Temple Bar TMPL

[Dod101]

Thanks for that Mike.

The top ten holdings don't seem changed drastically. It would have been interesting to know what he had sold and what he had bought (if anything), or exactly how he is holding the "increased liquidity? I know he does hold some gold and silver (ETF's).

Well the increased liquidity is there for all to see. £130 million in cash v £113 million in borrowings so not only increased liquidity but elimination of the gearing. Read the announcement!

Dod

[richfool]

Sorry, in my haste I didn't see the numbers section at the top. I'd quickly scrolled down to read the text and was then drawn to the listing of the top ten holdings.

So quite a lot of cash ..... poised ready.

(I must see if I can find what PNL are doing).

[Arborbridge]

I note people have written of their "selling down" or "selling on the way down". My instinct is to do the opposite. I would regard selling now - or recently - as a mistake; one which I partially committed in 1987 and regretted fairly soon afterwards. (I would had sold more, but funds were frozen).

As for TMPL specifically, I pay the manager to worry about the portfolio, and I'm not inclined to micro manage for him - I have my own HYP to worry about. He's a contrarian, and to that extent different to my other ITs - I'm happy to leave it to him, at least over the medium term.

If I was sitting on cash, TMPL is an IT I would be buying at the moment - but the wider problem is that we are completely spoilt for choice. Like 1987, the Gulf war etc etc, this is a once in a decade opportunity. When did we have yields this high?

The market will recover, and now is not the time to sell. If it does not recover, we will have far bigger problems to worry about in terms of the breakdown of society.


Arb.

[monabri]

I would imagine they will need to eat into reserves to some extent.

TMPL

Capita Plc 7.2 - already zero yield
Travis Perkins Plc 6.6 - cutter
Royal Dutch Shell Plc 4.8
Grafton Group Plc 4.7 - suspended divi payment
BP Plc 4.4
GlaxoSmithKline Plc 3.9
Tesco Plc 3.9
Barclays Plc 3.7
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc 3.5
EasyJet Plc 2.7 -

[Dod101]

Obviously having so much cash is going to reduce their revenue but we'll need to see what they do re the dividend in due course.

Dod

[richfool]

I note people have written of their "selling down" or "selling on the way down". My instinct is to do the opposite. I would regard selling now - or recently - as a mistake; one which I partially committed in 1987 and regretted fairly soon afterwards. (I would had sold more, but funds were frozen).

As for TMPL specifically, I pay the manager to worry about the portfolio, and I'm not inclined to micro manage for him - I have my own HYP to worry about. He's a contrarian, and to that extent different to my other ITs - I'm happy to leave it to him, at least over the medium term.

If I was sitting on cash, TMPL is an IT I would be buying at the moment - but the wider problem is that we are completely spoilt for choice. Like 1987, the Gulf war etc etc, this is a once in a decade opportunity. When did we have yields this high?

The market will recover, and now is not the time to sell. If it does not recover, we will have far bigger problems to worry about in terms of the breakdown of society.


Arb.

I have historically been a supporter and holder of Temple Bar, but in the light of the Covid 19 pandemic, and the resultant cutting of interest rates, I preferred to stay well away from banks (and oils) and some of TMPL's holdings. That along with the manager's value style (in the current situation) put it on my avoid/reduce/sell list.

Accepted that one should leave the manager of a trust to do his job, but in this instance I preferred to minimise my exposure to the types of investments that TMPL was holding. Call it asset allocation, if you like. So I've taken the opportunity to redirect funds to other IT's I hold, whilst they too were markedly down..

[monabri]

https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust ... ider+Daily


Citywide article today on TMPL.

[richfool]

https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/temple-bar-removes-gearing-after-crisis-talks-with-mundy/a1340711?re=72983&ea=91468&utm_source=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily


Citywide article today on TMPL.

Thanks for that link. Indeed. That (and the comments) about sums it up.

He made the wrong call, as did I after the general election. Not sure that I would want to sell my defensives. I wanted to get away from banks and some of his poor performers as I see no early recovery, so I got out a few days ago and used what was left to top up MATE, SOI & JGGI.

[Parky]

TMPL has now fallen over 50% from its recent high. I have given up trying to imagine what the real valuation could be for this and similar ITs, and am seriously considering topping up in a big way, solely on the "reasoning" that what has fallen the furthest must go up a long way eventually.

Current price 675p
Year high 1492p
Premium to NAV 2.5% (unreliable in these volatile conditions).
Average discount to NA last 12 months 3.5%
Yield 7.6%!
Portfolio. Many of the usual suspects for an income Trust. Overweight in Oils maybe.

Data from HL.

Any comments?

