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Trend Following...

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
runnygum
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Trend Following...

#60119

Postby runnygum » June 14th, 2017, 2:00 pm

Im considering some exposure to trend following based on zero correlation to the wider market.

However rather than a DIY self managed approach with the requisite time/effort/cost I was looking at ETF's or Funds. However these seem to be thin on the ground. Winton Capital Management embodies the approach but is likely out of reach for the retail investor.

Any thoughts or suggestions from others looking at the same would be appreciated.

DrBunsenHoneydew
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Re: Trend Following...

#70260

Postby DrBunsenHoneydew » July 28th, 2017, 1:39 pm

runnygum wrote:Im considering some exposure to trend following based on zero correlation to the wider market.

However rather than a DIY self managed approach with the requisite time/effort/cost I was looking at ETF's or Funds. However these seem to be thin on the ground. Winton Capital Management embodies the approach but is likely out of reach for the retail investor.

Any thoughts or suggestions from others looking at the same would be appreciated.

Winton has just started a range of Funds that should make it easier https://www.winton.com/en/funds

saechunu
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Re: Trend Following...

#70266

Postby saechunu » July 28th, 2017, 2:03 pm

runnygum wrote:However rather than a DIY self managed approach with the requisite time/effort/cost I was looking at ETF's or Funds.


Uncorrelated returns would be great.

But, I think the key problem you'll face with relying on someone else's system - someone else's black box if you will - is that during any protracted period of poor performance you'll almost inevitably become jaded with it. You'll be comparing it to other systems, or other approaches entirely, which have more appealing recent return profiles. Progressively losing faith, you may then abandon your initial system/fund choice. Probably just a matter of time.

If you're really lucky, you'll only succumb to such performance-chasing after pocketing many years of good returns. But, the chances are you may experience the opposite - early weak returns - since you'll have made your initial system/fund choice based upon decent historic performance, inviting the very real prospect of market conditions becoming ill-suited to that system early within your holding period.

Are you genuinely prepared to countenance sticking with a weak-performing system for years after initial purchase? For a fundamentals-based fund, where you *know* and believe in the asset selection criteria, I think it is possible to keep that faith, holding for the good times to come, but for a trend-following system? I suspect not.

SentimentRules
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Re: Trend Following...

#234452

Postby SentimentRules » July 6th, 2019, 6:38 pm

Are you genuinely prepared to countenance sticking with a weak-performing system for years after initial purchase? For a fundamentals-based fund, where you *know* and believe in the asset selection criteria

Where you *know*... why pay a fund manager then?

And if its weak after initial purchase for years, they are pretty useless then. A Woodford special.. ... I'm sorry....but you cant have your money lol

Hard to think of a technical or fundamental system that can fail in bull markets , although many exist.

Need to analyse these funds performances in past bear markets. If they didn't return those years, a child could do better.

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Re: Trend Following...

#234741

Postby bernie » July 7th, 2019, 10:56 pm

DrBunsenHoneydew wrote:
runnygum wrote:Im considering some exposure to trend following based on zero correlation to the wider market.

However rather than a DIY self managed approach with the requisite time/effort/cost I was looking at ETF's or Funds. However these seem to be thin on the ground. Winton Capital Management embodies the approach but is likely out of reach for the retail investor.

Any thoughts or suggestions from others looking at the same would be appreciated.

Winton has just started a range of Funds that should make it easier https://www.winton.com/en/funds


They have a fund listed on Hargreaves: https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discoun ... cumulation

There is a similar fund from Dunn, but there is a 25% performance fee:

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discoun ... cumulation

Alaric
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Re: Trend Following...

#234742

Postby Alaric » July 7th, 2019, 11:11 pm

bernie wrote:They have a fund listed on Hargreaves


"Absolute Return" funds don't seem to have done that well in practice. Perhaps all the competing fund managers with marginally different strategies cancel one another out so the market as a whole in these funds defaults to the return on cash.

bernie
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Re: Trend Following...

#252165

Postby bernie » September 16th, 2019, 10:52 am

Alaric wrote:
bernie wrote:They have a fund listed on Hargreaves


"Absolute Return" funds don't seem to have done that well in practice. Perhaps all the competing fund managers with marginally different strategies cancel one another out so the market as a whole in these funds defaults to the return on cash.


I agree. But hedge funds haven't done that well either.


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