Scottish Mortgage heading for where

[Bouleversee]

I'd be happy to leave it to SMT to do the necessary.

[Bouleversee]

FWIW, which may be not much, this is the advice of Tempus in The Times today as regards Tesla:

"Avoid. Why? Tesla's valuation is unmoored from reality and buying its shares is a gamble. "

Isn't buying any share a gamble?

ELsewhere in the paper it announces that Tesla has started on the construction of a new factory in Austin, Texas.

[G3lc]

I think the market in general may be “unmoored from reality” - its only at the highs it is because of the loss in confidence in money going forward.

[unperplex]

I see SMT are down about 3% at the close, probably reflecting the worldwide jitters about US-China tensions. As I mentioned a week or two earlierI sold my holding at756p in the (vain as it turned out)hope that it would drop and I could buy again at a significantly lower price.
I want to get back on the SMT growth train and so I saw today’s drop as a chance to do so. I bought some SMT today at 876p ( not the full amount of my original holding, because I am still hoping for a more significant drop).
I am fairly sure SMT will continue to rise over time, but with (I hope) some intermittent volatility allowing me to buy further shares at lower prices.

[Dod101]

I see SMT are down about 3% at the close, probably reflecting the worldwide jitters about US-China tensions. As I mentioned a week or two earlierI sold my holding at756p in the (vain as it turned out)hope that it would drop and I could buy again at a significantly lower price.
I want to get back on the SMT growth train and so I saw today’s drop as a chance to do so. I bought some SMT today at 876p ( not the full amount of my original holding, because I am still hoping for a more significant drop).
I am fairly sure SMT will continue to rise over time, but with (I hope) some intermittent volatility allowing me to buy further shares at lower prices.

Trying to time the market is a mug's game. Mind you I have tried it myself and if you get it right you think you are a genius, but I but it is down to luck and I rarely attempt it. Unlike you, I usually try to buy on a dip and sell later when it rises. The worst then is that you are left holding the baby but as shares rise more than they fall that I think has more chance of working than what you tried, unfortunately. And I would not bet against SMT!

Dod

[unperplex]

You are of course quite correct in that it is impossible to be certain when a share is at its lowest or highest price and if you do get it right, it is luck.
In a way, though, I only differ from you in a couple of (albeit important) respects.
I did buy SMT on a dip (or rather a series of dips) and sold when I (wrongly of course) considered it had reached a high point.I did in fact make a substantial gain.
Where we differ is that you probably would (a) not sell the whole of the holding, but perhaps 10 or 15% and (b) not buy again, but reinvest in an income producing share - like Legal and General.
When I build my SMT holding back up again I may well adopt a similar strategy.
I also like Legal and General and they are my largest holding.
I am not in fact betting against SMT.
I am sure it will go up over time.
The price however has some volatility (you have said so yourself) and I am hoping to buy (again) on some of the dips.
Your comments, as always, are sound and welcome.
I would not suggest that everyone behaves as I do.
I was merely setting out what I have done, warts and all, in a spirit of mutual exchange of information.

[Dod101]

Indeed unperplex. And I am certainly not advising anyone to do what I do. In fact I probably made not a bad call in early January (except with the benefit of hindsight) when I top slice at £5.85, it having risen about 23% in 2019. Not sure now why I then top sliced again at £6.12 a few months later though. Finally I caught the recent high of £9.17. The proceeds from the first sale went into Diageo and Chesnara, the second into 3i Infrastructure and the third sale went into Legal & General. So I was converting capital profits into what I hope are fairly secure dividend payers.

That was always the idea for holding Scottish Mortgage and this year it has worked out quite well. Incidentally I still hold more Scottish Mortgage by value than I did at the end of 2019. If not for those sales SMT would now have been more than 10% of my entire portfolio which I would not have wanted.

Dod

[ADrunkenMarcus]

If not for those sales SMT would now have been more than 10% of my entire portfolio which I would not have wanted.

I don't mind that much in a collective. My SIPP is 46% in Smithson. In my dividend growth portfolio, I have 18% or so in Murray International followed by 10% in MasterCard, 9.5% in Unilever and 8.7% in Spirax Sarco Engineering, so I don't mind concentration. However, I'm a lot younger than you and still working so I'm still growing my capital.

best wishes

Mark.

[unperplex]

Thanks for the information, Dod and Marcus.
I am retired (more or less)- well past statutory retirement age - and income is obviously high on my agenda.
I am however still attracted to SMT’s growth.I also have a smaller holding in Foreign and Colonial (FCIT).
Dod’s strategy of converting some of the gains from growth shares into Income-producing shares seems like one to consider.
Like many on Lemon Fool, I have been moving a little over the last year or so from individual shares to Investment Trusts.
I have tried to keep things diversified a bit and have a substantial holding both in City of London (CTY) and also in the (very different) Henderson Far East Income Ltd. (HFEL).
I have far fewer holdings (11- all in an ISA) than Dod (who has I think about 30), although I would probably not put quite as many of my eggs in one basket as Marcus seems to have done in his SIPP (with 46% in Smithson).
My aims are probably a little closer to those of Dod.

[Bouleversee]

Thanks for the information, Dod and Marcus.
I am retired (more or less)- well past statutory retirement age - and income is obviously high on my agenda.
I am however still attracted to SMT’s growth.I also have a smaller holding in Foreign and Colonial (FCIT).
Dod’s strategy of converting some of the gains from growth shares into Income-producing shares seems like one to consider.
Like many on Lemon Fool, I have been moving a little over the last year or so from individual shares to Investment Trusts.
I have tried to keep things diversified a bit and have a substantial holding both in City of London (CTY) and also in the (very different) Henderson Far East Income Ltd. (HFEL).
I have far fewer holdings (11- all in an ISA) than Dod (who has I think about 30), although I would probably not put quite as many of my eggs in one basket as Marcus seems to have done in his SIPP (with 46% in Smithson).
My aims are probably a little closer to those of Dod.

Would it not make more sense to sell sufficient of SMT (or whichever high growth share you have) to give you sufficient extra income you might need at any point rather than switch a chunk of the growth-share capital into a non-growth but higher dividend stock, bearing in mind that doing the latter would incur 2 lots of commission rather than one plus sdrt on the purchase and the extra growth might make up the capital reduction quite quickly? I haven't done any sums on this, which is what I have always thought I would do if I needed more cash, but I noticed Fisher Investments were suggesting this approach on Citywire last week. I have such a stupidly large number of holdings that I don't need to worry about percentages and am only too delighted if one or more rockets.

[Avantegarde]

To top-slice my groaningly large holding in SM (now up to 17% of my portfolio), I may sell regular amounts each month at a rate of, say, £1,000 worth of shares per month for the next six months or so. I believe stockbrokers types call this "profit-taking". If the share price rises in that time, I would enjoy more cash per share. If the share price starts falling, I can always stop this gentle selling programme. By the way, are there any World ex-US tracker funds?

[Dod101]

If not for those sales SMT would now have been more than 10% of my entire portfolio which I would not have wanted.

I don't mind that much in a collective. My SIPP is 46% in Smithson. In my dividend growth portfolio, I have 18% or so in Murray International followed by 10% in MasterCard, 9.5% in Unilever and 8.7% in Spirax Sarco Engineering, so I don't mind concentration. However, I'm a lot younger than you and still working so I'm still growing my capital.

best wishes/quote]

Were I you I would like to think I would do the same but I would not. I am too cautious. Maybe that has something to do with age. Anyway good for you and I wish you well.

Dod

[monabri]

. By the way, are there any World ex-US tracker funds?

There probably is but you could "DIY", where

VWRL = VNRT (56%), VEUR (20%), VAPX (6%), VJPN (8%) and VFEM (10%).

Just omit VNRT.

(These are all Vanguard funds- Lots of discussion here so I won't labour what each ticker means).

viewtopic.php?p=201261#p201261

[bluedonkey]

At 30.6.20, SMT's top 5 holdings:

12.7% Tesla (1,870,000 shares)
9.4% Amazon (541,480 shares)
6.0% Illumina (2,571,060 shares)
6.1% Tencent (15,081,000 shares)
5.2% Alibaba (3,802,877 shares)

39.4% TOTAL

No Facebook.

[DavidM13]

It has about 0.3% in facebook

[bluedonkey]

It has about 0.3% in facebook

I looked down the list on the SMT website and couldn't see it under "F". Excuse the lack of formatting; this is a paste from the website:

Valuation as at 30 June 2020
Asset Name ISIN Number Holding Market Value
(GBP)
% Total Assets
Listed Equities
Alibaba US01609W1027 3,802,877 663,933,819 5.2
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals US02043Q1076 327,000 39,189,187 0.3
Alphabet Inc Class C US02079K1079 146,800 167,947,944 1.3
Amazon.com US0231351067 541,480 1,207,790,510 9.4
Anaplan Inc Common US03272L1089 1,871,644 68,588,573 0.5
ASML NL0010273215 1,618,000 480,722,934 3.7
Atlas Copco A SE0011166610 3,489,067 119,659,966 0.9
bluebird bio Inc US09609G1004 695,000 34,333,765 0.3
Delivery Hero AG DE000A2E4K43 4,641,949 384,318,439 3.0
Denali Therapeutics US24823R1059 3,745,680 73,209,916 0.6
Eventbrite Inc Class B Common N/A 1,630,434 11,295,334 0.1
Ferrari NV NL0011585146 2,003,000 276,479,911 2.1
Global AI Opportunities Fund MT7000000121 47,335 4,718,261 0.0
HDFC Corp INE001A01036 4,245,400 79,847,738 0.6

[MaraMan]

I think SMT were reducing their already small position in Facebook in recent months, so it looks like they have removed it completely, based on the current list.

MM

[nmdhqbc]

If you click on the link "Full Portfolio Valuation" you get the whole lot in a pdf. It's from end of June though. No facebook there then...

https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/in ... june-2020/

[DavidM13]

Thousand apologies. I normally quote the date of my data! Mine was from 31/05/2020.

[bluedonkey]

I think SMT were reducing their already small position in Facebook in recent months, so it looks like they have removed it completely, based on the current list.

MM

Interesting that SMT no longer own FB but it is one of Fundsmith's larger holdings at 31.7.20, 4th in their list. Monks still has a modest holding at 31.7.20, 20th in their holdings list.