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Murray and/or Monks?

Closed-end funds and OEICs
Peter1B1
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Murray and/or Monks?

#147024

Postby Peter1B1 » June 20th, 2018, 10:45 pm

Firstly, it is so very good to see L'uni back. His baskets approach and careful assessment over the long term got me started in ITs.

I have held Murray International Trust for eight years as a core part of long term SIPPs, to build over forty years. International exposure and direct management were the main reasons for opening the holding but performance overall has been less than inspiring - 30% growth over the period. Murray now accounts for 6% of the pfs.

I recently looked at Monks and wonder whether this trust would be a reasonable alternative for core long term international exposure 'with attitude', a quality that I have learned to value from such as Scottish Mortgage, Polar Capital Technology and Lindsell Train IT.

I am not looking to increase the number of trusts, currently 15, so would swop holdings as readily as splitting between the two.

Lemon Fool thoughts will be greatly appreciated, please.

Peter1B1

Dod101
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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147030

Postby Dod101 » June 20th, 2018, 11:08 pm

I cannot believe that Murray International has only 30% growth over 8 years? If you include dividends?

Monks is looking good. From the same stable as Scottish Mortgage, Baillie Gifford. I think it will be fine over the next few years. Has attitude or as I might say, conviction. BG is relatively volatile as a house but that means they will do well over your timescale. Go for it!

Dod

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147111

Postby BrummieDave » June 21st, 2018, 12:08 pm

Dod101 wrote:I cannot believe that Murray International has only 30% growth over 8 years? If you include dividends?


I think it's correct Dod. I've held MYI for 3 years and its up about 14% in TR terms. I know over a 5 year period this drops to around 2%. I topped up in January and that's down a staggering 13% to date.

There has been recent discussion on this board about why MYI is suffering, but without any conclusion that I've seen.

We know it's a global fund, with a leaning towards emerging and unloved markets rather the the blue chip stocks of the more developed economies (I hold STS for that), but even so, it's a poor performance in TR terms. In the latest report I've seen released after the IT's December 2017 year end, Bruce Stout reiterates his view that the business cycle in developed markets is getting old, and that the fundamentals in emerging markets are superior. He also states that he'll be maintaining a defensive position aiming to preserve capital whilst seeking some growth. We're yet to see that in the performance.

Dod101
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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147116

Postby Dod101 » June 21st, 2018, 12:55 pm

BrummieDave wrote:I think it's correct Dod. I've held MYI for 3 years and its up about 14% in TR terms. I know over a 5 year period this drops to around 2%. I topped up in January and that's down a staggering 13% to date.


I hold it primarily for income so do not focus much on the share price. I am also influenced by the fact that I bought it in a dip in September 2015 at £8.21, good timing as it turned out. It is now around £11.30, that is up around 37% in capital terms, excluding the income which would certainly add at least a further 3%, so at least 40%, that is in less than three years. It only took off during 2016 and then at the end of last year hit its peak and has drifted gently down since then. Not a bad record though.

When did you buy? I will certainly keep it because I like Bruce Stout and I think it has decent spread of investments. On the whole, I do not like ITs that are too specialised either by geography or sector.

Incidentally I hold Scottish Mortgage and it is now my third largest holding. I am thinking of trimming it a bit because it I think it risks falling off its perch but it is doing so well..............Maybe sell some and take up the Phoenix rights.

Dod
Last edited by Dod101 on June 21st, 2018, 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

nmdhqbc
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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147117

Postby nmdhqbc » June 21st, 2018, 12:57 pm

Some rough numbers...
A quick look at the chart on HL - seems like mid 2010 price was at max 1000p. 341.5p paid in dividends over the last 8 years. Yesterdays price about 1140. So ignoring the compounding of the dividends it's gone from 1000 to about 1140+341.5=1481.5. So at least 48.15% return. Can't be bothered "buying" more with each divi but this flawed calculation gives a minimum return of more than the amount mentioned.

I did this really quick so I wouldn't be surprised if I made a mistake somewhere.

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147120

Postby BrummieDave » June 21st, 2018, 1:04 pm

Dod101 wrote:When did you buy? I will certainly keep it because I like Bruce Stout and I think it has decent spread of investments. On the whole, I do not like ITs that are too specialised either by geography or sector. Dod


I dripped in from 2015 onwards as part of my Luni B7a approach when I first started investing ready for FIRE, then put a slug in in January this year. I plan to start taking the income from April next year. I'm pretty happy with what it will provide in income terms, I was just pointing out its TR in the context of the OP.

From what I know of Mr Stout, he's an opinionated Scotsman sticking to his convictions. Strangely, despite the share price's poor performance, I'm content with that and, as I said, I hold STS to balance the blue chip/developed markets aspect for my income seeking portfolio. It's one of the few additions to the B7a list of ITs that I've mad. Others being HFEL, EAT and a few smaller investments. I've left my B7a alone, and added some broader global investments which is, I think, what Luni was hinting at he would have done too.

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147144

Postby SalvorHardin » June 21st, 2018, 4:07 pm

nmdhqbc wrote:Some rough numbers...
A quick look at the chart on HL - seems like mid 2010 price was at max 1000p. 341.5p paid in dividends over the last 8 years. Yesterdays price about 1140. So ignoring the compounding of the dividends it's gone from 1000 to about 1140+341.5=1481.5. So at least 48.15% return. Can't be bothered "buying" more with each divi but this flawed calculation gives a minimum return of more than the amount mentioned.

I did this really quick so I wouldn't be surprised if I made a mistake somewhere.

