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Weather outlook for the FTSE

Reading price charts which may give you direction in the market using established TA methodology
DiamondEcho
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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108369

Postby DiamondEcho » January 6th, 2018, 6:00 pm

bulltraderpt wrote:One wonders when this bull market will genuinely either (a) pull back, or (b) crash.
Some commentators think it has 18 months plus left, others are not so sure. One things for sure, when I see people talking about wanting to buy crypto or start to trade shares (as I saw recently), I start to think we are nearing some kind of inflection point. As to when, perhaps we'll need a proper macro change or black swan to turn tail, but as to when, personally, I've no idea. Cheers.


Tough one eh, still 'climbing the wall of fear', that is the way up? Very hard to judge whether we're seeing 'irrational exuberance' yet, or how we might recognise it when we do. I still don't see anything like the climate we witnessed right before the .com crash, which IME was akin to a kind of mass euphoria. Then again we had the Russia-crisis and Emerging-market crises between 1995-98 and they seemed to arrive more like black-swans IME out of the blue.
So while I remain bullish for now, and I'm still well long, having got to where I want to be in lifetime-terms, I am starting to take some precautions.
- Unwinding remaining margin via trimming positions, very nearly there now.
- I am rebalancing my portfolio to spread risk more evenly over a wider number of holdings.
- Buying a few defensives vs the more risk-on attitude I've had.
- As part of the above points, trimming back on FTSE-250 holdings where the daily market volume is low relative to my overall position. I'd rather slowly trim in a measured way than suddenly be faced with no buy-side.

- I'd also consider how to partially and progressively move from 100% long/equity, to hedging out a portion into instrument/s that might act as a hedge if trouble arrives, but bonds seem expensive, gold pays no income in what ever form [IMU], and even if I sought to create a cash holding as a buffer to tide me over until things calmed down I'm unsure what I'd do with it that might be reasonably productive. There's even little point paying off my old mortgage as it dates from the early 00's and remains on one of the lowest BBR%+tracker rates that was available back then.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108416

Postby langley59 » January 6th, 2018, 8:47 pm

Indeed nobody knows however if you look at the charts of the US indices (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) they look like they are now beginning to break up and away, so possibly we are moving into the 3rd and final stage (euphoria) of this bull market.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108418

Postby bulltraderpt » January 6th, 2018, 8:56 pm

FredBloggs wrote:When in doubt what to do, best to do nothing then eh? I too am having trouble deciding what to do for the best. Sit on a cash pile expecting a market fall and watch the prices float on upwards? Nobody knows, more than ever, nobody knows.


There is an old saying about it's best to miss the last ten percent than take the first twenty percent loss..

However where ever we are currently in this bull I think it's become reasonably obvious to everyone one that; " Now this is not the end, It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." :D

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108421

Postby bulltraderpt » January 6th, 2018, 9:02 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:
bulltraderpt wrote:One wonders when this bull market will genuinely either (a) pull back, or (b) crash.
Some commentators think it has 18 months plus left, others are not so sure. One things for sure, when I see people talking about wanting to buy crypto or start to trade shares (as I saw recently), I start to think we are nearing some kind of inflection point. As to when, perhaps we'll need a proper macro change or black swan to turn tail, but as to when, personally, I've no idea. Cheers.


Tough one eh, still 'climbing the wall of fear', that is the way up? Very hard to judge whether we're seeing 'irrational exuberance' yet, or how we might recognise it when we do. I still don't see anything like the climate we witnessed right before the .com crash, which IME was akin to a kind of mass euphoria. Then again we had the Russia-crisis and Emerging-market crises between 1995-98 and they seemed to arrive more like black-swans IME out of the blue.
So while I remain bullish for now, and I'm still well long, having got to where I want to be in lifetime-terms, I am starting to take some precautions.
- Unwinding remaining margin via trimming positions, very nearly there now.
- I am rebalancing my portfolio to spread risk more evenly over a wider number of holdings.
- Buying a few defensives vs the more risk-on attitude I've had.
- As part of the above points, trimming back on FTSE-250 holdings where the daily market volume is low relative to my overall position. I'd rather slowly trim in a measured way than suddenly be faced with no buy-side.

- I'd also consider how to partially and progressively move from 100% long/equity, to hedging out a portion into instrument/s that might act as a hedge if trouble arrives, but bonds seem expensive, gold pays no income in what ever form [IMU], and even if I sought to create a cash holding as a buffer to tide me over until things calmed down I'm unsure what I'd do with it that might be reasonably productive. There's even little point paying off my old mortgage as it dates from the early 00's and remains on one of the lowest BBR%+tracker rates that was available back then.

If, as you say you are where you want to be in life times terms and you can stomach a 50% hair cut from here, your precautions seem eminently sensible.

