purposes of the accounts. Actually the RUB has been doing much better against the GBP YTD so maybe it was a one off problem, confess I’m still concerned about it though. I was much happier when they were operating mainly in USD.

Be very interested to hear other people’s views on these issues.

ATB

Pref


I look at this way. Is there a risk the company will go bust if Woodford sells his stake? I don't think so therefore if you assume if he has to sell then there maybe a price drop but there has already been a price drop due to panicked PIs how much further will it drop before it becomes ludicrously undervalued and investors pile in? If I drip feed in now I am getting a 'guarantied' income going forward and assuming Raven do not go bust the price will eventually recover to reflect the under lying company's robustness, disregarding currency risks as those cut both ways as with any share that has mainly foreign currency profits.
So on balance I see no reason to hold back on my drip feed strategy as the only downside is missing a possible buying opportunity at a lower level that may not occur and if it does the pref should recover as the company is fundamentally sound.

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Re: RAVP

#230374

Postby Gan020 » June 18th, 2019, 10:17 am

Kenny wrote:If any investor cannot understand a company's accounts, they should not invest in that company. That is a basic of investing that most investors abide by. A person should certainly not be expressing an opinion of the merits or not of investing in any company they do not understand, because they are misleading people who know even less.

I am constantly surprised by "investors" lack of knowledge of what they invest in. Does no one these days make an effort to understand what they are investing in or conduct any research? I can see why Warren Buffett recommends that most investors should only invest in a low cost index fund.


If you wanted to profile me I'm one of those investors in the early stages of retirement who is looking for an income stream for the base of my portfolio so that even in extreme market circumstances me and my family will live happily ever after. I'm not adverse to a bit of risk but only in measured doses.

I spent 90 minutes reading RAV's accounts the other night and have spent more time reading Bulletin Boards over the last 3 years and gained what information I can. I'm pretty sure this is far more time than most people spend but I have the luxury of being retired/making a living from my portfolio and can do that.

At the end of the 90 minute process I'd got far enough to know RAV was not for me and not worth doing any more research. Imho the share price is not carrying a sufficient premia for the risk compared with other pref shares or fixed income bonds or equities.

Then we have the Woodford effect which has yet to unwind. It is his stated position in his video that WEIF will only contain FTSE100 and bit of FTSE250 going forward. Now, he mght find a buyer next week or he might take 5 years to sell off his RAV, or in 5 years he might have sold nothing and argue he wants to include some stuff outside the FTSE250 again. Or he might be forced to sell it due to redemptions. What I think I can interpret though is that if today he was offered market prices less 5% for a sizeable quanitity of his RAVs
he would be foolish not to take that since he is letting other stuff go at 10% less than it was a few weeks ago.

So, in refference to your point made some of us do alot of research, we just don't like what we see and having decided I'm not interested there's not much point in writing up on a BB why it's not for me. That takes time and I've moved onto the next stock. I've found it also tends to annoy people who naturally tend to defend their stock picks. I've often found myself doing the same and I'm grateful as some challenge has sometimes saved me money despite my tendancy not to cut my losers sufficiently fast.

I'll come back to the RAVs if they drop another 10% and do some further research. Until then out of the whole universe of available products and even smaller universe of "fixed income type" products I think there is far better value out there, certainly in terms of my risk profile.

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Re: RAVP

#230379

Postby GoSeigen » June 18th, 2019, 10:33 am

Kenny wrote:If any investor cannot understand a company's accounts, they should not invest in that company. That is a basic of investing that most investors abide by. A person should certainly not be expressing an opinion of the merits or not of investing in any company they do not understand, because they are misleading people who know even less.

Here's a simple concept - if the RUB during 2018 depreciated against most currencies, is it logical to state that an exchange loss -which is a non-cash item - was caused by the company changing to present their RUB figures in GBP rather than US$.

Here's another concept to consider when investing - what is the difference in security between ordinary shares and preference shares?

I am constantly surprised by "investors" lack of knowledge of what they invest in. Does no one these days make an effort to understand what they are investing in or conduct any research? I can see why Warren Buffett recommends that most investors should only invest in a low cost index fund.



Posts on Lemon Fool are supposed to abide by the principle of good faith; best to restrict abusive posting to other less fussy bulletin boards.

To answer the question: you'd often struggle to slip a cigarette paper between the two. Preference shares have no special status in statute. Their position derives entirely from their contractual conditions and some case law. Notably, like ordinary shareholders, preference shareholders are junior to all secured and unsecured creditors: in any insolvency situation where a company's creditor makes any loss the company's preference shareholders likely get nothing. Also, in common with ordinary shares, most preference shares are perpetual so that the holder is entirely at the mercy of the market when it comes to disposal.

For an investor it's prudent to treat preference shares as in the same category as ordinary shares, not debt.


As for investors' lack of knowledge, this forum is precisely for people to improve their knowledge of what they are investing in. It makes no claim to be for experts only, quite the contrary. We welcome both people who want to learn and people who will cheerfully share their greater experience. I hope new posters will recognise this and not be put off by the sentiments above.


GS

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Re: RAVP

#230384

Postby Alaric » June 18th, 2019, 10:50 am

GoSeigen wrote:
For an investor it's prudent to treat preference shares as in the same category as ordinary shares, not debt.


If you think the Company is liable to collapse or default on its payments then yes. If the Company is a going concern, in terms of what the investor receives it's equivalent to an undated fixed interest bond apart from the tax treatment.

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Re: RAVP

#230385

Postby Kenny » June 18th, 2019, 10:54 am

GoSeigen wrote:
Kenny wrote:As for investors' lack of knowledge, this forum is precisely for people to improve their knowledge of what they are investing in. It makes no claim to be for experts only, quite the contrary. We welcome both people who want to learn and people who will cheerfully share their greater experience. I hope new posters will recognise this and not be put off by the sentiments above.
GS

I am all for people improving their knowledge of investment. What I am not in favour of is a person who does not understand a company's accounts, posting that "there might be a long term problem" when they have no clue.

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Re: RAVP

#230390

Postby Alaric » June 18th, 2019, 11:01 am

Kenny wrote: What I am not in favour of is a person who does not understand a company's accounts, posting that "there might be a long term problem" when they have no clue.


You wonder though whether those who sign off on accounts have a clue either, when a Company collapses within a few months of being apparently given a clean bill of health.


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