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Scottish Mortgage heading for where

Closed-end funds and OEICs
Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#376168

Postby Dod101 » January 12th, 2021, 10:17 am

Adamski wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:...there a question mark over Ali Baba, too, for political reasons? The boss seems to have got into hot water with the Chinese govt. My problem is remembering all I read with avid interest now that my brain is permanently fogged.


yes the boss has got in hot water, CEO Jack Ma hasn't been seen since October, but he isn't "missing" just upset the Chinese communist party by criticising them, and told to lay low.

As well as criticising the CCP, there is an issue that Alibaba is too powerful, and the CCP wants to make it down a peg or two. Alibaba set up Alipay, now Ant 33% owned by Baba, which is used for billions of financial transactions on phones in China, making cash obsolete.

The CCP blocked the IPO of the Ant Group, then launched an investigation into Alibaba and ordered the Ant Group revamp its businesses to stop anti competitive behaviour.

I think SMT have a 5% holding on Alibaba, whose share price boomed Mar to Oct, but has dropped back down last 3 months because of this. Arguably it is undervalued, say compared to Amazon, as it dominates eCommerce in China.


Do you have any evidence for the comments on Jack Ma? At 30 September 6.1% of SMT's portfolio was in Alibaba.


Dod

joey
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#376175

Postby joey » January 12th, 2021, 10:28 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:Well done. It's falling now.


I noticed :D

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#376222

Postby Bouleversee » January 12th, 2021, 1:05 pm

Dod asked:

"Do you have any evidence for the comments on Jack Ma? At 30 September 6.1% of SMT's portfolio was in Alibaba."
I read about it in The Times: "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mystery-of-chinas-missing-alibaba-tycoon-jack-ma-7nh9vnqhv" Similar articles in FT and elsewhere.

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#376229

Postby Dod101 » January 12th, 2021, 1:19 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Dod asked:

"Do you have any evidence for the comments on Jack Ma? At 30 September 6.1% of SMT's portfolio was in Alibaba."
I read about it in The Times: "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mystery-of-chinas-missing-alibaba-tycoon-jack-ma-7nh9vnqhv" Similar articles in FT and elsewhere.


Thanks. I obviously missed that in my paper but Googling the same thing would suggest that no one really knows where he is but judging by what has happened to others it is likely that he has been told to lie low. I am genuinely interested but I am not sure we ought to take these comments as fact, more like informed speculation. A lot rides on the attitude of the CCP; that is why I am interested.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#376306

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 12th, 2021, 4:33 pm

joey wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:Well done. It's falling now.


I noticed :D

Indeed. And you warned us ahead of time, so we've noone but ourselves to blame for failing to take heed. :oops:

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#376598

Postby toofast2live » January 13th, 2021, 2:22 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:Dod asked:

"Do you have any evidence for the comments on Jack Ma? At 30 September 6.1% of SMT's portfolio was in Alibaba."
I read about it in The Times: "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mystery-of-chinas-missing-alibaba-tycoon-jack-ma-7nh9vnqhv" Similar articles in FT and elsewhere.


Thanks. I obviously missed that in my paper but Googling the same thing would suggest that no one really knows where he is but judging by what has happened to others it is likely that he has been told to lie low. I am genuinely interested but I am not sure we ought to take these comments as fact, more like informed speculation. A lot rides on the attitude of the CCP; that is why I am interested.

Dod


Rather than lying low I think he will be dead or imprisoned By now.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#376730

Postby bluedonkey » January 13th, 2021, 7:18 pm

MaraMan wrote:Apologies if this has already been posted, but holders of SMT may find this interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpBESgEo3m8

MM

Finally got round to watching this. Strongly recommend watching if you haven't already. Very different from the usual pseudo-macroeconomic guff most investment managers come out with.

richfool
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#377811

Postby richfool » January 16th, 2021, 3:02 pm

Scottish Mortgage calls for patience amid China tech crackdown

Fund managers of UK's biggest investment trust play down threat from China’s crackdown on big tech companies in which they are invested but appeal for more time to find out what is going on.

https://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/n ... test1-list

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#378785

Postby scrumpyjack » January 20th, 2021, 8:59 am

I see Bloomberg report that Jack Ma has reappeared, suitably towing the CCP line now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=mwlrlP7l

"Ma’s comments on Wednesday struck a much different tone, echoing themes espoused by the ruling Communist Party. He spoke about the importance of reviving China’s countryside and narrowing income disparities by encouraging the return of younger talent to rural areas.

