Basket of Seven: 2019 review
Posted: May 31st, 2019, 12:23 pm
The Basket of Seven (B7) was devised in 2010 for the ignorant and apathetic investor who needs to pay bills as they fall due. The portfolio tries for a flow of income, from equity-based investment trusts, whose purchasing power should grow sedately over time. It should as far as feasible be 'fire and forget'.
Results of the seven chosen ITs are aggregated to a common Mar. year end, since this best fits their various accounting dates. Trends since the B7's backtested launch on Nov. 10, 2000 (also when 'HYP 1' began) are reviewed.
The B7 houses an increasingly eclectic mix of big and small, British and overseas stocks in all lines of business. They are to be bought in equal amounts: Bankers (BNKR), BMO Capital and Income (BCI-- formerly FCI), JPMorgan Claverhouse (JCH), Lowland Investment (LWI), Mercantile (MRC), Murray International (MYI) and Perpetual Income & Growth (PLI). Latest results are for financial years ended between Aug. 2018 and Mar. 2019.
INCOME
The B7 lifted regular dividends per share by 9.1% (2017: +9.4%), or by 6.2% (5.5%) after retail price inflation (RPI). This was above the average real rise of 4.4% pa during 18 complete years (1).
The portfolio's yield at Mar. 31, based on historic or officially forecast payouts, was 3.6% (2018: 3.1%). Such is a little cheaper than the average of 3.4% throughout its life, but it remained a half-point below the FT All-Share Index yield; these trusts have become more wanted for income.
Cover for payouts in 2017-18 again averaged 1.08 times, above the B7's whole-life average of 1.04 times. The basket has not distributed uncovered income since the wake of the global financial crisis in 2011-12. Average revenue reserve has been steady at 12-13 months of current payout since the crisis, albeit below the 15-17 months of earlier years.
On the whole these trusts' divi rates-- though presently rising at ~9% pa-- look prepared for a slowdown in earnings. Reversing the trend of recent years, the basket's Ongoing Charges Ratio rose to 0.61% (0.56%) of year-end net asset value (NAV), which has declined. But that is against a 2000-18 average of 0.81%.
Dividends per share since the putative launch have tripled, more than doubling in real terms. Income's purchasing power increased every year. Trusts imposed real cuts, year on year, on 15 of a possible 70 occasions in the past decade, averaging 2.0% nominal.
CAPITAL
Market values have responded over time to the income stream's steadiness. But they are far from proof against general fluctuations: both NAVs and share prices took hits last year as value stocks lost popularity relative to speculative and momentum punts.
For 2018-19 the composite NAV shrank by 7.2% (2017-18: +14.6%) nominal, or by 10.0% (+10.7%) real. Share prices were 6.3% (+14.7%) to the bad in money terms or 9.2% lower (previously up 10.8%) after inflation. However real changes between year ends since the putative launch have averaged +4.6% for assets per share, 4.7% for the share price.
The B7 outperformed the All-Share Index by an average 3.8% pa on share price, and in 12 of 17 years. The latest lag of 1.3% followed outperformance of 7.9% in 2017-18... and is the third lag in five years.
Three of seven members beat the Index in latest accounting years, after five the year before; albeit BCI has missed the benchmark only by a whisker. The average is for four of seven to outdo the broad equity market.
The average discount of 6.1% at financial year ends is close to the lifetime 6.5%, shrinking by 0.9 of a point since 2017-18. The tightest 2.2% discount was in 2013-14, before jitters about the sustainability of income from 'bond proxy' blue chips set in.
