The Lemon Fool

Bouleversee wrote:

XFool wrote:

Bouleversee wrote:I'm still losing a large percentage of the money I put into Woodford's Patient Capital Trust and I haven't forgotten I lost all of my investment in the Slater Walker Investment Trust run by Tom's father when it went bust.

Are you sure that was an investment trust?

With my declining memory, I am not sure of much these days. I think it was Slater Walker Growth (which could have been a fund though I thought it was an IT) that we were invested in. Does it matter?

"Does it matter?" I suspect it does. If you are risk averse then it would likely be best to stick with a collective investment instrument - such as an investment trust. ITs are regarded as pretty safe in the UK, generally they do not have that much of a record of going bust. If failing they are usually, merged, taken over or rolled over into another IT. Or gradually closed down and funds returned to investors. (Unfortunately that can even happen if they are successful)

There are exceptions: The most obvious example in the UK was the debacle over income shares of split capital ITs in the early part of the century, due to leverage and mutually investing in each other's shares. A pretty similar thing happened in America in the 1920s with ordinary ITs, which is why to this day ITs are not really a thing in the USA.

Many older TLF investors invest in ITs. You still choose your own investments, but you aren't taking a risk with a single company share!

Bouleversee wrote:I think we lost our stakes in Surinvest Performance and Invan as well.

I don't know anything about Surinvest Performance and Invan.

have now reached a new high (1421.5p) as the discount has just about unwound.

scrumpyjack wrote:have now reached a new high (1421.5p) as the discount has just about unwound.

Thanks for that. Interesting as well, given its China exposure.

Dod

I think Bouleversee may be confusing different Slaters

Mark Slater is the son of Jim
Mark Slater is a British fund manager, business writer and co-founder of Slater Investments.
He is the son of the financier Jim Slater.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Slater_(fund_manager)


but Tom Slater is something else - Scottish Mortgage IT manager
https://citywireselector.com/manager/tom-slater/d30628

(if this has already been said - I apologise)

Thanks for that info, Ralt. I definitely read somewhere that the SMT Slater was Jim Slater's son but you obviously know better. However, it doesn't really alter the point I was trying to make, ie. that they can get it wrong or suffer bad luck just the same as we do. The longer I live, the more I think luck plays a huge part and what seems a great investment one day can turn into a lousy one at any time due to unforeseen events.

Dod101 wrote:

scrumpyjack wrote:have now reached a new high (1421.5p) as the discount has just about unwound.

Thanks for that. Interesting as well, given its China exposure.

Dod

I don't know how much they reduced their China exposure and when. Their disclosure of portfolio content is always several weeks after the event.
Their holding in Moderna must have to some extent counterbalanced Chinese problems. I see that some analysts/managers now regard China as uninvestable and it would be interesting to hear BGs views on that issue.

scrumpyjack wrote:

Dod101 wrote:

scrumpyjack wrote:have now reached a new high (1421.5p) as the discount has just about unwound.

Thanks for that. Interesting as well, given its China exposure.

Dod

I don't know how much they reduced their China exposure and when. Their disclosure of portfolio content is always several weeks after the event.
Their holding in Moderna must have to some extent counterbalanced Chinese problems. I see that some analysts/managers now regard China as uninvestable and it would be interesting to hear BGs views on that issue.

BG China Growth is still under £4 but came back well today. Typical for BG of course, somewhat volatile. I suspect that they will say the investment case is still sound, but then they have quite a lot riding on it. I think by western analysis standards China may well be uninvestable but I will keep my holding in BG China Growth. It is not a great deal anyway.

Dod

Bouleversee wrote:However, it doesn't really alter the point I was trying to make, ie. that they can get it wrong or suffer bad luck just the same as we do. The longer I live, the more I think luck plays a huge part and what seems a great investment one day can turn into a lousy one at any time due to unforeseen events.

I too have been at it a while. My opinion is different. More along the lines of the golf pro (I Hate golf) who argued that the more he practiced the luckier he got!

