The Lemon Fool

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/461387/he ... t-ftse-100
'Something worrying about the FTSE 100'

A striking TA, given the continuing sideways drift, and how it notes nine levels between 7100<>7890

I would say that on a weekly chart the FTSE 100 is still in an uptrend, ie. it has a succession of higher lows and is above the rising 200 day moving average. However there is a possibility that the failed upside break at c 7550 (30th May and 30th Oct) is a trend ending characteristic. We shall see.

Yep^, we've been in the 7200/7600 consolidation range for 6 months now, and I don't see that changing whilst BREXIT also rumbles on in a 'sideways' (inconclusive) fashion.

Meanwhile, since I have them open, the daily/Monday and weekly from FXEmpire:
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-454801
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-454865

Daily for Monday, and weekly for next week:
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-456590
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-456661

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices-news/2017 ... #lb-chart1
Daily from IG. For the first time an embedded vid is also included which gives a run-through of the usual text based analysis. A nice touch, helping connect the text and static graph with the video. Perhaps they'll do this vid daily in future - would be nice.

The vid starts off covering the FTSE-100, that segment is c2 minutes long, (then it continues to others, Dax, Dow...)

Daily from III. Just noticed it, they only seem to publish on Monday and Friday.
Posting it because despite being written late last night [UK time], his analysis played out well. Wilt on the open, 7431 being a 'must bounce' level [it did so at xx33.8], then a range of targets to the upside.
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/469037/ft ... ay-outlook

FXEmpire daily: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-458414
and weekly: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-458481

A new source I think... DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundament ... DFXgeneric
Dec 16th Outlook:

' The Bank of England held on rates at 0.50% on Thursday, along with keeping its bond-buying program at its current pace. Unsurprisingly, this brought little reaction to the pound or the FTSE. The calendar for next week is light on data. The market will be watching how developments unfold with headlines regarding the second phase of ‘Brexit’ negotiations. Any big moves which may develop in GBP are likely to see the FTSE sway in the opposite direction.
The FTSE is still holding onto recent gains from the springboard bounce off of the 7300-area. There isn’t much preventing the index from testing prior record highs, but the 7550/600 area has been staunch resistance since May and will likely prove to be a challenge. Risk trends are favorable and if sterling weakens materially, like the DAX & euro, there could be a ‘double tailwind’ which gives the 100 the nudge needed to record fresh record highs. Friday’s low at 7434 is the first level of support, then followed by the 200-day just above 7400. '

Trading is likely to be subdued/low-volume in today's truncated session (8am-1.15pm). But it seems overall bullish pressure remains present. The index notched another record intra-day high this morning; Google/Finance reports it at 7611.97

FWIW In the US the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges will be open as per the usual hours.

Ugh, it lost 7600 in the closing 5 minutes, but no big surprise it 'off-risked' into the close. Still, it booked a 7616.40 Intra-day high per Google/Finance, which sets a new record.

About half-way through the session:
We've come within a whisker of a new record intra-day high at 7614.01 [LSE] versus 7614.40 hit on Friday 22nd.
Intra-day low so far is at 7586.42 [LSE], versus 7585.47 also on 22-Dec which was a record high low of the day.
We've seen a bullish theme recently of 'higher highs and higher lows'. That holds so far today for the low, and we're 0.40pts shy of maintaining that trend on the i/day high as well.
Previous record closing level was 7603.96 on 22-Dec. IG this morning noted a closed-hourly-candle above 7616 = a bullish break-out. The index is probably waiting to see how New York opens before it decides if it has the appetite to scale new heights this pm.

All-time record closing high 7620.68
All-time intra-day high 7632.71
Second time this week it's notched both those records on a single day.

re: IG's call this morning of a closed-hourly-candle above 7616 potentially triggering a bullish break-out; that candle was more than booked between c2.55-4.30pm/after-market close.

I understand the FTSE-250 also racked up a record closing high today too. I don't follow it closely enough to know if it made a new i/d high as well.

'FTSE 100 Price Forecast December 28, 2017, Technical Analysis
The FTSE 100 rallied as traders came back to work on Wednesday. It looks likely that we will continue to see buyers on dips, and now that we have broken above the 7600 level, I think we are ready to go much higher as this is a significant break out.'
[continues]

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... s-2-461544

[date typo in header corrected]

FTSE-100
New Records - intra-day high, (higher) low, and close. 7633.55/7609.77 >7622.38
FTSE-250
New Records - intra-day high, (low figure unchecked), and close. 20665.70/NA>20642.31

What a way to end the year, both the FTSE100/250 notched record i/d highs, lows and closes.
The FTSE100 took 'going out with a bang' literally, with a sudden space-rocket trajectory 50-point rise from 12:00 on the dot to the 12.30 close, for +65 on the day.

I believe that's the 24th record closing high on the FTSE100 this year! [ Beer-fridge pronto! Cheers everyone ]

langley59 wrote:I would say that on a weekly chart the FTSE 100 is still in an uptrend, ie. it has a succession of higher lows and is above the rising 200 day moving average. However there is a possibility that the failed upside break at c 7550 (30th May and 30th Oct) is a trend ending characteristic. We shall see.

Well this week has shown a decisive upside break above that 7550 level and a close for the year at an all time high as you say DiamondEcho with the sequence of higher lows intact and the price above the rising 200 day moving average.

FXEmpire daily
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-462107
Weekly
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-462180

He's certainly bullish!

Interesting state of play so far today which I'm trying to understand.
The 3 main US indices plus the Russel2000 all set new record closes and intra-day highs yesterday. Asia then followed out of the blocks overnight with Tokyo back from holidays and +3.26% on the day. France +0.8x%, Germany, Italy and Spain all +1.x%. And then you have the FTSE-100 at this moment struggling at +0.07%.
At a guess, perhaps it's because continental Europe is robust, but their markets are not within reach of record highs, whereas the FTSE is within 23 points of a new intra-day high, it was just 1pt shy on the open/8.02am, and is currently just 11 points from what would be a record close. Hmmm maybe London doesn't feel confident in being alone in Europe in setting new records today. Volume still seems pretty thin and that might not change until we pass mid-Jan when the City gets back to full-speed after the holidays.

Here are the forecasts for Monday and week of Jan-8th from FXEmpire.

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-463795
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-463860

I summed up the weekly from the video as:
'Prior week ended with a hammer (bullish). Expect volatility from BREXIT negotiations. Expecting 8,000 in a couple of months. On a pullback 7500 should be massively supportive'

One wonders when this bull market will genuinely either (a) pull back, or (b) crash.

Some commentators think it has 18 months plus left, others are not so sure. One things for sure, when I see people talking about wanting to buy crypto or start to trade shares (as I saw recently), I start to think we are nearing some kind of inflection point. As to when, perhaps we'll need a proper macro change or black swan to turn tail, but as to when, personally, I've no idea.

Cheers.