Your figures are fine. It's a case of the summarised data once again not being all that accurate. Being roughly right is much better than being precisely wrong :D

As I type this the share price is 1,124p. 8 years ago (from Yahoo finance) the closing price on 21st June 2010 was 848p.

Capital growth = (1,124 / 848)^(1/8) = 3.6% per annum (or 32.5% total, which is roughly 30% excluding dividends)

Total return including dividends (with zero investment return on the dividends) = ((1,124 + 341.5) / 848)^(1/8) = 7.1% per annum (or 72.8% total)

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147149

Postby nmdhqbc » June 21st, 2018, 4:35 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:As I type this the share price is 1,124p. 8 years ago (from Yahoo finance) the closing price on 21st June 2010 was 848p.

Capital growth = (1,124 / 848)^(1/8) = 3.6% per annum (or 32.5% total, which is roughly 30% excluding dividends)

Total return including dividends (with zero investment return on the dividends) = ((1,124 + 341.5) / 848)^(1/8) = 7.1% per annum (or 72.8% total)


Yeah, so looks highly likely that 30% quoted does not include dividends which as we can see are very important. I just went for the more than worst case scenario 2010 price to make sure I didn't over estimate the returns.

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147160

Postby bluedonkey » June 21st, 2018, 5:11 pm

Recent under-performance of MYI may partly be due to it slipping recently into discount territory. The AIC website is currently showing a discount of 0.5% for MYI, whereas it's been at a premium for the past couple of years. Now has a yield of 4.7%, quite tempting. Relatively highly geared at 11%, though. If the discount continues to widen, it could get to a yield of 5%.

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147165

Postby Dod101 » June 21st, 2018, 5:41 pm

bluedonkey wrote:Recent under-performance of MYI may partly be due to it slipping recently into discount territory. The AIC website is currently showing a discount of 0.5% for MYI, whereas it's been at a premium for the past couple of years. Now has a yield of 4.7%, quite tempting. Relatively highly geared at 11%, though. If the discount continues to widen, it could get to a yield of 5%.


Well I think the discount is more a symptom than a cause of the under performance. The discount merely shows that fewer investors are buying its shares. The question is why is that? The portfolio as the Chairman says is income focussed and as an example it has large holdings in BAT and Philip Morris. Maybe with these and other income shares plus sterling strengthening, that could go someway to explain matters. OTOH the NAV for 2017 was 14.7% which is fine by me. The gearing at year end was down from the previous year and they refinanced a £60 million loan which will save on interest costs. In all I doubt that there is anything to worry about but Monks and Murray International are very different trusts, so it is like comparing apples with oranges.

Dod

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147199

Postby Peter1B1 » June 21st, 2018, 9:21 pm

To clarify, the 30% capital growth figure in my OP was without dividends. I accept that that reduces the total return and thanks for the re-workings.

Capital growth is the basis on which I judge each holding. Income should not be a requirement from the SIPPs for at least 30 years so dividends, as they accrue, are simply reinvested along with annual new money to maintain compounding.

On the same assessment basis: Lindsell Train IT +300%; Scottish Mortgage +120%; Polar Capital Technology +95%; and (for balance) Black Rock World Mining -50%! Investment periods vary a bit but this simple evaluation helps me separate stars from weak performers after holding for, say, five years or more.

I appreciate the comments and recognise Murray Investment Trust for its yield. I'll dig deeper into Monks as a contender for a capital growth slot in the SIPPs.

Peter1B1

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147241

Postby BrummieDave » June 22nd, 2018, 8:45 am

As has been stated earlier in the replies, the two trusts are very different beasts. One has the outright objective to achieve capital growth which it does with virtually no dividend, and the other looks to deliver an above average dividend whilst also seeking a total return better than its benchmark.

So to subsequently compare their performance only in share price terms, stripping out dividend reinvestment, isn't really a measure of overall performance. Total return would do this of course, but that's not what you seem to have done.

The same explanation can be given to the figures you quote for Lindsell Train, Scottish Mortgage etc. but I'm sure you know that.

Good luck with your SIPP, 30 years is a long time to build a decent pot, especially with dividend reinvestment and the benefits of compounding.

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147268

Postby Peter1B1 » June 22nd, 2018, 10:26 am

I think that sums it up Brummie, thank you.

I won't be around to see the fruits of the harvest but hopefully the girls will - and will build their own skills so they can remain independent and in control of what should become useful and versatile, heritable pots.

A consequence of investing for income is that you eat your cake today instead of tomorrow. With the SIPPs in build, that is the wrong way round. I like the look of Monks and will research it further. Thanks again to Lemon Fool and all contributors.

Peter1B1

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Re: Murray and/or Monks?

#147284

Postby Dod101 » June 22nd, 2018, 11:07 am

Peter1B1 wrote:A consequence of investing for income is that you eat your cake today instead of tomorrow. With the SIPPs in build, that is the wrong way round. I like the look of Monks and will research it further. Thanks again to Lemon Fool and all contributors


I am not sure if I would altogether agree with your investing for income quote. Certainly I am now eating my cake as you put it but if you reinvest the dividends you are investing the cake instead and if we get a real market downturn it is always comforting to at least have the dividends.

Re Monks, I see it as a slightly less aggressive version of Scottish Mortgage and since the new managers in BG took it on it has been doing well. Like any share it will not always do so and you could argue that it is a bit late to the Amazon etc party. I hold Scottish Mortgage and have done very well from it but it was not always so in the 15 years or so that I have held it.

Dod


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