This is something that I have noticed in myself. Sure bad luck happens. Indeed in my portfolio Iron ore producers have had a recent spell of "bad luck". However I had been thinking that their good luck couldn't continue and asking myself questions. OK, I didn't act. But that isn't my point. My point is that I was asking myself questions. SURE luck plays a huge part of returns. But I honestly do think that "luck" is simply probability that you can actively choose.

The age old diversification argument is about the ice cream seller and the umbrella seller. STRANGE how not one argument suggests reading the weather in the paper or watching the TV to think about weather!

As for SMT, recently (over the past 5 years) they seem to have both placed their "bets" and won. A couple of years ago they were HEAVILY into Tesla. I understand that Today they are heavy into biotech. They are a active investor after all. We should expect them to be fast on their feet.

Well, I watch the BBC weather forecast religiously (largely because I have a large garden) and I find it is frequently wrong. If it rains during the night after I have spent 2 hrs watering in the evening when I should have been monitoring my investments, I am not a happy bunny.

SMT have done better than my own picks since I started investing in them a few years ago and I am happy to let them get on with it. Rather regretting not adding a bit more while they were at a discount but too busy doing the garden and too late now.

Bouleversee wrote:and too late now.

The day it's too late is the day they carry you off. Which we hope is far from imminent.

Did you not buy into the dip back in the spring?

Ayee ah! as the Chinese would say. SMT is off about 3% today down to around £13.83. Why? You ask. I have no idea but is that a dip for anyone?

Dod

Dod101 wrote:Ayee ah! as the Chinese would say. SMT is off about 3% today down to around £13.83. Why? You ask. I have no idea but is that a dip for anyone?

Dod

Moderna (their largest holding) is down 12.65%, I guess because Merck have announced a Covid Pill
https://www.bloomberg.com/europe?sref=mwlrlP7l

But SMT are now back to a small premium to NAV and sold 600,000 shares at a premium on the market yesterday at 1435.5p

Markets generally have dipped, so SMT have held up relatively well I think.

Some interesting comments from a former BG manager on what has happened at BG.

https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/ne ... st-insider

Apparently they now have more Compliance staff than the total head count when he joined them and assets under management are now 358 billion.

I suppose all the big organisation staffing and procedures make a Woodford scenario very unlikely but one hopes it hasn't killed the factors that made them grow in the first place?

Interesting to note that SMT is now back to a steady premium to NAV so they are regularly issuing new shares and so it all becomes even bigger!

SMT has become a proxy for growth areas in the world economy. Discuss.

Yayyyyy. Price touched 1450 today.
I’m selling some, and buying again when they drop by 5% or more (as they have , intermittently) been doing recently)
What are others doing ?

unperplex wrote:What are others doing ?

I am waiting until they exceed 10% of my portfolio again. At which point I'll sell some.

unperplex wrote:Yayyyyy. Price touched 1450 today.
I’m selling some, and buying again when they drop by 5% or more (as they have , intermittently) been doing recently)
What are others doing ?

As usual I will do nothing. I don't need cash and can't think of a better home. It is interesting that they have now gone back up to a premium over net asset value, having fallen to a discount for a while when the Chinese clampdown caused jitters. Their largest holding (9%) now is Moderna and still a significant exposure to the Chinese giants. At present I have no reason to think they don't know what they are doing, so I'll stay put. (20% of portfolio)

I pay more attention to the actual share price than to premium or discount to nav, given that you can’t pay your (increased) fuel bills with a (theoretical) figure.

Urbandreamer wrote:

unperplex wrote:What are others doing ?

I am waiting until they exceed 10% of my portfolio again. At which point I'll sell some.

Selling your winners...?

unperplex wrote:I pay more attention to the actual share price than to premium or discount to nav, given that you can’t pay your (increased) fuel bills with a (theoretical) figure.

I suppose to adapt Buffet's old adage. the share price is a voting machine, whilst the net asset value is a weighing machine!