US Funds - US Election

[Shenstone]

Hi,
I hope this is the right place to ask this question.
I have a unit trust that is specifically for US stocks.
Does anyone know what the general feel is for how the market will react depending on who wins the US election?
Regards
Shenstone

[airbus330]

I think the general reported opinion is that there will be a period of turbulence whoever wins. If Biden wins, but the Senate remains Republican his room for maneuver is limited anyway. If you look at US economic growth since the war, the economy has grown more under the Democrats than the GOP. Taxes on companies have fallen under GOP. So, in the long run someone always wins. Picking the winners is another matter.
Personally, I have more faith in the USA to weather all the storms than Europe, particularly the UK, so will remain invested.

[Adamski]

From what I've read the market favours Republicans as more business friendly and tax cuts promised. However what they want us certainty from a clear outcome and is expected to fall if outcome is disputed by Trump and is argued out in the supreme court.

[nicster]

Reminded me of this interesting link that was on monevator a couple weeks back:-

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/1 ... portfolio/

Looks like Democrat Senate, Republican House, and Democrat President, came out ahead (just), based on S&P annual returns, 1933-2019.
Article points out - "politicians have far less control over the stock market than most people would like to believe"

[scotia]

"History shows stocks have averaged 9.5% annual returns during Republican presidential terms and 14.8% annually during Democratic presidential terms"
Above quote from Fisher investments (https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/20-20-look-at-2020-election)

It appears that the source of the information is from Global Financial Data Inc for the S&P500 from 1926 to 2019.
That's some range - I don't usually bother with investment statistics more than 5 years back. And even then we are warned that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Add that to the fact that the present Presidential incumbent is "unusual", and doesn't appear to have any policies going forward (apart from getting himself re-elected), and I think this is definitely a guessing game.

[airbus330]

There is an in depth article about this subject in the most recent Shares Magazine. Worth a look.