The Lemon Fool

Aminatidi wrote:Interesting week with things seeming to yo-yo around between Brexit and £:$ and Trump and just about everything else.

Yesterday seems to have been a bit of a rough day worldwide.

My "defensive" funds have performed as follows:

CGT +0.23%
SIGT -0.14%
RICA -0.23%
PNL -0.59%

For comparison

VWRL was down -2.72%

Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF (VAGP) was up +0.35%

According to HL I was down £-243.48 whilst if I was 100% in VWRL I'd be £-3400 down.

So that doesn't seem awful to me.

Of course, I'll make less on the upside, but you have to be able to sleep

If you held a Bitcoin ETF, you'd be up 7%.

PHAU - a gold etf up nearly 2%. And IBTL 20 year US Treasuries up about 1%.

Off to put everything in Bitcoin... or may just stop at the Casino and put it all on red

Gold's an interesting one.

PNL and RICA are around 8% in physical gold and I was just reading this

https://moneyweek.com/512183/gold-the-a ... will-rise/

Hell of a rise over the last 3-6 months but as with most things maybe once you notice it is when you've missed the boat.

So as a slight update I've had a small tweak this week between new money and re-arrange some existing money.

Seneca Income & Growth is gone and has been replaced with The Scottish American Investment Company.

New money has purchased Mid Wynd Investment Trust.

I still arguably have way too much cash with £110K including NS&I savings certs but as of today I'm 55% invested (with "cash" shown below just being the cash in my HL account).

I'm contemplating adding some Scottish Mortgage Trust which until recently I'd shied away from because it is volatile but it seems like it may be good value at the moment.

Stock name % Weight Sector
1 CAPITAL GEARING TRUST 33.5% [N/A]
2 PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST 12.9% [N/A]
3 Fundsmith Equity Class I 12.6% Global
4 RUFFER INVESTMENT CO 12.5% [N/A]
5 Lindsell Train Global Equity Class D 12.2% Global
6 SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO 6.0% [N/A]
7 MID WYND INTL INVESTMENT TRUST 5.9% [N/A]
8 Valu-Trac VT RM Alternative Income Institutional 3.5% Specialist
9 Cash 0.9% [N/A]

Aminatidi wrote:Stock name % Weight Sector
1 CAPITAL GEARING TRUST 33.5% [N/A]
2 PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST 12.9% [N/A]
3 Fundsmith Equity Class I 12.6% Global
4 RUFFER INVESTMENT CO 12.5% [N/A]
5 Lindsell Train Global Equity Class D 12.2% Global
6 SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO 6.0% [N/A]
7 MID WYND INTL INVESTMENT TRUST 5.9% [N/A]
8 Valu-Trac VT RM Alternative Income Institutional 3.5% Specialist
9 Cash 0.9% [N/A]

With almost 50% in PNL & CGT plus lots of cash, you must be sleeping soundly at night

StOmer wrote:

Aminatidi wrote:Stock name % Weight Sector
1 CAPITAL GEARING TRUST 33.5% [N/A]
2 PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST 12.9% [N/A]
3 Fundsmith Equity Class I 12.6% Global
4 RUFFER INVESTMENT CO 12.5% [N/A]
5 Lindsell Train Global Equity Class D 12.2% Global
6 SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO 6.0% [N/A]
7 MID WYND INTL INVESTMENT TRUST 5.9% [N/A]
8 Valu-Trac VT RM Alternative Income Institutional 3.5% Specialist
9 Cash 0.9% [N/A]

With almost 50% in PNL & CGT plus lots of cash, you must be sleeping soundly at night

As I've said throughout this thread it's the very definition of a first world problem.

I'm lucky but I want to be sensible as this is essentially life savings albeit with the safety net of future salary.

However I started late and I don't intend working forever so balancing risk & reward seems key.

Aminatidi wrote:So as a slight update I've had a small tweak this week between new money and re-arrange some existing money.

Seneca Income & Growth is gone and has been replaced with The Scottish American Investment Company.

New money has purchased Mid Wynd Investment Trust.

I still arguably have way too much cash with £110K including NS&I savings certs but as of today I'm 55% invested (with "cash" shown below just being the cash in my HL account).

I'm contemplating adding some Scottish Mortgage Trust which until recently I'd shied away from because it is volatile but it seems like it may be good value at the moment.

Stock name % Weight Sector
1 CAPITAL GEARING TRUST 33.5% [N/A]
2 PERSONAL ASSETS TRUST 12.9% [N/A]
3 Fundsmith Equity Class I 12.6% Global
4 RUFFER INVESTMENT CO 12.5% [N/A]
5 Lindsell Train Global Equity Class D 12.2% Global
6 SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT CO 6.0% [N/A]
7 MID WYND INTL INVESTMENT TRUST 5.9% [N/A]
8 Valu-Trac VT RM Alternative Income Institutional 3.5% Specialist
9 Cash 0.9% [N/A]

Aminatidi, there's not much focus on income in those, apart from Scottish American, just growth and wealth preservation. I like to have income coming in, something I can see (and touch) and reinvest along the way. Mr Market can quickly take growth away, whereas dividends once paid can't be taken away.

