The Lemon Fool

FredBloggs wrote:
After the Dow closed down on Friday by 2.5% the Nikkei has done the same in sympathy, as I write (02:50am UK time) the Nikkei is also down 2.5%.

Could be an interesting day in London when the market opens. A downwards blip, or the start of a correction?

FTSE futures at 5.04am are showing an opening 82 point drop-

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

There is no point in this sort of speculation because for a start it is of no interest to the typical LTBH HYP investor and secondly it is just encouraging fear and despondency, and short termism 'par execellance'.

I was advised recently to go off and take a lie down in a darkened room concerning my recent investment in Alliance Trust. Fred needs to do the same with this sort of thing

Dod

Dod101 wrote:There is no point in this sort of speculation because for a start it is of no interest to the typical LTBH HYP investor and secondly it is just encouraging fear and despondency, and short termism 'par execellance'.

I was advised recently to go off and take a lie down in a darkened room concerning my recent investment in Alliance Trust. Fred needs to do the same with this sort of thing

Dod

That's not very fair, this is the TA board where such posts are expected. If it was the HYP Board you may have a point, but it's not.

Mel

melonfool wrote:
That's not very fair, this is the TA board where such posts are expected. If it was the HYP Board you may have a point, but it's not.

Mel

Mel, the thread was probably surreptitiously moved here by a mod after Dod made his post.

GS

FredBloggs wrote:

GoSeigen wrote:

melonfool wrote:
That's not very fair, this is the TA board where such posts are expected. If it was the HYP Board you may have a point, but it's not.

Mel

Mel, the thread was probably surreptitiously moved here by a mod after Dod made his post.

GS

Nope.

FWIW, I take Dod's comment in the same light hearted vein as the original post.

The smileys in the posts would I think indicate that none of these posts were intended to be taken too seriously. Of course Fred had a point as the FTSE100 is down over 1% as a write; not that that is any great disaster.

Dod

Itsallaguess wrote:

FredBloggs wrote:
After the Dow closed down on Friday by 2.5% the Nikkei has done the same in sympathy, as I write (02:50am UK time) the Nikkei is also down 2.5%.

Could be an interesting day in London when the market opens. A downwards blip, or the start of a correction?

FTSE futures at 5.04am are showing an opening 82 point drop-

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I just had a look at that IG site and its still showing 'live' prices for the FTSE which was a few seconds ago around -53 which is changing constantly all the other world indices are doing and so are these just 'futures' indices ie for the next trading day and just tradeable indices rather than actual make of of individual companies in the FTSE if that makes sense....

So reading the FTSE now is what they are guessing is the opening tomorrow? And you can bet on that if you want? Sorry for a daft question if it is...

beeswax wrote:
I just had a look at that IG site and its still showing 'live' prices for the FTSE which was a few seconds ago around -53 which is changing constantly all the other world indices are doing and so are these just 'futures' indices ie for the next trading day and just tradeable indices rather than actual make of of individual companies in the FTSE if that makes sense....

So reading the FTSE now is what they are guessing is the opening tomorrow? And you can bet on that if you want?

Yes, the current IG FTSE price from https://www.ig.com/uk/indices is what they are predicting for the opening price in the morning.

Given that Wall Street is currently showing the DOW being down around 870, that is likely to have a negative impact on the FTSE on open in the morning.

Currently IG is showing tomorrows FTSE down around 100, and yes you will be able to bet on that I suppose, given you can bet on almost anything nowadays, although I've never even contemplated carrying out that sort of bet....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

On IG, the FTSE 100 is now about -200, and was even lower a few minutes ago. It looks like we are in for a rout. Yes, you can bet on the FTSE 100 out of hours at IG.

Itsallaguess wrote:

beeswax wrote:
I just had a look at that IG site and its still showing 'live' prices for the FTSE which was a few seconds ago around -53 which is changing constantly all the other world indices are doing and so are these just 'futures' indices ie for the next trading day and just tradeable indices rather than actual make of of individual companies in the FTSE if that makes sense....

So reading the FTSE now is what they are guessing is the opening tomorrow? And you can bet on that if you want?

Yes, the current IG FTSE price from https://www.ig.com/uk/indices is what they are predicting for the opening price in the morning.

Given that Wall Street is currently showing the DOW being down around 870, that is likely to have a negative impact on the FTSE on open in the morning.

