The knives are coming out for poor old Woody.

[scotia]

I have always been astonished at the accolades awarded to fund managers who can beat the market marginally over a selected period of years when compared to a monkey sticking a pin in a printed list. I'm afraid a consulting engineer who could only marginally exceed the capabilities of a monkey would have a very brief career. And even a highly competent engineer would be unlikely ever to receive the accolades or the payments awarded to fund managers. I admired the honesty of Antony Bolton when he stated that there was a substantial element of luck in a fund manager's performance.
And even when a fund manager hits upon an apparently golden seam (Tobacco and Pharmaceuticals in the case of Woodford), they often fail to realise that a seam runs out, and in casting around for a new seam they prove to be no more able (or worse) than the monkey with a pin. I was astonished when Woodford invested in a nuclear fusion scam - I remember at the time suggesting that he might also fall for a perpetual motion scam! Did he not realise that such an area was way out of his comfort zone - and did he not think it necessary to seek advice from a competent Scientist or Engineer?
I was never a fan of Woodford while he was at Invesco Perpetual, since I disliked the idea of supporting the Tobacco industry. Also, his performance over the final five years at Invesco was anything but impressive. Possibly he thought that dumping his old funds and starting afresh would work wonders. It appears that it has not.
Could I suggest that the title of this board is somewhat inaccurate - I'm reasonably sure he isn't poor!

[toofast2live]

"poor" "Woodford"

It almost defines oxymoron

[OhNoNotimAgain]

Yet another active manager humbled by passive funds.

[XFool]

Fooled by randomness?

[scotia]

Woody Equity Income v FTSE All Share. Since launch, Woody has beaten the FTSE All Share index

Agreed - but looking at it in more detail, his first year was successful - hardly surprising since he has left all his duds behind him. Then its downhill, with the last year being very poor. On comparing him with a FTSE 250 Index - OK for the first two years, but nowhere near the 250 Index in the past year.
But as I mentioned in my original post, modest outperformance over a selected period has very little significance compared to chance. Back in November 2008, I set up a test portfolio. One of its components was Woodford's Invesco Perpetual High Income (which he left a few years ago) Some statistics (November 2008 to present):-
Invesco Perpetual High Income +135.8%
HSBC FTSE All Share +154.0%
HSBC FTSE 250 Index +288.5%
So I'll reiterate my previous statement - why do we heap accolades on such a "star" performance.

[nmdhqbc]

Rather confused as to why performing in certain years is more valued than performing in other years. Long term overall performance that matters no? Scroll down a touch for the chart it swaps from fund to fund more accurately than using Invesco pre and post woodford...

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discount ... e/research

[OhNoNotimAgain]

Woody Equity Income v FTSE All Share. Since launch, Woody has beaten the FTSE All Share index (sorry, I don't know Woody's actual benchmark, but this will do) by about 5% since the release of his fund. Only over three years, but it emphasises the rubbish posted above about trackers beating him. Page and data courtesy of HL. Sorry, the link doesn't seem to remember that I overlaid the FTSE All Share on top of Woody's fund.
http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/c/cf-woodford-equity-income-accumulation/charts

He did by investing outside the index.

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discount ... d-analysis

People forget that AIM stocks are not in the FTA.

[jackdaww]

for those who dont rate woodford , how do you rate warren buffet , who also makes mistakes (eg tesco) ?

[ermintrade]

I'll make two comments about Woodford and other so-called star managers:

1/ They have sufficient clout and expertise to not just look under the bonnet of the companies they invest in, but to take the engine to bits and look at every component. But it looks as though they just don't bother.
2/ When you take long-term-buy-and-hold as almost a religion, it is not surprising that it sometimes goes horribly wrong.

Regards
ermintrade

[GJHarney]

for those who dont rate woodford , how do you rate warren buffet , who also makes mistakes (eg tesco) ?

You could argue both trade on past glories rather than current abilities. Buffet has made some dire decisions in recent years (Tesco alone should be a warning that he may have lost what nous he once had) while it is very clear that Woody has not paid nearly enough attention to a number of companies he has invested in recently and who have come back to bite him on his backside. No one stays ahead for ever in any job, it's why even football managers who have a fantastic record of achievement get sacked when things are no longer working, or prime ministers who win historic election victories eventually get the push..