As I aim mostly at income, I have recently added Mid Wynd to up my growth exposure.

I'm in my early 40's and in full time employment so arguably I'm not sure income shouldn't be a priority.

Hell half the posts on here are telling me I'm way too cautious for my age but that comes down to the sleep at night comment above.

Aminatidi wrote:
Hell half the posts on here are telling me I'm way too cautious for my age but that comes down to the sleep at night comment above.

You're way too cautious for you age!

Aminatidi wrote:
I'm in my early 40's and in full time employment so arguably I'm not sure income shouldn't be a priority.

Hell half the posts on here are telling me I'm way too cautious for my age but that comes down to the sleep at night comment above.

I'd probably agree that you're perhaps being a little too cautious for your age, but with one huge caveat...

Given your current cautious stance, I wouldn't actually plan on changing that stance *too drastically* at this moment in time.

There's a lot of balls in the air right now, and I personally don't think it would be the right time for you to be reluctantly convinced *by others* to change your current position if you're not 100% convinced *yourself* that doing so would be the right thing to do.

With the above said, however, I think there is some merit to the 'drip feed at all times' approach, and so setting up a regular, but relatively small-scale contribution into something like the Vanguard Lifestrategy 80% might be something to consider, just to break what might be your current 'market paralysis', and get you mentally prepared for a larger scale approach at some point in the future.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

BrummieDave wrote:

Aminatidi wrote:
Hell half the posts on here are telling me I'm way too cautious for my age but that comes down to the sleep at night comment above.

You're way too cautious for you age!

Do one

richfool wrote:Aminatidi, there's not much focus on income in those, apart from Scottish American, just growth and wealth preservation. I like to have income coming in, something I can see (and touch) and reinvest along the way. Mr Market can quickly take growth away, whereas dividends once paid can't be taken away.

As I aim mostly at income, I have recently added Mid Wynd to up my growth exposure.

I am fairly sure that Train, Ruffer, Smith, Spiller and Lyon (the managers of his biggest holdings) are all on record as saying that they do not target any set level of income, as their focus is total return and management of risk. I would assume that anyone who invests in those vehicles understands and accepts that situation.

In the case of Personal Assets, they used to have a feature in their saving scheme whereby you could sell off shares on a regular basis for those who wanted "income". The idea was that holders of that IT were likely wealthy and in a high tax bracket, and gains would be more lightly taxed than income. PAT wanted to cater to those who wanted a simple way of deriving "income" without having to compromise the holdings by reaching for yield.

There is more than one way to produce the cashflows one needs when living off investment income.

Itsallaguess wrote:

Aminatidi wrote:
I'm in my early 40's and in full time employment so arguably I'm not sure income shouldn't be a priority.

Hell half the posts on here are telling me I'm way too cautious for my age but that comes down to the sleep at night comment above.

I'd probably agree that you're perhaps being a little too cautious for your age, but with one huge caveat...

Given your current cautious stance, I wouldn't actually plan on changing that stance *too drastically* at this moment in time.

There's a lot of balls in the air right now, and I personally don't think it would be the right time for you to be reluctantly convinced *by others* to change your current position if you're not 100% convinced *yourself* that doing so would be the right thing to do.

With the above said, however, I think there is some merit to the 'drip feed at all times' approach, and so setting up a regular, but relatively small-scale contribution into something like the Vanguard Lifestrategy 80% might be something to consider, just to break what might be your current 'market paralysis', and get you mentally prepared for a larger scale approach at some point in the future.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I do agree with the fact I'm not going to change my position because others told me to.

But I also had managed to overlook that as you feed more money into your investments you're adding new stuff and diluting down what you already have.

It's interesting how adding what seems like quite a lot of equity exposure in terms of money going in actually only makes a swing of 7% or so.

I've said before that I probably give the impression of some neurotic investor having sleepless nights trading in and out of things with each report of good or bad news.

Honestly nothing could be further from the truth, I trade little, change little, and so far I've been fortunate enough to learn a few cheap lessons early i.e. buying Blue Prism and Burford because others are is a good way to get a cheap lesson in your own psychology

Lootman wrote:

richfool wrote:Aminatidi, there's not much focus on income in those, apart from Scottish American, just growth and wealth preservation. I like to have income coming in, something I can see (and touch) and reinvest along the way. Mr Market can quickly take growth away, whereas dividends once paid can't be taken away.

As I aim mostly at income, I have recently added Mid Wynd to up my growth exposure.

I am fairly sure that Train, Ruffer, Smith, Spiller and Lyon (the managers of his biggest holdings) are all on record as saying that they do not target any set level of income, as their focus is total return and management of risk. I would assume that anyone who invests in those vehicles understands and accepts that situation.

