Lootman wrote:genou wrote:Lootman wrote:So not exactly trading. But not buy, hold and forget either.
Go back and read what you wrote. You've just invented trying to time the market. There is quite a lot of research on that, and not a lot of it supports your view.
I know what I wrote. When you hold a position you should normally have an exit strategy, i.e the terms under which you will close out the position. That is hardly controversial. I'm just saying that I'd apply it to these so-called wealth preservers as well, at least unless you are content with lower, less volatile returns forever.
Of course, those vehicles themselves are trying to time the market, and I am aware that is hard for them, you and me. But I have no regrets about selling PNL when I did. The outcome was superior to staying in it over the last decade, although had markets gone all the way down to zero then I might have regretted it.
I did establish a smaller positon in PNL some years later, as again the markets were becoming sprightly.
I appreciate they have a place, just when I see someone holding a number of these type of funds I find it a bit of a head scratcher. Theoretically they are defensive but once you have multiple of these surely it becomes problematic understanding exactly what you are holding because as you say they are all effectively trying to time the market and are moving in and out of assets classes?
Perhaps I'm overthinking think it, Currently I just try to keep my Gold/Property/Bonds/Infrastructire/Trophy assets as separate pits to equities and cash. Personally I find it easier to think like this top down.
if I was to invest I think I'd just pick one of these type of holdings as I'd view it as subcontracting the asset allocation to the fund manager.