CONSTITUENTS
Briefly, individual trusts' contributions over the last ten years:
First, four income metrics: compound annual real dividend growth after inflation (2), number of real cuts year on year, average cover and months in revenue reserve:
BNKR: 3.2%, 1, 1.04x, 21
BCI: 0.5%, 4, 1.09x, 14
JCH: 2.4%, 2, 1.04x, 19
LWI: 4.8%, 2, 1.02x, 13
MRC: 2.9%, 4, 1.01x, 18
MYI: 5.5%, 1, 1.04x, 13
PLI: 2.9%, 1, 1.10x, 11
--------------------------------
B7: 3.5%, 0, 1.04x, 16
Capital metrics: share price change in decade to latest financial year end, number of years trailing the index, average yield and discount/premium:
BNKR: +173.8%, 3, 2.7%, 7.6%
BCI: +66.4%, 7, 3.8%, -2.0%
JCH: +95.6%, 4, 3.8%, 6.9%
LWI: +142.4%, 4, 3.4%, 4.6%
MRC: +224.1%, 4, 3.1%, 13.4%
MYI: +92.2%, 3, 4.1%, -2.9%
PLI: +90.1%, 3, 3.7%, 5.6%
-----------------------------------------
B7: +138.3%, 3, 3.4%, 6.1%
BCI is still the back-marker for dividend and capital growth, yet usually sells on a premium. Perhaps new owners Bank of Montreal can fix it. Mercantile, with its midcaps focus, has been #1 for capital growth but far the most volatile. Bankers and Lowland are low-yielding but 'growthy' for income; so is Murray International with its foreign flavour. But MYI, and the more orthodox Perpetual more so, grew more erratic and unloved in the past few years-- whereas JPMorgan Claverhouse rallied.
Such twists and turns concern me little. The B7 is an eternity-buy-and-hold job illustrating a method, not setting one permutation in stone. When picked, there was less choice of ITs with track records; today I might chuck a foreign specialist in the mix, whereas BCI was a poor, misidentified pick. Well, most portfolios contain at least one gaffe; it makes this backward-jobbed effort more realistic. No member has blown up. Overall, I am content.
PERFORMANCE 2000-19
Let us see how the B7 would have performed in practice. An investor places the same £75,000 lump sum as Pyad's HYP1, with the same equal weighting and 1% acquisition costs and on the same date: Nov. 10, 2000.
The basket would have collared £6,575 of income last year (1), an 8.5% increase. (HYP1 got £8,882 in the year to Nov. 2018.) The B7's yield on last Apr. 1's opening capital was 3.5%, in line with the historic average. This is competitive with cash or fixed interest, if the collection is viewed as a savings account with some inflation protection for interest and principal. Receipts are free of income tax to the basic-rate payer, or to all within an ISA or using the £2,000 dividend allowance. After 18.5 years the basket's £75,000 investment would have dispensed £73,262 of regular dividends, plus £794 of one-offs.
Market value fell last year by 2.9% to £184,222, compounding at 5.0% pa or ~2.0% real since 2000; although by Mar. 2009 the B7 was worth less than at purchase. The basket has lost value during six of 19 periods, the All-Share Index during eight. Average annual outperformance of the Index has been 3.7 percentage points, 14 times out of 19.
Capital value is aethereal to a never-seller, but signals that the income stream is not being bought at the principal's expense. However faith in the stream may be more about security than expansion of its purchasing power, in the nearer term.
DERISKING
Added safety comes from 'derisking' the income. One mimics an index-linked bond and an income reserve backs it up.
The £75,000 basket here illustrated could have been derisked to pay a 2.5% yield in its first year as spendable income. The initial withdrawal rate was meagre due to 'dividend drag', but the B7's buoyancy would have enabled three revisions: in 2007 (+30%), 2012 (+25%) and 2018 (+30%).
The quasi-bond would thereafter pay 5.3% plus uplifts for inflation. It lolls on a reserve worth 15 months of payout at that level. HYP1's income has been substantially bigger but more erratic; it could be derisked to a 5.5%+RPI withdrawal rate with the same size of income reserve.
Derisking would have required 11% of the B7's receipts to be held back, over and above the ~5% which trusts retained. It is a hypercautious stratagem, if you cannot let your income's buying power wobble.
All B7 members pay out quarterly. A cost-effective lump sum would be £10,000 or more gross. With stamp duty of 0.5% and commission of, say, £12.50 a share, ten grand gets a starting income of £359, averaging £33 a time. That is some way below the All-Share yield, but one pays for stability and 'growthiness'.
No corporate actions would have required a response since 2000. Doris sleeps on.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Over the years four members declared ten special dividends excluded from income data, total £794: BCI £49 (two), JCH £73, PLI (six) £603, MRC £69. Yesterday's PLI results omitted a special for its year to Mar. 2019.
