Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Gold at the crossroads

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Gold at the crossroads

#46674

Postby Jonetc15 » April 18th, 2017, 4:33 pm

Since mid-March I have been meaning to write a post to the effect that Gold was/is ‘at the crossroads’ – i.e. it was clearly above the 50 dma but still faced major overhead resistance due to the 200 dma. (The 50 coould possibly cross up through the 200.) This can be seen from StockCharts at http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD, which on the face of it shows a clear break above the 200 dma, as a result of which Gold is looking possibly overbought on the RSI, well above 70. During this period (from mid-March) the MACD has been positive. That said, I could not have predicted geopolitical events such as the USA’s action in Syria and the dramatic heightening of tension between the USA and North Korea, which together have obviously been positive for Gold. In passing, it’s worth noting that since the Brexit referendum Gold has been a good hedge against the GBP’s weakness.

However, the P&F chart – at http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.p ... PWTBDANCNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20] - makes me wonder whether Gold at 1291.90 marks at a least temporary high. I think that I am right in saying that our summer is seasonally a time of weak demand for Gold.

One more factor to consider is the USD, usually moving inversely/opposite to Gold. I found it interesting that from mid-March until early April the USD’s upward recovery – at http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD - did not prevent Gold’s move in the same direction, and that in the second week of April the USD was weak while Gold was strong.

Jon
P.S. Yes, even I have heard that a UK general election is in the offing…
P.P.S. If the second link doesn't work I'll be massively grateful for a repair - I can't immediately find the most helpful guidance that I received some time ago.

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Gold at the crossroads

#46678

Postby Jonetc15 » April 18th, 2017, 4:51 pm

For OC: I thought that I had set the P&F for 'Close Only' rather than 'High/Low', which you quite rightly don't like.

Jon

Jonetc15
Lemon Slice
Posts: 464
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:27 pm
Has thanked: 275 times
Been thanked: 44 times

Re: Gold at the crossroads

#46870

Postby Jonetc15 » April 19th, 2017, 11:46 am

1nv35t wrote:
Gold is just another currency. Other currencies fluctuate against that in a broadly unpredictable manner. Being commonly measured relative to the US Dollar as the US Dollar relatively declines so the price of gold might be expected to rise in US$ terms and vice-versa; But where other apparent risks/factors could see both moving in the same direction.


Thanks, 1nv35t - I fully take your point. The timescale for my comparison was far too short and the paragraph in my post is a distraction too.

I'll be very glad to see any views on Gold as an investment, especially from folk who disagree with my 'Hold' suggestion.

Jon

Halicarnassus
Lemon Slice
Posts: 343
Joined: February 22nd, 2017, 1:23 am
Been thanked: 3 times

Re: Gold at the crossroads

#47119

Postby Halicarnassus » April 20th, 2017, 12:54 am

Moderator Message:
Please add some more verbage when posting links please. Raptor. Have added the title for the piece.


How Warren Buffett Looks at Stocks vs. Gold Investing

Buffetism... https://dailyreckoning.com/how-warren-b ... investing/

Halicarnassus
Lemon Slice
Posts: 343
Joined: February 22nd, 2017, 1:23 am
Been thanked: 3 times

Re: Gold at the crossroads

#47415

Postby Halicarnassus » April 20th, 2017, 9:54 pm

Halicarnassuse wrote:
Moderator Message:
Please add some more verbage when posting links please. Raptor. Have added the title for the piece.


How Warren Buffett Looks at Stocks vs. Gold Investing

Buffetism... https://dailyreckoning.com/how-warren-b ... investing/


Ah OK. Sorry I thought the post above and specifically WB's take on it was worth a read. Over the long term, gold doesn't offer the returns to justify the risks IMHO.


Return to “Technical Analysis”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests