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Scottish Mortgage heading for where

Closed-end funds and OEICs
bluedonkey
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#350826

Postby bluedonkey » October 26th, 2020, 5:40 pm

My figures could be wrong if there are several classes of Ant shares.

nmdhqbc
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#350835

Postby nmdhqbc » October 26th, 2020, 5:50 pm

bluedonkey wrote:
nmdhqbc wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:I see Ant Group's flotation values it at $313 billion. This is another business backed by SMT in the early stages. I don't know what size of holding they now have but their judgement when investing in unquoted companies continues to look brilliant, particularly compare to Mr Woodford!


1.6% on 31Aug2020. Who knows what the valuation was then compared to $313bn...

https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/in ... gust-2020/

By a rather tortuous method, I calculated (possibly very unreliably) that SMT's holding in Ant is worth $5bn. This seems staggeringly high. My workings:

1.67 billion shares represents 11%, therefore total shares = 15.182bn.
SMT has 0.239bn shares.
0.239 / 15.182 = 1.6% (by coincidence the same % as the holding represents of SMT's assets per the August 2020 disclosure)
1.6% x $313bn = $5bn.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/22/ant-gro ... -ipo-.html


I think the 0.239bn you've got there is actually the "Market Value (GBP)" column of the pdf I linked not the number of shares. They seem to only show that for the listed equities.

bluedonkey
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#350848

Postby bluedonkey » October 26th, 2020, 6:28 pm

I think the 0.239bn you've got there is actually the "Market Value (GBP)" column of the pdf I linked not the number of shares. They seem to only show that for the listed equities.


Ah yes, you're right. Please completely ignore my calculations. The common sense test said the conclusion was dubious and common sense was right!

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#350968

Postby Dod101 » October 27th, 2020, 10:35 am

I think bluedonkey's valuation for SMT's stake cannot be right but I think the real question is how SMT are valuing their Ant holding at 31 August because the new valuation if the IPO goes ahead at the $313 billion valuation is, according to The Times this morning, something like twice its value established by a private fund raising two years ago. It is apparently a spin off from Alibaba. Some spin off!

This sort of thing is the reason that I have bought into Baillie Gifford China Growth. They will not find many like this I suppose, but if they find one, that's enough, and in the meantime, I buy in to the rising middle class in China. There is of course the question of governance and so on so it is not all rosy.

Dod

scrumpyjack
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#350989

Postby scrumpyjack » October 27th, 2020, 11:17 am

I think SMT have got to the point that they are a preferred source of capital for these sort of businesses because of their track record, their size and their knowledge. So disruptors go to them to seek backing and they can pick and choose which to back. Because of this they get the opportunities that others don’t and have the judgement to back the right ones.

Another reason to continue holding SMT even though their share price has performed so well. Virtuous circle!

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#350993

Postby jackdaww » October 27th, 2020, 11:22 am

Dod101 wrote:I think bluedonkey's valuation for SMT's stake cannot be right but I think the real question is how SMT are valuing their Ant holding at 31 August because the new valuation if the IPO goes ahead at the $313 billion valuation is, according to The Times this morning, something like twice its value established by a private fund raising two years ago. It is apparently a spin off from Alibaba. Some spin off!

This sort of thing is the reason that I have bought into Baillie Gifford China Growth. They will not find many like this I suppose, but if they find one, that's enough, and in the meantime, I buy in to the rising middle class in China. There is of course the question of governance and so on so it is not all rosy.

Dod


===========================

ETF HSBC FAR EAST EXCL JAPAN - HMAF is very similar to BGCG , at half the charges and no stamp duty .

they both hold samsung and taiwan which is not strictly china .

:) :idea:

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#351014

Postby Dod101 » October 27th, 2020, 11:46 am

jackdaww wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I think bluedonkey's valuation for SMT's stake cannot be right but I think the real question is how SMT are valuing their Ant holding at 31 August because the new valuation if the IPO goes ahead at the $313 billion valuation is, according to The Times this morning, something like twice its value established by a private fund raising two years ago. It is apparently a spin off from Alibaba. Some spin off!

This sort of thing is the reason that I have bought into Baillie Gifford China Growth. They will not find many like this I suppose, but if they find one, that's enough, and in the meantime, I buy in to the rising middle class in China. There is of course the question of governance and so on so it is not all rosy.

Dod


===========================

ETF HSBC FAR EAST EXCL JAPAN - HMAF is very similar to BGCG , at half the charges and no stamp duty .

they both hold samsung and taiwan which is not strictly china .

