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Scottish Mortgage heading for where

Closed-end funds and OEICs
DavidM13
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#354714

Postby DavidM13 » November 9th, 2020, 10:41 am

DavidM13 wrote:NORTH!


NORTHER!

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#354722

Postby Adamski » November 9th, 2020, 10:50 am

Up 2.7% this morning. Could be a reversion to the mean. Looking at the trend had an insane growth rate from March to July. Now on a flater and lower, but still impressive, growth August to November.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#354726

Postby scrumpyjack » November 9th, 2020, 10:59 am

Adamski wrote:Up 2.7% this morning. Could be a reversion to the mean. Looking at the trend had an insane growth rate from March to July. Now on a flater and lower, but still impressive, growth August to November.


It simply reflects the share prices of the companies it invests in, so where it goes depends on the SP trends for Tesla, Amazon, Tencent, Alibaba etc (x80 or so companies SMT holds)

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#354798

Postby Bouleversee » November 9th, 2020, 1:59 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:
Adamski wrote:Up 2.7% this morning. Could be a reversion to the mean. Looking at the trend had an insane growth rate from March to July. Now on a flater and lower, but still impressive, growth August to November.


It simply reflects the share prices of the companies it invests in, so where it goes depends on the SP trends for Tesla, Amazon, Tencent, Alibaba etc (x80 or so companies SMT holds)


And some of those will be up and some down. I see that SMT are going down now.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#355259

Postby Bouleversee » November 10th, 2020, 3:51 pm

At what point does SMT become a buy again?

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#355278

Postby kempiejon » November 10th, 2020, 4:31 pm

Bouleversee wrote:At what point does SMT become a buy again?

I've added to SMT at prices between a few quid and over a tenner, I've sold at eight and nine quid, a tenner too.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#355282

Postby Dod101 » November 10th, 2020, 4:37 pm

Bouleversee wrote:At what point does SMT become a buy again?


Just over £10 closing and down around 6% so we are in volatile territory. Sadly no one can answer your question. If I were thinking of buying I would put in an order at just under £10 and see what happens. None of us can time the market especially at the moment so that would be all I could do. I am not though because it is now easily my biggest holding. I would be looking to top slice yet again if anything. I have already done so three times this year and will probably leave it until the new year and think about it then.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#355295

Postby seagles » November 10th, 2020, 4:58 pm

Was looking at SMT for my granddaughters JISA (richest 2 month old on the planet :lol: ). After looking at them and a few others decided to plump for F&C IT at 6.4 discount, what swayed it was the breakdown of holdings. Next tranch for her will be next April, so will keep an eye on SMT, along with the other regulars, MWY and MONKs.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#355305

Postby langley59 » November 10th, 2020, 5:20 pm

seagles wrote:Was looking at SMT for my granddaughters JISA (richest 2 month old on the planet :lol: ). After looking at them and a few others decided to plump for F&C IT at 6.4 discount, what swayed it was the breakdown of holdings. Next tranch for her will be next April, so will keep an eye on SMT, along with the other regulars, MWY and MONKs.

I think FCIT is a good choice. I invested a small amount each month (equivalent to the child benefit) for my kids and now they have an investment each worth well into the tens of thousands. Unfortunately there was no JISA back then so I held the shares within an F&C plan in my name and am currently going through a several year process to sell and repurchase in ISAs in their names, this process being constrained by my desire to stay within CGT limits each year on the sales.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#355314

Postby Bouleversee » November 10th, 2020, 5:42 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:At what point does SMT become a buy again?


Just over £10 closing and down around 6% so we are in volatile territory. Sadly no one can answer your question. If I were thinking of buying I would put in an order at just under £10 and see what happens. None of us can time the market especially at the moment so that would be all I could do. I am not though because it is now easily my biggest holding. I would be looking to top slice yet again if anything. I have already done so three times this year and will probably leave it until the new year and think about it then.

Dod


I decided to make a top up at £10.16 shortly before close this afternoon. I don't have a large holding and it has done better than most of my shares in the past year; no danger of my being overweight. If it continues down I'll buy more for my family who have cash doing nothing in their ISAs.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#359690

Postby scrumpyjack » November 24th, 2020, 5:20 pm

SMT heading up again and Tesla at a new high of $542.

If I sell they will go up substantially and if I hold on, Murphy's law says they will fall!

Indecision, so I'll do nothing, again.

ps Elon Musk's net worth has now overtaken Bill Gates

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#359716

Postby Bouleversee » November 24th, 2020, 7:05 pm

Well, I'm already showing a profit on my latest buy. I think they are as good as anything and worth buying on the dips.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#359780

Postby Dod101 » November 24th, 2020, 11:35 pm

Most ITs are only as good as the manager and I totally trust Baillie Gifford. That is not to say that they will always be the best but they will be as good as they can be. Cannot really compare SMT with FCIT; the management styles are quite different. Out and out growth with SMT, a more balanced and pedestrian style from FCIT. Who is to say which is better? Hold both I suppose.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#359855

Postby Adamski » November 25th, 2020, 10:02 am

I think that Scottish Mortgage has an ever present risk of a tech correction following the doubling of its price during the pandemic.

Tesla is I think the biggest risk of correcting. But with a holding of 14% the impact is limited.

One of my neighbours has a couple of Teslas on the drive. Lovely car, but... YTD return 564%. Just look at the chart. It has the look and feel of the dot-com boom/crash about it. Tesla is going up and up cause of:

* the image of being of "the future"
* Robinhood/Millennial investors piling in
* "short squeeze" where those shorting the stock have to buy shares when shares rocket to limit their losses

The effect of the feel good, Robinhood investors and short squeeze all buying at once drives a bubble up to ever higher prices.