In the case of Personal Assets, they used to have a feature in their saving scheme whereby you could sell off shares on a regular basis for those who wanted "income". The idea was that holders of that IT were likely wealthy and in a high tax bracket, and gains would be more lightly taxed than income. PAT wanted to cater to those who wanted a simple way of deriving "income" without having to compromise the holdings by reaching for yield.

There is more than one way to produce the cashflows one needs when living off investment income.

I suspect I may be a bit of an exception to many on this site in that I'm not investing directly for income to live off.

It's nice to see a bit drip in but when struggling to deploy cash, seeing more of it appear isn't always ideal

The fund managers above have a mandate/style and I'm very aware of what it is as I try and do my homework and as you say I understand and accept that mandate (perhaps with a little bit more caution where Ruffer are concerned).

Aminatidi wrote:

Lootman wrote:

richfool wrote:Aminatidi, there's not much focus on income in those, apart from Scottish American, just growth and wealth preservation. I like to have income coming in, something I can see (and touch) and reinvest along the way. Mr Market can quickly take growth away, whereas dividends once paid can't be taken away.

As I aim mostly at income, I have recently added Mid Wynd to up my growth exposure.

I am fairly sure that Train, Ruffer, Smith, Spiller and Lyon (the managers of his biggest holdings) are all on record as saying that they do not target any set level of income, as their focus is total return and management of risk. I would assume that anyone who invests in those vehicles understands and accepts that situation.

In the case of Personal Assets, they used to have a feature in their saving scheme whereby you could sell off shares on a regular basis for those who wanted "income". The idea was that holders of that IT were likely wealthy and in a high tax bracket, and gains would be more lightly taxed than income. PAT wanted to cater to those who wanted a simple way of deriving "income" without having to compromise the holdings by reaching for yield.

There is more than one way to produce the cashflows one needs when living off investment income.

I suspect I may be a bit of an exception to many on this site in that I'm not investing directly for income to live off.

It's nice to see a bit drip in but when struggling to deploy cash, seeing more of it appear isn't always ideal

The fund managers above have a mandate/style and I'm very aware of what it is as I try and do my homework and as you say I understand and accept that mandate (perhaps with a little bit more caution where Ruffer are concerned).

Lootman, I wasn't suggesting that Arminatidi's wealth preservers (PNL, CGT & RICA) should be producing more income. I was just pointing out that his selection of trusts seemed to be mainly wealth preservers and growth trusts (though not exclusively so). From the perspective of diversification, if not for income itself, I would have liked to see the odd additional growth & income orientated trust. Noting also that income focused trusts tend to hold up better in downturns and the income gives another source of funds to reinvest. But that's just my perspective.

I tend to invest for income & growth, i.e. with more emphasis on income, though I don't need or live off the income. I just plough it back in (re-invest it). Though I do hold the odd growth focused trust for further diversification.

Disc: My holdings do include PNL.

I did consider it which is (kind of) one reason for holding SCAM (great ticker ).

Finsbury Growth Trust is a little too much overlap with Lindsell Train Global Equity.

Troy Income & Growth is something else I considered.

Other than those two nothing seemed to leap out.

If I looked for additional diversification I think I'm more likely to look at alternatives than equities but it's one of the things I like about CGT, the portfolio is actually stuffed with things that aren't just stocks.

Situation as of today and still cash to either sit on and wait, or deploy.



Interesting article someone posted on recession proofing, again coming at this from the angle of not needing income but it seems fairly unanimous that there are storm clouds on the horizon, just nobody seems to know how far off the horizon is

https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/08/20/ ... vestments/

Interesting discussion about a likely recession this afternoon on CNBC, the charts used went back to the 1700's showing we've been fairly calm comparatively since around 1850. Current conditions suggest a recession within 12 months or less but twice in recent years the same signals were wrong. Most of the panel had gone light on stocks and long-dated gilts but sticking with some Tech and US Consumers. Reading your link reminded me how badly my portfolio suffered back in 2008, losses were recovered in 2-3 years but at the time it was scary.

Aminatidi wrote:Interesting article someone posted on recession proofing, again coming at this from the angle of not needing income but it seems fairly unanimous that there are storm clouds on the horizon, just nobody seems to know how far off the horizon is

https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/08/20/ ... vestments/

Aminatidi, Interesting, but I couldn't work out what the BIL stands for in the linked article (in the Permanent Portfolio).

richfool wrote:

Aminatidi wrote:Interesting article someone posted on recession proofing, again coming at this from the angle of not needing income but it seems fairly unanimous that there are storm clouds on the horizon, just nobody seems to know how far off the horizon is

https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/08/20/ ... vestments/

Aminatidi, Interesting, but I couldn't work out what the BIL stands for in the linked article (in the Permanent Portfolio).

I think it's Treasury Bills.