The Lemon Fool

StOmer wrote:Interesting discussion about a likely recession this afternoon on CNBC, the charts used went back to the 1700's showing we've been fairly calm comparatively since around 1850. Current conditions suggest a recession within 12 months or less but twice in recent years the same signals were wrong. Most of the panel had gone light on stocks and long-dated gilts but sticking with some Tech and US Consumers. Reading your link reminded me how badly my portfolio suffered back in 2008, losses were recovered in 2-3 years but at the time it was scary.

It's sobering reading and I think it helps my "justify" some of the comments that I'm too cautious.

Appreciate it's a balancing act but I'd prefer not to see 40% wiped off and make a bit less I think.

Can someone explain to me the attraction of IT's such as Murray International?

I see it mentioned a fair bit yet looking at its recent performance it appears a bit of a mutt?

1) decent yield
2) fair diversification geographically
3) past performance hasn't been that bad at all. (total return, obviously, you have to include divis)

its lagged since about jan 2018 but that's only 18 months, you can't tell if its gone wrong over that time, except to say that its another example of buying a tracker would outperform expensive managers!

(MYI) has a cautious Manager, and lower exposure to US markets.

I would like to add another factor into the Personal Assets v Capital Gearing v RICA question. How about cash?

After a bit of selling off of property OEIC's my cash balance is now 19% of the total. My dilemma now is whether to buy into Capital Gearing which I really like the look of or just leave the cash alone? I am not keen on UK property (but would consider global property) but other than that, I feel that I have a reasonably diversified pf but would like to be a defensive so, is cash king? Any comment appreciated.

EssDeeAitch wrote:I would like to add another factor into the Personal Assets v Capital Gearing v RICA question. How about cash?

After a bit of selling off of property OEIC's my cash balance is now 19% of the total. My dilemma now is whether to buy into Capital Gearing which I really like the look of or just leave the cash alone? I am not keen on UK property (but would consider global property) but other than that, I feel that I have a reasonably diversified pf but would like to be a defensive so, is cash king? Any comment appreciated.

SDH,

I agree it's useful to hold some cash, partly from the point of view that it provides a buffer/alternative asset class, which, with interest rates reaching negative levels and low inflation, is arguably less costly to hold. Cash also provides "dry powder" to deploy in the event of sudden market falls.

Note that the likes of PNL & CGT do also hold cash or cash equivalents. I believe c 21% in the case of PNL and 4% with CGT.

Aminatidi wrote:

richfool wrote:

Aminatidi wrote:Interesting article someone posted on recession proofing, again coming at this from the angle of not needing income but it seems fairly unanimous that there are storm clouds on the horizon, just nobody seems to know how far off the horizon is

https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/08/20/ ... vestments/

Aminatidi, Interesting, but I couldn't work out what the BIL stands for in the linked article (in the Permanent Portfolio).

I think it's Treasury Bills.

Yes, it's actually an ETF that mirrors an index of T-Bills:

https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-bloomb ... ll-etf-BIL

I'd assumed the "cash" held in the likes of PNL, CGT, and RICA, were to take advantage of markets should the situation present itself?

i.e. if the apocalypse happens and I hold "cash" I can go on a buying spree, or if I hold PNL/CGT/RICA they may choose to go on a buying spree?

I'm sure at one point in its past PNL was something like 80% stocks and the quarterlies often suggest they would load up if the situation arose.

Aminatidi wrote:I'd assumed the "cash" held in the likes of PNL, CGT, and RICA, were to take advantage of markets should the situation present itself?

i.e. if the apocalypse happens and I hold "cash" I can go on a buying spree, or if I hold PNL/CGT/RICA they may choose to go on a buying spree?

I'm sure at one point in its past PNL was something like 80% stocks and the quarterlies often suggest they would load up if the situation arose.

Yes and yes. I don't know about your final point, but it sounds logical.

I think my only point there was that people often seem to think of PNL as cautious when the quarterlies go to great lengths to point out that apparently they want to be heavy in equities in the right circumstances.

Aminatidi wrote:I'd assumed the "cash" held in the likes of PNL, CGT, and RICA, were to take advantage of markets should the situation present itself?

i.e. if the apocalypse happens and I hold "cash" I can go on a buying spree, or if I hold PNL/CGT/RICA they may choose to go on a buying spree?

I'm sure at one point in its past PNL was something like 80% stocks and the quarterlies often suggest they would load up if the situation arose.

I have created a spreadsheet of the underlying holdings geographic spread of investments and the cash element within the individual investments is 3.3% which is not a huge amount to play with. I have no idea if this is a typical value.

EssDeeAitch wrote:I have created a spreadsheet of the underlying holdings geographic spread of investments and the cash element within the individual investments is 3.3% which is not a huge amount to play with. I have no idea if this is a typical value.

If you need updates for this then the Monthly Information Release page with the MIR + MIR GEO spreadsheets at the AIC site are very useful - https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/statistics/mir

StOmer wrote:

EssDeeAitch wrote:I have created a spreadsheet of the underlying holdings geographic spread of investments and the cash element within the individual investments is 3.3% which is not a huge amount to play with. I have no idea if this is a typical value.

If you need updates for this then the Monthly Information Release page with the MIR + MIR GEO spreadsheets at the AIC site are very useful - https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/statistics/mir

Wow! Thanks for the note, I didn't know this information was available. This will make it much easier to update even though I have to go the manual route for my OEIC's

RICA seem to have recovered from their recent dip, with the share price and the discount roughly where they were a year ago. Perhaps they have sorted out whatever it was that caused their problems and will be more stable from now on. Let's hope so, as I hold their shares.

Parky wrote:RICA seem to have recovered from their recent dip, with the share price and the discount roughly where they were a year ago. Perhaps they have sorted out whatever it was that caused their problems and will be more stable from now on. Let's hope so, as I hold their shares.

They've been in a few financial publications with a dissection of what went wrong.

Fingers crossed. They cost me a small amount of money last year when I put a toe in the water with them but since going back in a couple of months ago with a much larger sum it's done very well for a "defensive" option, though to be fair as you say a lot of that has been the discount reducing.

FYI

Appears Troy has begun adding Google to their Trojan*/PNL portfolios:

https://patplc.co.uk/portfolio


*Assuming this'll get a mention in their forthcoming Aug Factsheet

Personal Assets are getting very adventurous are they not? Now over 30% in equities. I rather like their choices as well.

Dod

I think the equity weighting has been in the same "rough ballpark" for quite some time. Anyone familiar with the portfolio manager will also be familiar with their rationale, so no further comment required there (you take it or leave it).

I believe Medtronic was the last addition (May '19).

The equity component of the Trojan/PNL portfolios is generally similar in characteristics to the 'quality factor' moated stuff that Terry Smith screens for, albeit a touch more idiosyncratic (ie. the Canadian stuff as diversifiers) due to the differing portfolio objective and thus slightly less accounting metrics-driven in the selection.

Looks as if I am a bit out of touch because they have been as high as 40% plus in the last few years. Nevertheless I like their choices. Thanks tikunetih.

Dod

No problem.

From what I recall, also added over the past ~year-ish or so were Société Bic and before that AMEX.

Don't hold me to that though, as I don't follow this closely! It's just what I vaguely recall from reading Troy fact sheets from time to time...

As well as adding PNL to my portfolio earlier this year, I have recently added (TIGT )Troy Income & Growth Trust because it's taking a more cautious stance within the UK equity income arena and which includes a preference for higher quality stocks. Though noted it has a slightly lower yield at c 3.3% than its peers.