Fortunately as a day trader I can mitigate risk on a daily basis, but am getting concerned as it does seem a little too focused on one direction currently. I am also left wondering if and when we do get a pull back, whether the algo's will eat orders and send the market's lower than they naturally should given the happenings of the flash crash of 2010, although, granted, things are supposed to be more 'managed' now... :roll:

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108556

Postby DiamondEcho » January 7th, 2018, 4:21 pm

FredBloggs wrote:When in doubt what to do, best to do nothing then eh? I too am having trouble deciding what to do for the best. Sit on a cash pile expecting a market fall and watch the prices float on upwards? Nobody knows, more than ever, nobody knows.


Quite. There was a rather over-bearing poster on the TMF Property board by the name of Bialystock, when it was a single board covering all aspects mostly of a 'practical' nature. He showed up one day, announced he'd sold his alleged large London home and that Armageddon was coming. And he came back, day in day out for quite a few years, gloating how he'd buy back in when the inevitable crash came. And how 'the rest of you will all go up in flames [ha ha ha]'. He wrote looong posts but was eloquent and crafted what he wrote carefully, and for some, persuasively. He created quite an impact, and had a growing band of Foolish fans, some of whom parroted what Bialystock said, and what he'd claimed to have done too. Some said they'd STR'd [sold out and rented] for a while to profit from the impending bust. And then after the initial stir - which was big enough that it caused a separate Property Markets to be split off to give the landlords/etc some peace and quiet on their Practical board- the clock ticked. Months, then a year or two and no crash. Even a few years later and the market was growing strongly, and Bialystock still posting the same views was regularly being ridiculed until one day he just disappeared.
So in the absence of usefully productive diversification opportunities, yes perhaps you're right, the current steps I'm taking might be about as good as I should expect.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108560

Postby DiamondEcho » January 7th, 2018, 4:38 pm

bulltraderpt wrote:Fortunately as a day trader I can mitigate risk on a daily basis, but am getting concerned as it does seem a little too focused on one direction currently. I am also left wondering if and when we do get a pull back, whether the algo's will eat orders and send the market's lower than they naturally should given the happenings of the flash crash of 2010, although, granted, things are supposed to be more 'managed' now... :roll:


Many markets take a time-out, halt trading for a period of time, if the market drops x% intra-day. Probably useful for participants to have a chance to revisit order books and algos etc. But IMU the LSE doesn't have such a protocol.

@FredB, agreed cryptos have the same kind feel of 'easy bonanza for the masses' that was seem during the .com era; the talk, hype, media coverage and so on are eerily similar. I wouldn't touch them with a barge-pole. But has anyone considered or have views on how, if at all, a crypto bust might impact mainstream stock-markets like the LSE?

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#108571

Postby DiamondEcho » January 7th, 2018, 5:02 pm

FredBloggs wrote:To me, it is simply a matter of scale. When firms like Lehmans went bust it was all about scale and leverage. I think Cryptos could eventually have the same impact. But it may be on a much shorter timescale than we imagine.

Looking into the tale of Lehmans again to refresh my memory - Lehman was big into sub-prime mortgages, and had a very leveraged balance sheet. Perhaps it was the combo of the two that did it for them. They were also active in mainstream markets, hence wider fall-out was triggered when they collapsed. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/e ... llapse.asp
Interesting to also see that on the same day Lehmans went under, Merrill Lynch [I prev. worked there] agreed to it's buy-out by Bank of America. Though by that time - 2008, I'd already been spat out from Merrill in c2003 with Lehmans having interviewed me at the time, declining my job application :lol:

Are cryptos mainstream enough at an institutional level to cause this kind of industry sector cross-infection? I'm not sure, most banks/brokers' views I've heard with suggest they won't trade them, or get seriously involved themselves outside of perhaps very small retail order flow. Reminds me a bit like private client banking and their mass aversion to taking on rich Soviet clients in the 90s during the break-up of the USSR. 'There might be a lot of money out there looking for a home and potential profits to be made. But the downsides for us in the longer term were unquantifiable, 'Know your customer' wasn't possible then in the newly ex-USSR states, and the risks possibly materially worse than any short-term profit opportunity.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#109210

Postby bulltraderpt » January 10th, 2018, 12:26 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:
bulltraderpt wrote:Fortunately as a day trader I can mitigate risk on a daily basis, but am getting concerned as it does seem a little too focused on one direction currently. I am also left wondering if and when we do get a pull back, whether the algo's will eat orders and send the market's lower than they naturally should given the happenings of the flash crash of 2010, although, granted, things are supposed to be more 'managed' now... :roll:


Many markets take a time-out, halt trading for a period of time, if the market drops x% intra-day. Probably useful for participants to have a chance to revisit order books and algos etc. But IMU the LSE doesn't have such a protocol.

You could be right, however the algo's could be queuing up before the average retail punter gets a chance to participate, but, you never know it's not always like that but you do have to be quick and trade with imperfect information, but don't we always?