(2) Dividends' compound annual growth rate is measured from Apr. 2001, to eliminate arbitrarily different payment times and numbers during the first five months.
Results of the seven chosen ITs are aggregated to a common Mar. year end, since this best fits their various accounting dates. Trends since the B7's backtested launch on Nov. 10, 2000 (also when 'HYP 1' began) are reviewed.
The B7 houses an increasingly eclectic mix of big and small, British and overseas stocks in all lines of business. They are to be bought in equal amounts: Bankers (BNKR), BMO Capital and Income (BCI-- formerly FCI), JPMorgan Claverhouse (JCH), Lowland Investment (LWI), Mercantile (MRC), Murray International (MYI) and Perpetual Income & Growth (PLI). Latest results are for financial years ended between Aug. 2018 and Mar. 2019.
INCOME
The B7 lifted regular dividends per share by 9.1% (2017: +9.4%), or by 6.2% (5.5%) after retail price inflation (RPI). This was above the average real rise of 4.4% pa during 18 complete years (1).
The portfolio's yield at Mar. 31, based on historic or officially forecast payouts, was 3.6% (2018: 3.1%). Such is a little cheaper than the average of 3.4% throughout its life, but it remained a half-point below the FT All-Share Index yield; these trusts have become more wanted for income.
Cover for payouts in 2017-18 again averaged 1.08 times, above the B7's whole-life average of 1.04 times. The basket has not distributed uncovered income since the wake of the global financial crisis in 2011-12. Average revenue reserve has been steady at 12-13 months of current payout since the crisis, albeit below the 15-17 months of earlier years.
On the whole these trusts' divi rates-- though presently rising at ~9% pa-- look prepared for a slowdown in earnings. Reversing the trend of recent years, the basket's Ongoing Charges Ratio rose to 0.61% (0.56%) of year-end net asset value (NAV), which has declined. But that is against a 2000-18 average of 0.81%.
Dividends per share since the putative launch have tripled, more than doubling in real terms. Income's purchasing power increased every year. Trusts imposed real cuts, year on year, on 15 of a possible 70 occasions in the past decade, averaging 2.0% nominal.
CAPITAL
Market values have responded over time to the income stream's steadiness. But they are far from proof against general fluctuations: both NAVs and share prices took hits last year as value stocks lost popularity relative to speculative and momentum punts.
For 2018-19 the composite NAV shrank by 7.2% (2017-18: +14.6%) nominal, or by 10.0% (+10.7%) real. Share prices were 6.3% (+14.7%) to the bad in money terms or 9.2% lower (previously up 10.8%) after inflation. However real changes between year ends since the putative launch have averaged +4.6% for assets per share, 4.7% for the share price.
The B7 outperformed the All-Share Index by an average 3.8% pa on share price, and in 12 of 17 years. The latest lag of 1.3% followed outperformance of 7.9% in 2017-18... and is the third lag in five years.
Three of seven members beat the Index in latest accounting years, after five the year before; albeit BCI has missed the benchmark only by a whisker. The average is for four of seven to outdo the broad equity market.
The average discount of 6.1% at financial year ends is close to the lifetime 6.5%, shrinking by 0.9 of a point since 2017-18. The tightest 2.2% discount was in 2013-14, before jitters about the sustainability of income from 'bond proxy' blue chips set in.
