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Weather outlook for the FTSE

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108560

Postby DiamondEcho » January 7th, 2018, 4:38 pm

bulltraderpt wrote:Fortunately as a day trader I can mitigate risk on a daily basis, but am getting concerned as it does seem a little too focused on one direction currently. I am also left wondering if and when we do get a pull back, whether the algo's will eat orders and send the market's lower than they naturally should given the happenings of the flash crash of 2010, although, granted, things are supposed to be more 'managed' now... :roll:


Many markets take a time-out, halt trading for a period of time, if the market drops x% intra-day. Probably useful for participants to have a chance to revisit order books and algos etc. But IMU the LSE doesn't have such a protocol.

@FredB, agreed cryptos have the same kind feel of 'easy bonanza for the masses' that was seem during the .com era; the talk, hype, media coverage and so on are eerily similar. I wouldn't touch them with a barge-pole. But has anyone considered or have views on how, if at all, a crypto bust might impact mainstream stock-markets like the LSE?

FredBloggs
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108561

Postby FredBloggs » January 7th, 2018, 4:40 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:Many markets take a time-out, halt trading for a period of time, if the market drops x% intra-day. Probably useful for participants to have a chance to revisit order books and algos etc. But IMU the LSE doesn't have such a protocol.

@FredB, agreed cryptos have the same kind feel of 'easy bonanza for the masses' that was seem during the .com era; the talk, hype, media coverage and so on are eerily similar. I wouldn't touch them with a barge-pole. But has anyone considered or have views on how, if at all, a crypto bust might impact mainstream stock-markets like the LSE?

To me, it is simply a matter of scale. When firms like Lehmans went bust it was all about scale and leverage. I think Crypto's could eventually have the same impact. But it may be on a much shorter timescale than we imagine.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108571

Postby DiamondEcho » January 7th, 2018, 5:02 pm

FredBloggs wrote:To me, it is simply a matter of scale. When firms like Lehmans went bust it was all about scale and leverage. I think Cryptos could eventually have the same impact. But it may be on a much shorter timescale than we imagine.

Looking into the tale of Lehmans again to refresh my memory - Lehman was big into sub-prime mortgages, and had a very leveraged balance sheet. Perhaps it was the combo of the two that did it for them. They were also active in mainstream markets, hence wider fall-out was triggered when they collapsed. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/e ... llapse.asp
Interesting to also see that on the same day Lehmans went under, Merrill Lynch [I prev. worked there] agreed to it's buy-out by Bank of America. Though by that time - 2008, I'd already been spat out from Merrill in c2003 with Lehmans having interviewed me at the time, declining my job application :lol:

Are cryptos mainstream enough at an institutional level to cause this kind of industry sector cross-infection? I'm not sure, most banks/brokers' views I've heard with suggest they won't trade them, or get seriously involved themselves outside of perhaps very small retail order flow. Reminds me a bit like private client banking and their mass aversion to taking on rich Soviet clients in the 90s during the break-up of the USSR. 'There might be a lot of money out there looking for a home and potential profits to be made. But the downsides for us in the longer term were unquantifiable, 'Know your customer' wasn't possible then in the newly ex-USSR states, and the risks possibly materially worse than any short-term profit opportunity.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108576

Postby FredBloggs » January 7th, 2018, 5:23 pm

I think we won't know what the fall out from the crypto bubble bursting will be until it happens. There are numerous things that have had an impact on seemingly uncorrelated assets. Whether the impact is short or long term or involves mainstream financial institutions we won't know till it happens. I remain sceptical of how a seemingly parallel monetary system can emerge without involving blue chip and central banking institutions being eventually involved. I am also sceptical of aggressive trading houses who declare no interest in crypto's.

As I have said before, things are as safe as houses till the day they are not. Everyone was happy with Madoff till he was caught. Crypto's will make Madoff look like kiddies toy currency.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#109210

Postby bulltraderpt » January 10th, 2018, 12:26 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:
bulltraderpt wrote:Fortunately as a day trader I can mitigate risk on a daily basis, but am getting concerned as it does seem a little too focused on one direction currently. I am also left wondering if and when we do get a pull back, whether the algo's will eat orders and send the market's lower than they naturally should given the happenings of the flash crash of 2010, although, granted, things are supposed to be more 'managed' now... :roll:


Many markets take a time-out, halt trading for a period of time, if the market drops x% intra-day. Probably useful for participants to have a chance to revisit order books and algos etc. But IMU the LSE doesn't have such a protocol.

You could be right, however the algo's could be queuing up before the average retail punter gets a chance to participate, but, you never know it's not always like that but you do have to be quick and trade with imperfect information, but don't we always?

