The Lemon Fool

On the occasions that I look at this board, I never see any clear predictions.

It's always: IF this thing happens, THEN this other thing MIGHT happen.

In other words, it is always at least one step removed from making a prediction.

Now I don't expect predictions to always be correct and I understand the aim is to get it right more often than wrong.

But it would be nice to read an actual prediction once in a while! So I'll leave this thread open for any unambiguous predictions.

I'll be watching with interest. Thank-you.

The sun will come up tomorrow.

This thread will fill up with oblique posts, none of which are serious, unqualified predictions.

Trump will win.

moorfield wrote:Trump will win.

Smoked one out!!

MrFoolish wrote:n other words, it is always at least one step removed from making a prediction.

But it would be nice to read an actual prediction once in a while!

Are you being a bit harsh here? Putting conditions on a prediction can still and does allow it to be an actual prediction.
Folk put conditions on it because predicting correctly is too difficult, thus conditions leave wriggle room when the prediction lands on its face.
Making an unconditional prediction risks people finishing up looking like a 'mr foolish'.

MrFoolish wrote:On the occasions that I look at this board, I never see any clear predictions.

It's always: IF this thing happens, THEN this other thing MIGHT happen.

In other words, it is always at least one step removed from making a prediction.

Now I don't expect predictions to always be correct and I understand the aim is to get it right more often than wrong.

But it would be nice to read an actual prediction once in a while! So I'll leave this thread open for any unambiguous predictions.

I'll be watching with interest. Thank-you.

Do lead the way. This board has been quiet for a very long time.

GS

Looking at this from an investment perspective very few people would have expected the market to be in the state it is today had they estimated/forecast what was going to happen looking forward at 1st Jan 2020.

Hence all forecasts can be derailed. If, for example, the sun did not come up tomorrow that would have such an impact that the markets would be unlikely to open at all.

One thing I forecast in February that was wrong was I expected the price of iron ore to go down. Forecasting is always such a core part of investment (where people should recognise that a range of possibilities should normally be considered) that I cannot see the merits of trying to isolate out that part.

johnhemming wrote:Forecasting is always such a core part of investment

Some people around here might own one life strategy fund; that's their sole investment. I don't think forecasting need have any part in doing that, on the part of the investor or the fund manager, if I'm thinking about the same type of forecasting.

moorfield wrote:Trump will win.

Biden will win.

As the number of posts on a TLF thread increases, eventually it will turn into a discussion about what is allowed to be discussed on HYP-Practical.

I'll stick my neck out.

MBSP and MBSR are deferred shares of Manchester Building Society. They have been trading in a range (a flag/pennant in TA terms) since June 2020.

Following the Supreme Court hearing in their case against Grant Thornton the price has set a higher low and a higher high within the longer 2-year up-trend since the low in 2019 -- almost exactly the date that a poster on ADVFN advised that these shares should be avoided at all costs.

Their price seems to be breaking out, and fixed interest securities like to move in a fairly straight line once they start, so I am going to predict that MBSR and maybe MBSP too will be trading in the 30s [bid and offer] by year-end.



GS

I've got some. I'm never short of opinions!! ...

Biden will win but not by a landslide. The dems will push through a big stimulus package which will mean US market ends year strongly.

A brexit deal will be done but neither remainers or Brexiteers will be happy with it. UK recovery will be slow cause of structural issues and UK market will underperform.

There will be a 10% correction, but prices will bounce back, cause returns so poor on bonds and gold. Gold lost momentum and will go sideways, or fall slightly, but not turn into a rout.

Future investments growth will be China, Pacific rim and 5g/Automation. Especially China, whose economy is the only one booming. Correction perhaps to Tesla, Netflix and Zoom.

Adamski wrote:I've got some. I'm never short of opinions!! ...

Biden will win but not by a landslide. The dems will push through a big stimulus package which will mean US market ends year strongly.

A brexit deal will be done but neither remainers or Brexiteers will be happy with it. UK recovery will be slow cause of structural issues and UK market will underperform.

There will be a 10% correction, but prices will bounce back, cause returns so poor on bonds and gold. Gold lost momentum and will go sideways, or fall slightly, but not turn into a rout.

Future investments growth will be China, Pacific rim and 5g/Automation. Especially China, whose economy is the only one booming. Correction perhaps to Tesla, Netflix and Zoom.

Nice set of predictions but some of them lack timescales so miss the unambiguous target.

GS

The one prediction I can make with complete certainty is that I'll always have one advantageous strategy option that most fund managers don't. And that is the ability to go heavily into cash whenever I don't like the look of things.

BJ (80% cash in 2008, 65% cash now.)

bungeejumper wrote:The one prediction I can make with complete certainty is that I'll always have one advantageous strategy option that most fund managers don't. And that is the ability to go heavily into cash whenever I don't like the look of things.

BJ (80% cash in 2008, 65% cash now.)

I'm not sure if that's a prediction or just a declaration of a strategy.

Arb.

Arborbridge wrote:I'm not sure if that's a prediction or just a declaration of a strategy.

D'you know, I just knew somebody would raise that objection?

BJ

If it's a strategy, shouldn't it be in Investment Strategies? Unless it's a HYP strategy of course.

I'll get me hat.

GoSeigen wrote:

MrFoolish wrote:On the occasions that I look at this board, I never see any clear predictions.

It's always: IF this thing happens, THEN this other thing MIGHT happen.

In other words, it is always at least one step removed from making a prediction.

Now I don't expect predictions to always be correct and I understand the aim is to get it right more often than wrong.

But it would be nice to read an actual prediction once in a while! So I'll leave this thread open for any unambiguous predictions.

I'll be watching with interest. Thank-you.

Do lead the way. This board has been quiet for a very long time.

GS

Well I don't do TA. I'm just asking as an interested observer. Surely someone can predict something based on the charts?

But having started this thread, I'll make 3 predictions:

1. Legal & General will be higher 6 months from now. Boris wants a Brexit deal, cos otherwise he won't be very popular, which is all he cares about. So a fundamentally strong share like L&G will recover.

2. Pub shares will be higher 1 year from now. There should be a vaccine well before then. People will get back to eating and drinking out. (Some smaller, independent pubs will close - but this will leave more market share for the big quoted boys.)

3. Tobacco shares will continue a long term decline. Fewer people are smoking. But the HYPers will say "the time is now" and will continue to buy.

MrFoolish wrote:On the occasions that I look at this board, I never see any clear predictions.

It's always: IF this thing happens, THEN this other thing MIGHT happen.

In other words, it is always at least one step removed from making a prediction.

Now I don't expect predictions to always be correct and I understand the aim is to get it right more often than wrong.

But it would be nice to read an actual prediction once in a while! So I'll leave this thread open for any unambiguous predictions.

I'll be watching with interest. Thank-you.

If the OP had a genuine interest in this subject he might care to comment on the results of his exercise?


GS