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Weather outlook for the FTSE

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#172534

Postby DiamondEcho » October 9th, 2018, 12:18 pm

We're nearing correction territory. From today's Telegraph:

'The FTSE 100 has slipped to a fresh six-month low after tumbling a further 0.4pc.
London's benchmark index has now plunged 4pc in just four days after being hit by a perfect storm of trade war, interest rate rise and Italy worries.
The FTSE 100 is now just over 100 points away from slipping into correction territory - when stocks fall more than 10pc from their 52-week high.'

The 52-week high was 7903.50 - 10% = 7113.15
we're currently at 7216, 103 points shy.... :(

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#172543

Postby Arborbridge » October 9th, 2018, 12:50 pm

langley59 wrote:Not sure how anyone can pick a level the index might fall to but it is a fact that we have a sequence of lower highs and a falling (200 day) moving average with the current price below it, the signs of a downtrend (both weekly and daily charts).


Well, some people think it's possible to get some idea from Point and Figure charts. Back in August this type of chart was suggesting a fall to 6900-ish may happen. The importance of this to me as a long term HYPer is not so much timing the market to get out, but the possibility that there could be even better buying points ahead.


Arb.

DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#172795

Postby DiamondEcho » October 10th, 2018, 1:25 pm

The easiest accessible TA I read/note is from IG. Issued daily around 9.30am.
I've followed it for years. It used to be just text and an associated TA chart, but these days there is additionally a video that covers the indices they focus on - FTSE, DAX and S+P. Today's video is 7m28secs, of which the segment on the FTSE is 3m40secs. I haven't watched these vids recently but did so this morning. It adds so much more, waaay more, detail to the text/graphic that I'll be making watching them routine from now on. Amongst that detail is a broader-term view, more levels to watch and consider, plus a lot of explaining of the basis behind why levels are significant.

I just wanted to highlight this point for anyone interested in TA on those indices, who hadn't realised what a useful additional resource the embedded vids are.

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices-news/leve ... 500-181010

DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#173245

Postby DiamondEcho » October 12th, 2018, 11:12 am

Having said that^, you have to keep in mind that IGs TA refers to the 'FTSE 100 DFB' https://www.ig.com/uk/glossary-trading- ... definition DFB being Daily Funded Bet, a spread-bet. It does not refer to the actual LSE 'cash index'.

How much that matters varies, but if you follow the IG-TA you'll notice that when they refer to recent daily highs and lows they invariably diverge from those for the cash index. Today's variances might be the largest I've ever seen, which for me following the cash index renders today's forecast of no use.

They refer to:
'The FTSE 100 found support right on the 6919 lows from February, an eerie reminder of the sell-off at the start of the year. It has continued its recovery and moved back above 7000. Yesterday’s highs at 7088 '

I noted the intra-day actuals on the cash index yesterday as: High 7145 [at the open], low 6998.

Other free-to-access TA I've seen also seems to refer to derivatives on the cash index, 'FTSE-100 DXB' being a ticker I recall.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#173326

Postby DiamondEcho » October 12th, 2018, 4:53 pm

The provisional close price (possibly pre post-close auction finished) has the FTTSE at 6995.91, that's a lower-low vs Thursday's low at 6998.02, and is a negative indicator. It was looking like it would avoid another lower-low right up until 4.27pm! :roll:

DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#173382

Postby DiamondEcho » October 12th, 2018, 7:55 pm

Yep, so that was the actual close, and it marked the 7th session with a lower low... jeez...
It'd be a ray of light to see the 3 US major's hold-the-line and close +ve later this pm.


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