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HFEL. Buy or sell?

Closed-end funds and OEICs
Jam2Day
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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#632433

Postby Jam2Day » December 7th, 2023, 9:53 pm

absolutezero wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Yes, but they are also the reward for your risking capital. It's up to you whether you re-invest and call it "capital" or spend it and call it "income".

Or did you perhaps, mean that in this case HFEL appears to be paying us out of our own capital - i.e. the value of our capital is reducing to fund the dividend?

Arb.


All dividends are paid out of your own capital. They are in the share price, which is why it falls on XD day (plus or minus market noise on the day).
Selling 5% of your holding is the same as having 5% of it paid to you as a dividend (assuming held in a tax shelter).

With HFEL you have the double whammy of a falling share price due to market movement AND a falling share price on every XD day.

Dividend investing is a fallacy.
Might as well just sell x% of your shares as you need them rather than chasing yield.


Don't entirely agree with the 'fallacy' bit. Yes, dividends are paid out of capital reserves which in itself is nothing more than accumulated net profit. However, I see dividends as a policy of a bird in the hand. Value can evaporate and in some cases, rather quickly. The dividend can be utilised as a source of income or part of a cash fund for further strategic reinvestment which could be anywhere or anything, not necessarily the same fund, thereby offering flexibility, or of course, a bit of both. For me, the ideal scenario for an income fund is @ a 50/50 split on total return, 50% cash distribution and 50% capital growth. Best of both worlds.

PS - As a general footnote, let's not forget the use of derivatives/options etc as part of a fund manager's toolkit where market volatility can 'pay dividends' ;) . Often overlooked.

yieldhog
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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#632541

Postby yieldhog » December 8th, 2023, 11:21 am

I started this thread awhile back and the comments coming back have been very useful. Thank you all for your contributions.

To get back to my original question i.e. Should I buy or sell HFEL? I am still undecided and will hold for now but am inclined towards buying when funds become available.

The discussion about HFEL payouts being based on HFEL portfolio dividends received and/or return of capital is an interesting one that has been played out on many TLF threads. From my perspective I see nothing wrong with this and, indeed, it relates to many ITs. Some ITs, for example JGGI and other JP Morgan Funds have an annual set payout rate of, say, 4% and pay this out through a combination of growth and portfolio dividend income. There is a whole spectrum of ITs that at one end of the spectrum pay little or no dividend (ATT and PCT for example) while at the other end of the spectrum there are funds such as HFEL that choose to pay a high rate of dividend income based on a combination of return of capital and portfolio dividend received.

The key to this is to take a long view at whatever type of fund you are considering based on your own needs and risk tolerances. Fortunately, in the case of HFEL we have a fund with almost 100 years of history - it was established in 1930.
Near the start of this thread I mentioned some numbers relating to HFEL going back 30-years. The numbers related to the share price and are 142 (30yrs),178(20yrs),316(10yrs) and now 209. Straight away from these figures you can see that if anyone bought HFEL 10- years ago they would now be facing a hefty capital loss of over 30%. However, go back 20-yrs they should be seeing a capital gain of around 17%. Go back 30-yrs and the gain is nearly 50%. In all cases the investor would have benefitted from a very high dividend payout.
Another point to bear in mind when taking the long view is the dividend record. HFEL has increased the annual dividend every year since the crash in 2007 - 15-yrs of increases

Having said all of this about the past, what about the future? None of us know what will happen but we all have views. My view is that in the short term i.e. one or two years, there is the possibility that HFEL could cut the dividend, not by much but enough to have a negative impact on the price of the fund. Is this reason to sell now and hope to buy back at a lower price? For me it would be an opportunity to buy more at the lower level. Why? Because I take a longer view and it's always very difficult to judge the right time to buy back in. If the fundermentals are still right then I will stick with it and expect another long run of dividend increases. However, the psychological impact of having to cut the dividend after 15yrs of growth may prove too much for the HFEL to contenplate. Other factors contributing to my short term negative view are the fact that HFEL recently dropped to a level of discount below 5% for the first time in over 10yrs and the level of cover has dropped to 0.86 in the last year. A yield approaching 12% may not be sustainable in the short term.

All of this does of course need to be seen in the context of worldwide economic and political developments which would be straying from the subject of this thread. So I wll end this post there but welcome any further thoughts on HFEL.

Y

monabri
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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#632547

Postby monabri » December 8th, 2023, 11:43 am

30 Nov 2023
https://citywire.com/investment-trust-i ... h/a2431607

"Janus Henderson Asian equity specialist Mike Kerley is to retire after nearly four decades in fund management as Henderson Far East Income (HFEL) investment company announces a shift away from the high yield strategy he has overseen for nearly 17 years."

"News of Kerley’s departure comes amid a wider strategy review of Henderson Far East Income, which has struggled under its high yield remit and with its stock selection contribution to another difficult financial year." ( I think we HAVE noticed!)"

"board had ‘looked often and hard’ at what was causing the underperformance. A formal annual review of the strategy this year had required ‘a substantial amount of extra time outside of formal board meetings’, he said. Following the re-examination the chair re-iterated the company’s focus on providing a growing dividend but said the board and managers had ‘revised the way’ it captured dividends as the previous income focus had ‘too often led to diminished capital growth’. " ( really?)

"As part of the shake-up the company will reduce its focus on China and Hong Kong, which have been a significant part of the portfolio, making up 19.7% and 12.3% of the portfolio at the end of August." (Buy high, sell low when the horse has bolted)

The analysts want more detail on the strategy...

There's more detail in the Ciytwire article but one might have to register ( free).

