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A Santa rally?

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
Jonetc15
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A Santa rally?

#101136

Postby Jonetc15 » December 3rd, 2017, 5:59 pm

A very short-term look at the FTSE 100, following an article in IG, 'The Santa rally: fact or fiction?' - please see: https://www.ig.com/uk/view-ig/2017/12/0 ... ion--40961 for an interesting discussion.

There has been a break velow the 200 d.m.a., per http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advcha ... e&state=11 (and please scroll down for the RSI and MACD, currently negative). Looks to me as though a break below 7200 would not augur well. By contrast, it could be an important support level.

The P&F suggests a 'Bull Trap', per http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.p ... PWTBDANCNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20] (StockCharts). But how powerful is the current trading range?

One possible answer (per the IG article) is to wait and then buy from 15 December onwards. But the definitive answer is DYOR because I haven't a clue what to think with a macro-economic/political background that is a classic for its unknowns, known or unknown, as they say.

Jon
P.S. Give Gold (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD) as a possible seasonal gift that will keep on giving? So long as it stays above 1267? I'm not sure where or whether to buy frankincense and myrrh.

forrado
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Re: A Santa rally?

#102766

Postby forrado » December 8th, 2017, 2:36 pm

The House of Schroders claim …

The "83.3% chance" that the Santa Rally exists
http://www.schroders.com/en/uk/private-investor/insights/markets/the-83.3-chance-that-the-santa-rally-exists/

So, in the Melon Foolish spirit of “Christmas Comes But Once A Year” I just thought I’d share that with you.

Jonetc15
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Re: A Santa rally?

#103784

Postby Jonetc15 » December 12th, 2017, 10:09 pm

forrado wrote:The House of Schroders claim …

The "83.3% chance" that the Santa Rally exists
http://www.schroders.com/en/uk/private-investor/insights/markets/the-83.3-chance-that-the-santa-rally-exists/

So, in the Melon Foolish spirit of “Christmas Comes But Once A Year” I just thought I’d share that with you.


Apologies for failing to reply sooner, forrado. I've only just read your reply. The article appears to be very well timed. If action is to be taken I would prefer to buy an index tracker, having found the volatility of individual companies' share prices far too risky for a small private investor.

In the spirit of your reply, have a Happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year - which also goes for everyone in the TLM community.

Jon

Jonetc15
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Re: A Santa rally?

#110582

Postby Jonetc15 » January 15th, 2018, 10:49 am

Jonetc15 wrote:....P.S. Give Gold (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD) as a possible seasonal gift that will keep on giving? So long as it stays above 1267?


Interesting that Gold has risen over the past four weeks. StockCharts' graph (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD) shows that it is now in over-bought territory at 74.09, but the MACD looks positive. While the chart shows the daily price at $1334.09 (spiking up to $1340), Bullionvault this morning is currently quoting buy $1344/sell $1341. Cnris Beauchamp of IG writes: "...Now, $1360 comes into play. Possible areas of support are $1337, and then $1326. A move below $1307 is needed to suggest the broader move higher has ended for now" (per https://www.ig.com/uk/commodities-news/ ... rude-41579).

Also worth noting that the inverse correlation between the price of Gold and the sharp fall in the USD can be seen at http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD, with USD now approaching oversold territory (28.61). Gold hit a bottom exactly as the USD hit a top just after 11 December.

Where next? Of course I haven't a clue, but perhaps Gold is a hold for now, with a view to adding/buying if it holds above $1307 (see the IG quotation, above).

Jon

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Re: A Santa rally?

#110626

Postby GoSeigen » January 15th, 2018, 12:53 pm

Jonetc15 wrote:
Jonetc15 wrote:Where next? Of course I haven't a clue, but perhaps Gold is a hold for now, with a view to adding/buying if it holds above $1307 (see the IG quotation, above).

Jon


Maybe look at some gold mining stocks? I've been buying ABX, POG and CMCL, but would in no way recommend these. DYOR.



GS


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