The Lemon Fool

Not sure how anyone can pick a level the index might fall to but it is a fact that we have a sequence of lower highs and a falling (200 day) moving average with the current price below it, the signs of a downtrend (both weekly and daily charts).

langley59 wrote:Not sure how anyone can pick a level the index might fall to but it is a fact that we have a sequence of lower highs and a falling (200 day) moving average with the current price below it, the signs of a downtrend (both weekly and daily charts).

Predictable human reflexes + ditto for emotion + ditto for recent history. Yep, TA is that simple

We're nearing correction territory. From today's Telegraph:

'The FTSE 100 has slipped to a fresh six-month low after tumbling a further 0.4pc.
London's benchmark index has now plunged 4pc in just four days after being hit by a perfect storm of trade war, interest rate rise and Italy worries.
The FTSE 100 is now just over 100 points away from slipping into correction territory - when stocks fall more than 10pc from their 52-week high.'

The 52-week high was 7903.50 - 10% = 7113.15
we're currently at 7216, 103 points shy....

langley59 wrote:Not sure how anyone can pick a level the index might fall to but it is a fact that we have a sequence of lower highs and a falling (200 day) moving average with the current price below it, the signs of a downtrend (both weekly and daily charts).

Well, some people think it's possible to get some idea from Point and Figure charts. Back in August this type of chart was suggesting a fall to 6900-ish may happen. The importance of this to me as a long term HYPer is not so much timing the market to get out, but the possibility that there could be even better buying points ahead.


Arb.

The easiest accessible TA I read/note is from IG. Issued daily around 9.30am.
I've followed it for years. It used to be just text and an associated TA chart, but these days there is additionally a video that covers the indices they focus on - FTSE, DAX and S+P. Today's video is 7m28secs, of which the segment on the FTSE is 3m40secs. I haven't watched these vids recently but did so this morning. It adds so much more, waaay more, detail to the text/graphic that I'll be making watching them routine from now on. Amongst that detail is a broader-term view, more levels to watch and consider, plus a lot of explaining of the basis behind why levels are significant.

I just wanted to highlight this point for anyone interested in TA on those indices, who hadn't realised what a useful additional resource the embedded vids are.

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices-news/leve ... 500-181010

Having said that^, you have to keep in mind that IGs TA refers to the 'FTSE 100 DFB' https://www.ig.com/uk/glossary-trading- ... definition DFB being Daily Funded Bet, a spread-bet. It does not refer to the actual LSE 'cash index'.

How much that matters varies, but if you follow the IG-TA you'll notice that when they refer to recent daily highs and lows they invariably diverge from those for the cash index. Today's variances might be the largest I've ever seen, which for me following the cash index renders today's forecast of no use.

They refer to:
'The FTSE 100 found support right on the 6919 lows from February, an eerie reminder of the sell-off at the start of the year. It has continued its recovery and moved back above 7000. Yesterday’s highs at 7088 '

I noted the intra-day actuals on the cash index yesterday as: High 7145 [at the open], low 6998.

Other free-to-access TA I've seen also seems to refer to derivatives on the cash index, 'FTSE-100 DXB' being a ticker I recall.

The provisional close price (possibly pre post-close auction finished) has the FTTSE at 6995.91, that's a lower-low vs Thursday's low at 6998.02, and is a negative indicator. It was looking like it would avoid another lower-low right up until 4.27pm!

Yep, so that was the actual close, and it marked the 7th session with a lower low... jeez...
It'd be a ray of light to see the 3 US major's hold-the-line and close +ve later this pm.

Any thoughts on where we are going Diamond? Given where we currently are?

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscr ... l=FT%5EUKX

bulltraderpt wrote:Any thoughts on where we are going Diamond? Given where we currently are?
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscr ... l=FT%5EUKX

Interesting chart-work there [+1], thanks for highlighting that nearby potential 'break-below' downside precipice No IDK where we are going, I'm just hunkered down for now/LTBH drawing ongoing divs. It feels somewhat nervous, but also rudderless. I'm ongoing accumulating divs received in cash (getting near 6-figures now), whereas I'd usually reinvest them pretty quickly. You'd have thought there should be a lot of bad news priced in, but I don't find it easy these days to divine what the market would perceive as good vs bad news. The £/$ and Euro seem to be pretty influential vs Cos with foreign earnings, as underlying themes. For me I'm standing back for now/keeping my powder dry.