CONSTITUENTS
Briefly, individual trusts' contributions over the last ten years:
First, four income metrics: compound annual real dividend growth after inflation (2), number of real cuts year on year, average cover and months in revenue reserve:
BNKR: 3.2%, 1, 1.04x, 21
BCI: 0.5%, 4, 1.09x, 14
JCH: 2.4%, 2, 1.04x, 19
LWI: 4.8%, 2, 1.02x, 13
MRC: 2.9%, 4, 1.01x, 18
MYI: 5.5%, 1, 1.04x, 13
PLI: 2.9%, 1, 1.10x, 11
--------------------------------
B7: 3.5%, 0, 1.04x, 16
Capital metrics: share price change in decade to latest financial year end, number of years trailing the index, average yield and discount/premium:
BNKR: +173.8%, 3, 2.7%, 7.6%
BCI: +66.4%, 7, 3.8%, -2.0%
JCH: +95.6%, 4, 3.8%, 6.9%
LWI: +142.4%, 4, 3.4%, 4.6%
MRC: +224.1%, 4, 3.1%, 13.4%
MYI: +92.2%, 3, 4.1%, -2.9%
PLI: +90.1%, 3, 3.7%, 5.6%
-----------------------------------------
B7: +138.3%, 3, 3.4%, 6.1%
BCI is still the back-marker for dividend and capital growth, yet usually sells on a premium. Perhaps new owners Bank of Montreal can fix it. Mercantile, with its midcaps focus, has been #1 for capital growth but far the most volatile. Bankers and Lowland are low-yielding but 'growthy' for income; so is Murray International with its foreign flavour. But MYI, and the more orthodox Perpetual more so, grew more erratic and unloved in the past few years-- whereas JPMorgan Claverhouse rallied.
Such twists and turns concern me little. The B7 is an eternity-buy-and-hold job illustrating a method, not setting one permutation in stone. When picked, there was less choice of ITs with track records; today I might chuck a foreign specialist in the mix, whereas BCI was a poor, misidentified pick. Well, most portfolios contain at least one gaffe; it makes this backward-jobbed effort more realistic. No member has blown up. Overall, I am content.
PERFORMANCE 2000-19
Let us see how the B7 would have performed in practice. An investor places the same £75,000 lump sum as Pyad's HYP1, with the same equal weighting and 1% acquisition costs and on the same date: Nov. 10, 2000.
The basket would have collared £6,575 of income last year (1), an 8.5% increase. (HYP1 got £8,882 in the year to Nov. 2018.) The B7's yield on last Apr. 1's opening capital was 3.5%, in line with the historic average. This is competitive with cash or fixed interest, if the collection is viewed as a savings account with some inflation protection for interest and principal. Receipts are free of income tax to the basic-rate payer, or to all within an ISA or using the £2,000 dividend allowance. After 18.5 years the basket's £75,000 investment would have dispensed £73,262 of regular dividends, plus £794 of one-offs.
Market value fell last year by 2.9% to £184,222, compounding at 5.0% pa or ~2.0% real since 2000; although by Mar. 2009 the B7 was worth less than at purchase. The basket has lost value during six of 19 periods, the All-Share Index during eight. Average annual outperformance of the Index has been 3.7 percentage points, 14 times out of 19.
Capital value is aethereal to a never-seller, but signals that the income stream is not being bought at the principal's expense. However faith in the stream may be more about security than expansion of its purchasing power, in the nearer term.
DERISKING
Added safety comes from 'derisking' the income. One mimics an index-linked bond and an income reserve backs it up.
The £75,000 basket here illustrated could have been derisked to pay a 2.5% yield in its first year as spendable income. The initial withdrawal rate was meagre due to 'dividend drag', but the B7's buoyancy would have enabled three revisions: in 2007 (+30%), 2012 (+25%) and 2018 (+30%).
The quasi-bond would thereafter pay 5.3% plus uplifts for inflation. It lolls on a reserve worth 15 months of payout at that level. HYP1's income has been substantially bigger but more erratic; it could be derisked to a 5.5%+RPI withdrawal rate with the same size of income reserve.
Derisking would have required 11% of the B7's receipts to be held back, over and above the ~5% which trusts retained. It is a hypercautious stratagem, if you cannot let your income's buying power wobble.
All B7 members pay out quarterly. A cost-effective lump sum would be £10,000 or more gross. With stamp duty of 0.5% and commission of, say, £12.50 a share, ten grand gets a starting income of £359, averaging £33 a time. That is some way below the All-Share yield, but one pays for stability and 'growthiness'.
No corporate actions would have required a response since 2000. Doris sleeps on.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Over the years four members declared ten special dividends excluded from income data, total £794: BCI £49 (two), JCH £73, PLI (six) £603, MRC £69. Yesterday's PLI results omitted a special for its year to Mar. 2019.
(2) Dividends' compound annual growth rate is measured from Apr. 2001, to eliminate arbitrarily different payment times and numbers during the first five months.