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#109910

Postby DiamondEcho » January 12th, 2018, 2:59 pm

Anyone know what triggered the mini flash-crash this pm?
Per Google Finance:
7780 at 13.25pm
7755 at 13.50
7782 at 14.50

A -25>+27 spike in 1hr25m is not 'normal', but I can't find any mention of it via Google etc etc.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#109917

Postby BrummieDave » January 12th, 2018, 3:07 pm

I was watching the US Futures and the S&P and NASDAQ, but not so much the DOW showed the same -ve spike so I suspect the FTSE was following their lead.

What caused the US indices to wobble is probably the question.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#109953

Postby DiamondEcho » January 12th, 2018, 4:45 pm

Ah ok, thanks. FWIW those indices + the small-cap Russell-2000 [RUT] all subsequently made new intra-day records this morning. Impressive for a Friday...

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#127562

Postby bulltraderpt » March 23rd, 2018, 3:10 pm

You pays yer money and takes yer choice:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpSz9tWD8xM

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#129131

Postby schober » March 31st, 2018, 8:51 am

Support for ukx at 7100 has been broken
https://tinyurl.com/y9qmcwyh
Unless it can break decisively through 7100, more falls seem likely
Perhaps a new trading range 6400 7100 with alot of sector rotation into more defensive areas?
Any views?

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#129146

Postby DiamondEcho » March 31st, 2018, 10:31 am

schober wrote:Support for ukx at 7100 has been broken https://tinyurl.com/y9qmcwyh Unless it can break decisively through 7100, more falls seem likely. Perhaps a new trading range 6400 7100 with alot of sector rotation into more defensive areas? Any views?


I think it depends on the time-frame. Your graph is veeery long term.
Short-term 7050/75* seems to be the nearby resistance zone above. We got through that [to c7110] on Thursday, but then pulled back, 'off-risking' before the four day weekend. The major US indices were all +1% or more Thursday, so as of now I'd expect the FTSE on Tuesday to power back above 7075 and then perhaps contemplate whether it has momentum to get through 7110.

* breaking above 7075 completes the formation of a bottom, per FXEmpire

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#129166

Postby DiamondEcho » March 31st, 2018, 1:01 pm

I follow the daily and weekly forecasts from FXEmpire. I find the latter particularly useful for the overall direction and potential obstacles on the way. Here is the link for the week of 2nd April forecast. https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... 000-489282 He must use voice>text to create the forecasts and you can get some confusing typos like in this case 'I think that this will come down to the top of trade wars'. But if you listen to the embedded audio/vid you'll invariably figure them out; 'top of' = 'talk of'. Sometimes it's worth listening to the vid anyway as there's often points there that aren't in the text, and his intonation/emphasis illustrates and adds to his content well.

Note he is charting the index futures and there is some divergence from the 'cash index' [ie what you see on the LSE etc website] but in the scheme of things IME it's not enough to devalue his content. He flags up major issues ahead like geo-political events, which can be a useful heads-up.

This is his Daily for Tuesday 3-Apr https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... ket-489218

I also follow the 'Levels to watch' column at IG but that's not out until mid-morning, ie after all the opening action/news is known.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#139966

Postby DiamondEcho » May 19th, 2018, 10:27 am

FXEmpire - daily: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... day-503005

Weekly - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... eek-503071
Nice bullish sub-headline - 'The FTSE 100 rallied again during the week, forming the eighth green candle in a row. This is a very bullish market, and at this point although we have gotten a bit overextended, I’m not willing to sell any pullback as I think there is more than enough buying pressure underneath the push this market to the upside.'

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#146821

Postby DiamondEcho » June 20th, 2018, 8:34 am

It seems that some sources of TA have dried up. FXEmpire hasn't produced any forecasts on the UK or other EU majors this week. ChartsToday a/o yesterday was more about what had happened, rather than any 'levels that are in play a/o now'. I wonder if with major issues like the USvChina trade war rumbling on the chartists feel their TA is too 'micro' within a largely unpredictable geo-political 'macro'.

IG are still producing dailies, but they have a helpful steer given they aren't out until 1-2hrs after the open.

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#172118

Postby DiamondEcho » October 7th, 2018, 6:06 pm

This makes for thoroughly depressing reading. Alistair Strang's latest weekly TA c/o Interactive Investor.
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentar ... -ii506893/

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#172349

Postby schober » October 8th, 2018, 8:22 pm

I've not read Strang's article (the iii site uses lots of horrible nasty javascript)
However, looking at the pnf charts suggests that it is more likely that old lows will be retested than a move to blue skies. (successive lower highs from May onwards => investors are selling rallies)

ISF.L http://tinyurl.com/y7sevoqy
MIDD.L http://tinyurl.com/ycd3gnk4

A retest of 1800 on the ft250 & 6760 on the ft100 look possible

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Re: Weather outlook for the FTSE

#172359

Postby DiamondEcho » October 8th, 2018, 8:52 pm

Agreed a re-test of recent lows appears on the cards. But IG Index had this {Friday] as the Sept lows at 7220, and today they were repeating this but suggesting 7225. Well, we closed at 7233 today. Meanwhile Alistair Strang on Friday was suggesting we'll get to 7120 in due course before things might turn around.

We shall see...


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