Another thing that bothers me about SMT is increasing its limits on its unquoted form 25% to 30%. Woodford had 10% and this was seen as hyper risky but for SMT its ok.

I've been wrong all year about SMT, but at some point either the profitability of its investments (Telsa, Amazon, China tech) catches up with the valuations/PE or there will be corrections to bring the valuations in line with the reality.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#359861

Postby swill453 » November 25th, 2020, 10:06 am

The market cap of Tesla is now more than Toyota, VW, Hyundai, GM and Ford combined.

That would make me a little scared, though of course also regretful I didn't invest.

Scott.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#359866

Postby Bouleversee » November 25th, 2020, 10:19 am

I don't quarrel with what you say but I know that SMT's managers will do a better job of making adjustments than I would, especially as I always sit on the fence and do nothing. :oops:

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#359871

Postby scrumpyjack » November 25th, 2020, 10:28 am

Adamski wrote:I think that Scottish Mortgage has an ever present risk of a tech correction following the doubling of its price during the pandemic.

Tesla is I think the biggest risk of correcting. But with a holding of 14% the impact is limited.

One of my neighbours has a couple of Teslas on the drive. Lovely car, but... YTD return 564%. Just look at the chart. It has the look and feel of the dot-com boom/crash about it. Tesla is going up and up cause of:

* the image of being of "the future"
* Robinhood/Millennial investors piling in
* "short squeeze" where those shorting the stock have to buy shares when shares rocket to limit their losses

The effect of the feel good, Robinhood investors and short squeeze all buying at once drives a bubble up to ever higher prices.

Another thing that bothers me about SMT is increasing its limits on its unquoted form 25% to 30%. Woodford had 10% and this was seen as hyper risky but for SMT its ok.

I've been wrong all year about SMT, but at some point either the profitability of its investments (Telsa, Amazon, China tech) catches up with the valuations/PE or there will be corrections to bring the valuations in line with the reality.


or the reality may not be what you think it is!

Like Dod, i trust the SMT managers to be a lot better at judging these things than I am.
It may be that part of the reason for the rise in Tesla is the factors you mention, but there are a lot of other reasons why people like Tom Slater think Tesla has a very bright future.

As for investing in unquoteds, I fully support SMT increasing the amount they put into them. Many of their best gains have been from companies they invested in whilst unquoted. Also there is a world of difference between a closed ended trust like SMT investing in unquoteds and an open ended fund like Woodfords. The closed ended vehicle can never be a forced seller, whilst an open ended one as Woodford discovered, can be. Not to mention that the Baillie Gifford guys can reasonably be felt to know what they are doing whilst Woodford was totally out of his depth.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#359872

Postby Dod101 » November 25th, 2020, 10:31 am

Adamski wrote:I think that Scottish Mortgage has an ever present risk of a tech correction following the doubling of its price during the pandemic.

Tesla is I think the biggest risk of correcting. But with a holding of 14% the impact is limited.

One of my neighbours has a couple of Teslas on the drive. Lovely car, but... YTD return 564%. Just look at the chart. It has the look and feel of the dot-com boom/crash about it. Tesla is going up and up cause of:

* the image of being of "the future"
* Robinhood/Millennial investors piling in
* "short squeeze" where those shorting the stock have to buy shares when shares rocket to limit their losses

The effect of the feel good, Robinhood investors and short squeeze all buying at once drives a bubble up to ever higher prices.

Another thing that bothers me about SMT is increasing its limits on its unquoted form 25% to 30%. Woodford had 10% and this was seen as hyper risky but for SMT its ok.

I've been wrong all year about SMT, but at some point either the profitability of its investments (Telsa, Amazon, China tech) catches up with the valuations/PE or there will be corrections to bring the valuations in line with the reality.


I am not saying that you are wrong and a bit of down to earth comment is always worthwhile but we are told that Baillie Gifford have significantly sold down their holdings in Tesla (not just in the SMT fund) and so are presumably fairly happy with the current holding. They know a lot more about Tesla and Ellon Musk than any of us here do and I will just let them get on with it. Scottish Mortgage has always been volatile; that is the nature of the beast and no risk no gain and all that. They have an amazing record in investing in unquoted shares and making a lot of money from them. Whether I would buy SMT now I do not know but what I do know is that I have done very well from them and have topped sliced them three times this year and extracted about 15% of my holding each time. It is still worth more today than they were at 1 January.

Dod

PS I see that scrumpyjack has made most of the points I have just made but I will let my post stand.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#359953

Postby airbus330 » November 25th, 2020, 1:52 pm

swill453 wrote:The market cap of Tesla is now more than Toyota, VW, Hyundai, GM and Ford combined.

That would make me a little scared, though of course also regretful I didn't invest.

Scott.

The question many ask is, can Tesla be compared with the list above if it is regarded as a tech company rather than a car producer?
If it is a tech company, and you believe that cars will be a small Tesla division in 10 years time, and there is a huge amount of innovative tech derived from the car development in the pipeline. Then you are a 'believer' and the SP is reasonable. I know one or two of them. Personally, I'll stick with SMT making that call.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#360317

Postby Bouleversee » November 26th, 2020, 3:30 pm

If anyone has time to read it and hasn't already done so:

https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/in ... mber-2020/


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