Ouch! https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... 0/14665452
Bad, but not unexpected. CCD clearly the biggest headache. An interesting comment here (sub-prime safer than prime!), which I hope is not just wishful thinking:
Our customers are also typically less sensitive to changes in economic conditions as they are more used to managing on tight budgets and they have lower levels of debt than prime customers. They are, therefore, often better placed to manage a recession than prime customers which is why our businesses have proven to be resilient during a downturn in economic conditions. However, we have tightened underwriting over the last six months to manage credit risk during this period of uncertainty.
Plus points are that Provident have masses of capital (CET1 of 35%) in excess of regulatory requirements, have access to plenty of liquidity through Vanquis Bank deposits and are being prudent with lending and capital, with no proposed interim dividend. Things could get a lot worse of course, but at present it looks as though there should be little problem redeeming PF21 next year. It would make financial sense to redeem early as much cheaper funding is available via Vanquis, but PF21 is a retail bond and I suspect they will leave it until maturity.
There is a mention of the possibility of issuing some tier 2 debt, which might be an interesting investment if retail were allowed in. Would be good for the existing bonds in any case.