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#109910

Postby DiamondEcho » January 12th, 2018, 2:59 pm

Anyone know what triggered the mini flash-crash this pm?
Per Google Finance:
7780 at 13.25pm
7755 at 13.50
7782 at 14.50

A -25>+27 spike in 1hr25m is not 'normal', but I can't find any mention of it via Google etc etc.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#109917

Postby BrummieDave » January 12th, 2018, 3:07 pm

I was watching the US Futures and the S&P and NASDAQ, but not so much the DOW showed the same -ve spike so I suspect the FTSE was following their lead.

What caused the US indices to wobble is probably the question.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#109953

Postby DiamondEcho » January 12th, 2018, 4:45 pm

Ah ok, thanks. FWIW those indices + the small-cap Russell-2000 [RUT] all subsequently made new intra-day records this morning. Impressive for a Friday...

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#127562

Postby bulltraderpt » March 23rd, 2018, 3:10 pm

You pays yer money and takes yer choice:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpSz9tWD8xM

schober
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#129131

Postby schober » March 31st, 2018, 8:51 am

Support for ukx at 7100 has been broken
https://tinyurl.com/y9qmcwyh
Unless it can break decisively through 7100, more falls seem likely
Perhaps a new trading range 6400 7100 with alot of sector rotation into more defensive areas?
Any views?

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#129146

Postby DiamondEcho » March 31st, 2018, 10:31 am

schober wrote:Support for ukx at 7100 has been broken https://tinyurl.com/y9qmcwyh Unless it can break decisively through 7100, more falls seem likely. Perhaps a new trading range 6400 7100 with alot of sector rotation into more defensive areas? Any views?


I think it depends on the time-frame. Your graph is veeery long term.
Short-term 7050/75* seems to be the nearby resistance zone above. We got through that [to c7110] on Thursday, but then pulled back, 'off-risking' before the four day weekend. The major US indices were all +1% or more Thursday, so as of now I'd expect the FTSE on Tuesday to power back above 7075 and then perhaps contemplate whether it has momentum to get through 7110.

* breaking above 7075 completes the formation of a bottom, per FXEmpire

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#129150

Postby FredBloggs » March 31st, 2018, 11:28 am

Thanks for the thoughts, I find a lot of this stuff goes over my head. However, FWIW, my feeling is that we've been here many times before over my investing lifetime. The present market feels very familiar and I expect over the summer months we'll go sideways within a trading range of the mid 6000's to low 7000's until summer is over and the shadows are getting longer. 2018 feels to be very much like a typical "sell in May etc" market. I'll see what happens between now and an often bumpy October.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#129166

Postby DiamondEcho » March 31st, 2018, 1:01 pm

I follow the daily and weekly forecasts from FXEmpire. I find the latter particularly useful for the overall direction and potential obstacles on the way. Here is the link for the week of 2nd April forecast. https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... 000-489282 He must use voice>text to create the forecasts and you can get some confusing typos like in this case 'I think that this will come down to the top of trade wars'. But if you listen to the embedded audio/vid you'll invariably figure them out; 'top of' = 'talk of'. Sometimes it's worth listening to the vid anyway as there's often points there that aren't in the text, and his intonation/emphasis illustrates and adds to his content well.

Note he is charting the index futures and there is some divergence from the 'cash index' [ie what you see on the LSE etc website] but in the scheme of things IME it's not enough to devalue his content. He flags up major issues ahead like geo-political events, which can be a useful heads-up.

This is his Daily for Tuesday 3-Apr https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... ket-489218

I also follow the 'Levels to watch' column at IG but that's not out until mid-morning, ie after all the opening action/news is known.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#139966

Postby DiamondEcho » May 19th, 2018, 10:27 am

FXEmpire - daily: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... day-503005

Weekly - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... eek-503071
Nice bullish sub-headline - 'The FTSE 100 rallied again during the week, forming the eighth green candle in a row. This is a very bullish market, and at this point although we have gotten a bit overextended, I’m not willing to sell any pullback as I think there is more than enough buying pressure underneath the push this market to the upside.'

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#146821

Postby DiamondEcho » June 20th, 2018, 8:34 am

It seems that some sources of TA have dried up. FXEmpire hasn't produced any forecasts on the UK or other EU majors this week. ChartsToday a/o yesterday was more about what had happened, rather than any 'levels that are in play a/o now'. I wonder if with major issues like the USvChina trade war rumbling on the chartists feel their TA is too 'micro' within a largely unpredictable geo-political 'macro'.

IG are still producing dailies, but they have a helpful steer given they aren't out until 1-2hrs after the open.


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