“Recently, my colleagues and I have been studying and thinking. We made a firmer resolution to devote ourselves to education philanthropy,” Ma said in the video, which was first posted online by a local blog. “Working hard for rural revitalization and common prosperity is the responsibility for our generation of businessmen.”"

Alibaba's shares rose sharply, and perhaps this accounts for the uptick in SMT with all their Chinese holdings

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#378790

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » January 20th, 2021, 9:22 am

scrumpyjack wrote:I see Bloomberg report that Jack Ma has reappeared, suitably towing the CCP line now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=mwlrlP7l

"Ma’s comments on Wednesday struck a much different tone, echoing themes espoused by the ruling Communist Party. He spoke about the importance of reviving China’s countryside and narrowing income disparities by encouraging the return of younger talent to rural areas.

“Recently, my colleagues and I have been studying and thinking. We made a firmer resolution to devote ourselves to education philanthropy,” Ma said in the video, which was first posted online by a local blog. “Working hard for rural revitalization and common prosperity is the responsibility for our generation of businessmen.”"

Alibaba's shares rose sharply, and perhaps this accounts for the uptick in SMT with all their Chinese holdings

Ah, the "re-education" obviously worked.

RVF

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#378793

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 20th, 2021, 9:38 am

scrumpyjack wrote:I see Bloomberg report that Jack Ma has reappeared, suitably towing the CCP line now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=mwlrlP7l

"Ma’s comments on Wednesday struck a much different tone, echoing themes espoused by the ruling Communist Party. He spoke about the importance of reviving China’s countryside and narrowing income disparities by encouraging the return of younger talent to rural areas.

“Recently, my colleagues and I have been studying and thinking. We made a firmer resolution to devote ourselves to education philanthropy,” Ma said in the video, which was first posted online by a local blog. “Working hard for rural revitalization and common prosperity is the responsibility for our generation of businessmen.”"

Alibaba's shares rose sharply, and perhaps this accounts for the uptick in SMT with all their Chinese holdings


Rural broadband and education.

If China wasn't already set to leave the West far behind, that'll clinch it for the next generation.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#378839

Postby wanderer101 » January 20th, 2021, 11:02 am

Hi all

SMT appear to have sold a significant proportion - around 40 percent - of their Tesla holding during December.

The November factsheet stated TSLA was 12.3 percent of NAV as at 30/11/20.
The December factsheet isn't out yet but the 31/12/20 figures are on the Baillie Gifford site here https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/in ... ent-trust/ and state that the holding has gone DOWN to 8.9 percent.

It's actually an even bigger change than that: the TSLA share price went up by 24.3 percent over the period, from USD 567.6 to 705.67 (figures from Google share price graph). SMT NAV went up by 4.3 percent over the period (figures from same page linked to above). So other things being equal, and with no trades, the TSLA holding would be around 14.65 percent of NAV. At 8.9 percent, it's just over 60 percent of that. Implying nearly 40 percent has been sold over the month (and more could have been sold during January, of course).

I'm glad to see this move by the managers as I've long had concerns about the size of the TSLA holding (like many others I consider the TSLA share price to be wildly overinflated) but it's a clear indication that they are not ideologically wedded to it. It's also a demonstration that the phrase in the factsheet description that they consider "how the market and the Managers’ views differ" on valuation applies to sells as well as buys.

(Interestingly the 31/12/20 figures for Edinburgh Worldwide show the TSLA holding rising from 6.1 percent to 6.5 percent of NAV, which suggests minimal to zero trading given the relative changes in the TSLA share price and total NAV).

Disclaimer: I hold SMT and wish I had bought it many years ago

cheers wand

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#378842

Postby joey » January 20th, 2021, 11:07 am

wanderer101 wrote:It's actually an even bigger change than that: the TSLA share price went up by 24.3 percent over the period, from USD 567.6 to 705.67 (figures from Google share price graph). SMT NAV went up by 4.3 percent over the period (figures from same page linked to above). So other things being equal, and with no trades, the TSLA holding would be around 14.65 percent of NAV. At 8.9 percent, it's just over 60 percent of that. Implying nearly 40 percent has been sold over the month (and more could have been sold during January, of course).