I'm not exactly filled with confidence!

Dod101
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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#632552

Postby Dod101 » December 8th, 2023, 11:57 am

monabri wrote:30 Nov 2023
https://citywire.com/investment-trust-i ... h/a2431607

"Janus Henderson Asian equity specialist Mike Kerley is to retire after nearly four decades in fund management as Henderson Far East Income (HFEL) investment company announces a shift away from the high yield strategy he has overseen for nearly 17 years."

"News of Kerley’s departure comes amid a wider strategy review of Henderson Far East Income, which has struggled under its high yield remit and with its stock selection contribution to another difficult financial year." ( I think we HAVE noticed!)"

"board had ‘looked often and hard’ at what was causing the underperformance. A formal annual review of the strategy this year had required ‘a substantial amount of extra time outside of formal board meetings’, he said. Following the re-examination the chair re-iterated the company’s focus on providing a growing dividend but said the board and managers had ‘revised the way’ it captured dividends as the previous income focus had ‘too often led to diminished capital growth’. " ( really?)

"As part of the shake-up the company will reduce its focus on China and Hong Kong, which have been a significant part of the portfolio, making up 19.7% and 12.3% of the portfolio at the end of August." (Buy high, sell low when the horse has bolted)

The analysts want more detail on the strategy...

There's more detail in the Ciytwire article but one might have to register ( free).

I'm not exactly filled with confidence!



It has taken them a while to realise that they have a problem. As I said I do not think much of Janus Henderson as an investment house. Glad I have not held for a long while.

Dod

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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#632587

Postby monabri » December 8th, 2023, 2:32 pm

Dod101 wrote:
It has taken them a while to realise that they have a problem. As I said I do not think much of Janus Henderson as an investment house. Glad I have not held for a long while.

Dod


It's a while too long. No mention of fees being cut! I see a possible "merger" ahead with a dividend rebase.

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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#632595

Postby Dod101 » December 8th, 2023, 2:59 pm

monabri wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
It has taken them a while to realise that they have a problem. As I said I do not think much of Janus Henderson as an investment house. Glad I have not held for a long while.

Dod


It's a while too long. No mention of fees being cut! I see a possible "merger" ahead with a dividend rebase.


The Annual Report is on the website now and things do not seem quite as dramatic as you suggest. Cutting back on investments in China and Hong Kong, and a realisation it would seem that income at the expense of growth is not very sensible. But still an increase in the dividend with a current shortfall being made up from their distributable reserves. The senior manager is retiring but the number two is taking over, so it looks less like revolution than evolution.

Dod

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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#632639

Postby Arborbridge » December 8th, 2023, 5:41 pm

Dod101 wrote:
monabri wrote:
It's a while too long. No mention of fees being cut! I see a possible "merger" ahead with a dividend rebase.


The Annual Report is on the website now and things do not seem quite as dramatic as you suggest. Cutting back on investments in China and Hong Kong, and a realisation it would seem that income at the expense of growth is not very sensible. But still an increase in the dividend with a current shortfall being made up from their distributable reserves. The senior manager is retiring but the number two is taking over, so it looks less like revolution than evolution.

Dod


On the whole, it seems to be a favourable move. I'd be quite happy to see the Taiwan Semiconductor risk reducing.
I shan't be selling out and it looks as though there is nothing dramatic - as you say evolution, and hopefully in a sensible way.


Arb.

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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#633723

Postby seagles » December 13th, 2023, 1:51 pm

Have been following this thread with interest as HFEL is one of my IT's and have held it from 2015 when I started my SIPP. Purchase prices are, May 15 3.559, Sept 15 2.746 and finally Aug 19 3.594. Overall my capital is showing a 40.84% drop but if I take into account all the dividends received am up 7%. I have no intention buying anymore (for now) or selling. The regular "high" dividend return is much appreciated and allows me to "re-invest" and increase other IT's in my portfolio. Recently brought another "tranche" of MCT. Link to my portfolio from earlier this year.

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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#633739

Postby 88V8 » December 13th, 2023, 3:11 pm

seagles wrote:Have been following this thread with interest as HFEL is one of my IT's and have held it from 2015 when I started my SIPP. Overall my capital is showing a 40.84% drop but if I take into account all the dividends received am up 7%.

A good illustration of how one's tax situation may influence one's decisions.

V8

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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#633744

Postby seagles » December 13th, 2023, 4:00 pm

88V8 wrote:
seagles wrote:Have been following this thread with interest as HFEL is one of my IT's and have held it from 2015 when I started my SIPP. Overall my capital is showing a 40.84% drop but if I take into account all the dividends received am up 7%.

A good illustration of how one's tax situation may influence one's decisions.

V8

Not sure I see where that came from? Can you expand on that as I never thought of the "tax situation" when posting? Yes I have been "moving" ITs and Equities around to take full use of tax and to reduce future tax but HFEL has not been part of that.

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Re: HFEL. Buy or sell?

#633747

Postby 88V8 » December 13th, 2023, 4:07 pm

seagles wrote:
88V8 wrote:A good illustration of how one's tax situation may influence one's decisions.

Not sure I see where that came from? Can you expand on that as I never thought of the "tax situation" when posting? Yes I have been "moving" ITs and Equities around to take full use of tax and to reduce future tax but HFEL has not been part of that.

As it's in your SIPP, your divis are gross and net, so you can offset HFEL's capital loss and be slightly ahead.

If one's divis are mostly tax-exposed, as in my case, I am balancing my capital loss against taxed divis, which does not look nearly as rosy.

That may influence one's attitude to holding or not.

V8


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