Currently IG is showing tomorrows FTSE down around 100, and yes you will be able to bet on that I suppose, given you can bet on almost anything nowadays, although I've never even contemplated carrying out that sort of bet....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Oh thanks mate for the clarification and I have never bet on anything like that am not going to start now...I suppose we were expecting a correction given how how well the markets have been doing. I suppose it's good news for anyone to think of buying into good companies though..

FredBloggs wrote:
Oh dear, two hours later and the Nikkei is in full retreat down >5%. It'll be bargain hunting time soon.

IG Index are pointing to the FTSE being down around 380 points on opening this morning -

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices

I've built up around 15% cash for a while now, and opportunities might start appearing that don't come along very often, during these types of wider sell-offs, so I'll be looking for good entry points for a couple of key income-related stocks if this keeps up until the end of the week.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Of course capital values matter but the trouble about buying is when? I have never been a believer in trying to time the market and it is a bit like the other thread on selling. All that I am concerned about is that I have sold sufficient in my SIPP that I do not need to worry about being a forced seller. That is the worst situation to be in. Otherwise I will just sit tight and I am glad to see that the drought of dividends now seems to be just about over. I always find that uncomfortable.

Dod

Itsallaguess wrote:

FredBloggs wrote:
I've built up around 15% cash for a while now, and opportunities might start appearing that don't come along very often, during these types of wider sell-offs, so I'll be looking for good entry points for a couple of key income-related stocks if this keeps up until the end of the week.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

=========================

i have around 25% cash now after taking some profits and reducing some dross.

hope to pick up some big solid shares in unilever , diageo at a reasonable price.

I'm in an even more extreme position. For which I claim no credit (but will cheerfully accept some chastisement. ) Last November I transferred most of my personal pension funds out into a drawdown SIPP, but I was a bit busy with work at the time and couldn't see much value that I really wanted to go for. (Although I earmarked a few funds, including a couple of Asians.) And then Christmas approached, and I still couldn't get rid of the idea that a correction was overdue, and possibly a big one. I should have bought a few trackers, but didn't.

So (deep breath, you guessed it...) The SIPP is still overwhelmingly in cash. More than 90%. Yes, I've been a very lucky idiot, but suddenly the world is my lobster. Time to dust down my autumn shortlist and see how it's doing, because I reckon this drop is going to bottom fairly quickly. There's too much cash sitting on the equity markets' sidelines for this spell to last very long. Fingers on buzzers, teams.

Do I believe in market timing? That's another question (answer yes, but hardly anybody has what it takes to do it well, so no, not really). But looking the Shiller CAPE in the eye and deciding that this wasn't a good moment to take the plunge seemed like simple common sense. Well, it did to me anyway.

The only thing I can claim in mitigation is that this particular SIPP is only a smallish portion of my personal assets, so maybe I wasn't quite as irresponsible as I might have seemed. But even so, it's up to me to make the most of this freakish opportunity now. Best of luck to all.

BJ

This time it's different. With Brexit coming, the FTSE is going down and staying down for several years. UK is basically bankrupt.

FredBloggs wrote:When? Nobody knows. What I DO know is that if I bought something a couple of months ago and now the exact same thing is maybe 20% cheaper, time is getting close to deploying some of the cash pile I've accrued by taking profits the last few weeks. Heck, even the dividend is going to be 20% higher than it was a few weeks ago too, double whammy

Sadly, Fred, the dividend is not going to be 20% higher, only the yield, not quite the same thing.

Dod

Income will be 20% higher though, which is what counts.

I locked in a small amount of capital the other day as everything else seems to be going South which is sort of fine as it was bought for longer term yield anyway. Just a small £485 but it might buy a small minnow. I wonder which the true bargains will be. Poss the giants for any safety

StepOne wrote:Income will be 20% higher though, which is what counts.

As I said yield will be higher, but the income, in terms of cash (that which you can spend) will be the same.

If the market drops 20%, the yield will increase by 25% so for a given invested amount you will get more cash in the bank; two ways of saying the same thing, but I always prefer to look at the yield not the cash income.

Dod

I'm sat on 25% cash at the moment. I've not been buying, which is my middle way between selling off and being fully invested. Looking out for bargains. Just a matter of getting the timing right(ish) which is near impossible in my experience.

I don't have a clue as to where world stock markets will end up in a year's time. All I do know is that most companies are doing pretty well at the moment. The main problems are the level of debt and some valuations which assume that the road ahead will always be free of obstructions.

The founder of JP Morgan Bank was always asked what the market would be doing tomorrow. His reply was always accurate - it will fluctuate.

Benjamin Graham's Mr Market is alive and well, and as neurotic as ever!