:) :idea:


Interesting. Will take a look. It may be difficult to judge the holdings of BCGG because BG only took over in the last few weeks and they may not have aligned the portfolio yet to their taste.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#351064

Postby monabri » October 27th, 2020, 1:55 pm

Another candidate might be Vanguard's ETF "VFEM" fund.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... arkets-etf

scrumpyjack
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#352987

Postby scrumpyjack » November 3rd, 2020, 1:31 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:I see Ant Group's flotation values it at $313 billion. This is another business backed by SMT in the early stages. I don't know what size of holding they now have but their judgement when investing in unquoted companies continues to look brilliant, particularly compare to Mr Woodford!


re the Ant Group flotation, it is now trading at a 50% premium to this valuation ahead of its IPO this week, according to Bloomberg.

SMT have an interest both directly and via their holding in Alibaba

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#353003

Postby scrumpyjack » November 3rd, 2020, 2:08 pm

and just announced, the Shanghai Exchange has suspended the Shanghai element of the IPO because of 'regulatory problems' (no word on whether the Hong Kong listing goes ahead). I guess they don't have many $400 billion company IPOs there.

The numbers are absurd aren't they! A hundred billion here and a hundred billion there and pretty soon you're talking big numbers.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#353695

Postby DavidM13 » November 5th, 2020, 10:40 am

NORTH!

bluedonkey
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#353698

Postby bluedonkey » November 5th, 2020, 10:50 am

It seems that the suspension of the Ant IPO has had no discernible effect on the SMT share price. I feel like someone trying to understand the world by looking at shadows in a cave.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#353700

Postby scrumpyjack » November 5th, 2020, 10:56 am

bluedonkey wrote:It seems that the suspension of the Ant IPO has had no discernible effect on the SMT share price. I feel like someone trying to understand the world by looking at shadows in a cave.


A 10% drop in a share that is perhaps 5% of their portfolio isn't going to have much effect.
SMT has holdings in about 80 companies and many, like Amazon and Tesla, are going up as the Nasdaq rises.

The GOP holding their senate majority is going to prevent the democrats reversing Trumps tax cuts so it is not surprising US shares are relieved.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#353707

Postby Bouleversee » November 5th, 2020, 11:06 am

I also read in The Times that "a Chinese maker of electric cars has overtaken Tesla as top stock" so was expecting SMT to go down today and planned to add.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#353759

Postby UncleEbenezer » November 5th, 2020, 12:47 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:
bluedonkey wrote:It seems that the suspension of the Ant IPO has had no discernible effect on the SMT share price. I feel like someone trying to understand the world by looking at shadows in a cave.


A 10% drop in a share that is perhaps 5% of their portfolio isn't going to have much effect.
SMT has holdings in about 80 companies and many, like Amazon and Tesla, are going up as the Nasdaq rises.

The GOP holding their senate majority is going to prevent the democrats reversing Trumps tax cuts so it is not surprising US shares are relieved.

US politics potentially great for shares, if Biden reverses Trump's "only one in step" trade wars, while at the same time facing the GOP checks-and-balances. SMT is one among many looking happy.

Could also be a recipe for a huge bubble if it pushes borrowing yet further through the roof.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#353761

Postby Dod101 » November 5th, 2020, 1:02 pm

The latest report via Mr Google is that the Hong Kong listing is also suspended. The report also said that Scottish Mortgage was not too subdued because of it, being up 1.8%, although the likes of Manchester and London and JPM China Growth are down.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#353970

Postby scrumpyjack » November 6th, 2020, 7:49 am

Half year report out today

https://investegate.co.uk/scot-mort-inv ... 00024479E/

as ever worth reading.

They have even increased the divi a little! A worthy member of my LYP

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#353978

Postby Dod101 » November 6th, 2020, 8:24 am

Thanks scrumpyjack.

I see that they disclose £286 million or 1.8% of their assets in Ant. They also have a new holding in Ocado. Substantially reduced their holdings in Tesla and in Amazon. SMT has been a remarkable share this year and indeed over the last five years.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#354285

Postby richfool » November 7th, 2020, 9:09 am

6 November 2020
Scottish Mortgage (SMT ) fund managers James Anderson and Tom Slater have made their first sale of Amazon stock on pure investment grounds, questioning the ability of the US internet giant they have backed for over a decade to maintain its rapid share price growth.

Amazon shares have surged nearly 80% this year as the company has seen demand for its online shopping services soar in the pandemic, pushing its valuation towards $1.7tn.

That startling rise has prompted Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and chief executive, to cash in some of his chips, selling 1m shares and netting £2.3bn on Wednesday, according to a US regulatory filing.

Now it has emerged that Anderson and co-manager Slater have been thinking along the same lines, reducing what was their top long-standing holding of around 10% to 7.9% at the end of September.

https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/cityw ... high-value

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#354516

Postby richfool » November 8th, 2020, 11:22 am

There are some further views on the FAANG's and in particular Amazon and Alphabet on the Mid Wynd thread:

viewtopic.php?f=54&t=22629&p=354510#p354510


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