I find the political mixed messages really hard to read, effectively impossible. What do you think BullT? I'd be interested in your views, as well as others.

We seem to be at a key technical level at the moment, approximately where the FTSE 100 made its lows in March, so a bounce from here or a breach of the support level at about 6900 should indicate which direction we proceed in. I agree however that the political situation around Brexit and the consequent strength/weakness of the pound are driving sentiment and this has the potential to override everything else. How to call that is anyone's guess.

We've effectively gone no where this year on the FTSE, as the charts shoes, (OK, slightly up if you add in the 5% dividend), but even so.

As to where we are going as has been stated very difficult to really, with conviction state. After Brexit, a rally or not?

6635 seems to be the line in the sand for a genuine bear (although a lot of congestion around there), but still not clear and a long way from it. I don't actually trade the index just keep an eye on to see what's what. Cheers

ap8889 wrote:Not a charting or TA point, but FTSE 100 yielding 4.48% surely limits the downside somewhat. It looks moderately valued on fundamentals.

Not quite, I don't know where you get 4.48%, as of last night on the FT website

FT100 DIV YLD UKX.D:FSI Price 4.33
1 Year change
10.74%
52 week range
3.73 - 4.38

as of close of play Nov 26 2018.

ISF running yield 4.17% as of last night.

Ozyu

The figure of 4.48% might be quoting the info from dividend data (which - as I type - is showing 4.48%)...I'm guessing that that's
where ap8889 is taking their figure from?

langley59 wrote:I agree however that the political situation around Brexit and the consequent strength/weakness of the pound are driving sentiment and this has the potential to override everything else. How to call that is anyone's guess.

Further to my earlier point, looking back to June 2016 when we had the shock to the markets of the Brexit vote the immediate consequences were a fall in the pound and a rise in the FTSE. It looks like T. May's Brexit plan is likely to be voted down in parliament on December 11th so might we expect a similar reaction from the markets, ie. a fall in the pound with a rise in the FTSE 100?

langley59 wrote:

langley59 wrote:I agree however that the political situation around Brexit and the consequent strength/weakness of the pound are driving sentiment and this has the potential to override everything else. How to call that is anyone's guess.

Further to my earlier point, looking back to June 2016 when we had the shock to the markets of the Brexit vote the immediate consequences were a fall in the pound and a rise in the FTSE. It looks like T. May's Brexit plan is likely to be voted down in parliament on December 11th so might we expect a similar reaction from the markets, ie. a fall in the pound with a rise in the FTSE 100?

The voting down of the 'deal' is already priced into the markets, hence there was no upward movements after the deal was signed by T May on Sunday/Monday.

ap8889 wrote:Not a charting or TA point, but FTSE 100 yielding 4.48% surely limits the downside somewhat. It looks moderately valued on fundamentals.

Well, if you bought the ftse @ 7800 and it's trading @ 7000 (as an example, even with the divi you are under water regarding you capital amount aren't you.

Although I take your point, the FTSE has gone no where when compared to other indexes over a much larger time frame. I agree with others in that we'll have to see what May comes up with or not as the case may be..

ap8889 wrote:

monabri wrote:The figure of 4.48% might be quoting the info from dividend data (which - as I type - is showing 4.48%)...I'm guessing that that's
where ap8889 is taking their figure from?

Thats my source. Love that site!

Me too..I refer to it frequently.

ap8889 wrote:

monabri wrote:The figure of 4.48% might be quoting the info from dividend data ...

Thats my source. Love that site!

There are two ways to calculate the FT100 yield, both are valid but give different results.

1. add up the yield percentages of all members and divide by the number of members. This is the average yield of a ftse member. Seems to be the one Dividend Data are quoting. The old Digital Look site used to quote this one too.

2. add up all the dividends paid out by the members and divide by the total market cap of those members. This is the yield of the index itself and the method used by the FT actuaries to give a yield for their indices. It is a cap/weighted average of the individual yields and the one you'll find on the FT site.

Perhaps there is also a 3rd way? Using the DividendData approach and including Special Dividends. The CY% is based on prior 12-months so there is no banking hopes of future Specials assumed. On that basis at time of writing the CY is 4.62%.