I took the point about the top ten investments being out of favour, but now that Capita has dropped down to a couple of percent of the portfolio it is much less of a risk, so I may take the plunge tomorrow - but then I seem to be changing my mind every day with the wild swings of the market and the frequent inability to trade at a known price (Interactive Investor).

[ADrunkenMarcus]

TMPL used to hold shares such as ULVR. I wish they'd kept them!

Best wishes

Mark.

[richfool]

In being forced to sell some of his holdings, he has effectively consolidated some of the losses. An advantage, perhaps, for someone thinking of buying, as they would be buying in with the losses already reflected in the SP. Though in the current crisis, I just don't like many of his current/remaining holdings.

[monabri]

In being forced to sell some of his holdings, he has effectively consolidated some of the losses. An advantage, perhaps, for someone thinking of buying, as they would be buying in with the losses already reflected in the SP. Though in the current crisis, I just don't like many of his current/remaining holdings.

Me neither!

[richfool]

This can't be helping TMPL due to his holdings of several banks:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coron ... 36655.html

One of the reasons I exited Temple Bar.

[Parky]

This can't be helping TMPL due to his holdings of several banks:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coron ... 36655.html

One of the reasons I exited Temple Bar.

Agreed. It remains to be seen whether ITs cut their dividends by the amount the banks (and other non-payers) would have contributed, or maintain their dividend from reserves (or capital). I can see arguments for both. Some ITs are very proud of their ever increasing dividends. Any evidence emerging yet on which way they will go?

[DavidM13]

This can't be helping TMPL due to his holdings of several banks:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coron ... 36655.html

One of the reasons I exited Temple Bar.

Agreed. It remains to be seen whether ITs cut their dividends by the amount the banks (and other non-payers) would have contributed, or maintain their dividend from reserves (or capital). I can see arguments for both. Some ITs are very proud of their ever increasing dividends. Any evidence emerging yet on which way they will go?

Not yet. There has been one suspension in Leasing sector and one in debt sector but that is it. Plenty more news items affirming the dividend or not reporting as of yet.

[mike]

Two recent RNSs that are of interest regarding the future management of TMPL

From Friday 17 April, Alistair Mundy is on extended leave for health reasons

The Board of Temple Bar Investment Trust PLC has been informed by Ninety One UK Limited ("Ninety One"), the investment manager of the Trust, that Alastair Mundy, who has been the individual portfolio manager of the Trust since 2002, has been given an extended leave of absence by Ninety One for health reasons.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/temple-bar-inv-tst--tmpl-/prn/change-of-portfolio-manager/20200417110500PB1A3/


And today, we have a Service of Protective Notice issued on Ninety One Ltd (formerly Investec)

Further to the announcement made on 17 April 2020 the Board of Temple Bar has concluded that, in the current circumstances, it is appropriate to conduct a review of the future management arrangements of the Trust. The Board does not wish to pre-empt the results of such review and it is certainly possible that the existing management arrangements will be maintained. Nonetheless, the Board believes that it is prudent at this time to serve protective notice on the Trust's investment manager, Ninety One UK Limited ("Ninety One"). Accordingly the Trust has today, in accordance with the terms of the investment management agreement between the Trust and Ninety One, served 12 months notice on Ninety One.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/temple-bar-inv-tst--tmpl-/prn/service-of-protective-notice/20200420160000PAF93/

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Interesting.

Shape up or they’ll get a new manager!

[Parky]

TMPL has now fallen over 50% from its recent high. I have given up trying to imagine what the real valuation could be for this and similar ITs, and am seriously considering topping up in a big way, solely on the "reasoning" that what has fallen the furthest must go up a long way eventually.

Current price 675p
Year high 1492p
Premium to NAV 2.5% (unreliable in these volatile conditions).
Average discount to NA last 12 months 3.5%
Yield 7.6%!
Portfolio. Many of the usual suspects for an income Trust. Overweight in Oils maybe.

Data from HL.

Any comments?

Thanks for all your comments, following which I did not add to my TMPL holding, and even though it is 5% above the price when I originally posted, the latest developments could well result in a bumpy road ahead. The "eventually" in my original post could be a very long way away.

[Dod101]

A lot of movement with investment managers at the moment, and Alistair Mundy has not got a very good record at Temple Bar, not in recent times anyway. He has always been a contrarian of course and that will not always work but Investec (or Ninety One as it is now called) is not doing very well these days. I welcome the moves by Temple Bar because at least they are doing something about the poor performance.

It will be interesting to watch developments.

Good luck to Mr Mundy. I hope he has not got the C virus.

Dod

[Dod101]

I was amused to see from today's announcement by Temple Bar that the notice to shareholders is signed by Ninety One as Company Secretary so they have served twelve months notice on themselves!

Dod