I'm glad to see this move by the managers as I've long had concerns about the size of the TSLA holding (like many others I consider the TSLA share price to be wildly overinflated) but it's a clear indication that they are not ideologically wedded to it. It's also a demonstration that the phrase in the factsheet description that they consider "how the market and the Managers’ views differ" on valuation applies to sells as well as buys.


I'm pretty sure I've seen James Anderson in an interview saying that they would sell down a position when it starts to constitute 10% or more of NAV. That would tally-ish with your analysis.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#381430

Postby Dod101 » January 28th, 2021, 8:53 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:I see Bloomberg report that Jack Ma has reappeared, suitably towing the CCP line now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=mwlrlP7l

"Ma’s comments on Wednesday struck a much different tone, echoing themes espoused by the ruling Communist Party. He spoke about the importance of reviving China’s countryside and narrowing income disparities by encouraging the return of younger talent to rural areas.

“Recently, my colleagues and I have been studying and thinking. We made a firmer resolution to devote ourselves to education philanthropy,” Ma said in the video, which was first posted online by a local blog. “Working hard for rural revitalization and common prosperity is the responsibility for our generation of businessmen.”"

Alibaba's shares rose sharply, and perhaps this accounts for the uptick in SMT with all their Chinese holdings


Rural broadband and education.

If China wasn't already set to leave the West far behind, that'll clinch it for the next generation.


There is a report in The Times this morning that the float of Ant can go ahead. The People's Bank of China governor has said Ant can proceed with its plans as long as it follows 'legal procedures'. That would help SMT again if it does.

Dod

Dod101
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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#381433

Postby Dod101 » January 28th, 2021, 9:01 am

wanderer101 wrote:Hi all

SMT appear to have sold a significant proportion - around 40 percent - of their Tesla holding during December


I am pretty sure that BG announced this sell off at the time. It applied not just to SMT but to other funds as well. I do not think they are ideologically wedded to Tesla but they are wedded to the fact that Tesla and others are in the vanguard of major changes change in the world economy and the way it works.

I am though very happy to leave it to the managers and would never try to second guess them. I have held Scottish Mortgage for at least 20 years and have lost count of where I would stand in a profit sense, but I have a very long time ago extracted the value of my original investment. It remains my biggest holding.

Dod

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#381436

Postby seagles » January 28th, 2021, 9:33 am

Although record sales at Tesla the share price falls. Are we going to see a "balance shift" in SMT?

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#381439

Postby nmdhqbc » January 28th, 2021, 9:49 am

Dod101 wrote:
wanderer101 wrote:Hi all

SMT appear to have sold a significant proportion - around 40 percent - of their Tesla holding during December


I am pretty sure that BG announced this sell off at the time. It applied not just to SMT but to other funds as well.


I think that was a sell off earlier in the year. One which they said was pretty much forced on them due to its large weighting. It was still 12% of the portfolio at that point. See article below on 06Nov. The latest sale is between 30Nov2020 and 31Dec2020. It was to a level well below the 12% they left it at when they last sold some. 8-9% i think. This makes me think that it's more of an investment decision this time rather than just a mechanical forced sell due to their rules on weighting of a single position.
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/s ... s-facebook

Tesla entered the S&P 500 in late December I think. Could it be that SMT and maybe other BG vehicles helped facilitate the S&P trackers get their position built on that one day or out of hours trading?

edit... and I agree. more than happy for them to make the decisions. fun to speculate though.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#381441

Postby scrumpyjack » January 28th, 2021, 10:07 am

Interesting to see the huge impact of small retail investors on the market. Look what happened at Gamestop and others.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f=mwlrlP7l

Their impact is easily swamping the Wall St whales and as a result 'momentum' is seemingly having a much greater impact on share prices than fundamentals.

Does the huge inflow of small private investors worldwide signal the beginning of the end? Perhaps this is the updated version of cabbies tipping shares as an indicator?

It seems to me SMT could go up or down substantially if this sort of mania affects their investments (though I doubt the companoes they invest in have been shorted much)

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#381447

Postby DavidM13 » January 28th, 2021, 10:21 am

scrumpyjack wrote:
It seems to me SMT could go up or down substantially if this sort of mania affects their investments (though I doubt the companoes they invest in have been shorted much)


I think Tesla is the most shorted stock in history and they own quite a bit of that.

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Re: Scottish Mortgage heading for where

#381454

Postby Bouleversee » January 28th, 2021, 10:37 am

Why do you suppose it is down 4.7% a.t.m? Buying opportunity?


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