[funduffer]

Woody Equity Income v FTSE All Share. Since launch, Woody has beaten the FTSE All Share index (sorry, I don't know Woody's actual benchmark, but this will do) by about 5% since the release of his fund. Only over three years, but it emphasises the rubbish posted above about trackers beating him. Page and data courtesy of HL. Sorry, the link doesn't seem to remember that I overlaid the FTSE All Share on top of Woody's fund.
http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/c/cf-woodford-equity-income-accumulation/charts

You seem to be comparing an accumulation fund with the FTSE AS index, whereas you should be comparing it to a Total Return index. HL doesn’t seem to enable you to do this.

However, given how close the comparison you state is, I would expect the FTSE AS TR index to have produced better results over 3 years since Woody’s fund started.

FD(holds Woody’s income fund!)

[nmdhqbc]

Woody Equity Income v FTSE All Share. Since launch, Woody has beaten the FTSE All Share index (sorry, I don't know Woody's actual benchmark, but this will do) by about 5% since the release of his fund. Only over three years, but it emphasises the rubbish posted above about trackers beating him. Page and data courtesy of HL. Sorry, the link doesn't seem to remember that I overlaid the FTSE All Share on top of Woody's fund.
http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/c/cf-woodford-equity-income-accumulation/charts

You seem to be comparing an accumulation fund with the FTSE AS index, whereas you should be comparing it to a Total Return index. HL doesn’t seem to enable you to do this.

However, given how close the comparison you state is, I would expect the FTSE AS TR index to have produced better results over 3 years since Woody’s fund started.

FD(holds Woody’s income fund!)

The text does not specify what's being shown (doesn't say inc or acc) but looking at the numbers I think it is comparing like with like. I just had a look at the FTSE Allshare index chart on google finance and in Jun 14 it was approx 3600 compared to 4133 today. That's about a 15% increase. The HL comparison show about a 27% increase so I think it must be the total return.

[swill453]

The text does not specify what's being shown (doesn't say inc or acc) but looking at the numbers I think it is comparing like with like. I just had a look at the FTSE Allshare index chart on google finance and in Jun 14 it was approx 3600 compared to 4133 today. That's about a 15% increase. The HL comparison show about a 27% increase so I think it must be the total return.

In the same period the All Share Total Return has gone from about 5500 to 7059, just over 28% increase (from my records, from FT).

Scott.

[toofast2live]

Woody Equity Income v FTSE All Share. Since launch, Woody has beaten the FTSE All Share index (sorry, I don't know Woody's actual benchmark, but this will do) by about 5% since the release of his fund. Only over three years, but it emphasises the rubbish posted above about trackers beating him. Page and data courtesy of HL. Sorry, the link doesn't seem to remember that I overlaid the FTSE All Share on top of Woody's fund.
http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/c/cf-woodford-equity-income-accumulation/charts

He did by investing outside the index.

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discount ... d-analysis

People forget that AIM stocks are not in the FTA.

I don't give a flying fig where he invests as long as he beats the index - which is my etf alternative, and delivers a highish and growing income.

[nmdhqbc]

The text does not specify what's being shown (doesn't say inc or acc) but looking at the numbers I think it is comparing like with like. I just had a look at the FTSE Allshare index chart on google finance and in Jun 14 it was approx 3600 compared to 4133 today. That's about a 15% increase. The HL comparison show about a 27% increase so I think it must be the total return.

In the same period the All Share Total Return has gone from about 5500 to 7059, just over 28% increase (from my records, from FT).

Scott.

Cool. My 27% was just my approximation from looking at the chart to that's within a reasonable margin of error. I think it's fair to say HL is using total return in that comparison.

[funduffer]

The text does not specify what's being shown (doesn't say inc or acc) but looking at the numbers I think it is comparing like with like. I just had a look at the FTSE Allshare index chart on google finance and in Jun 14 it was approx 3600 compared to 4133 today. That's about a 15% increase. The HL comparison show about a 27% increase so I think it must be the total return.

You're right it is total return, though it is a bit confusing as it doesn't say which index it is.

That's a relief - keep the faith in Woody - recent performance is just a blip!

FD (have invested with Woody for 15 years and have been well rewarded!)

[Arborbridge]

Why does Woody attract so many slings and arrows?

Because he is successful, both as a manager and as a person, and the British just hate people who are good at something. Bring 'em down as soon as the get above our own common herd: that's where we find our joy in life.
Schadenfreude Rules! Without doubt he has a very good record over decades -no one can deny that. The only question is whether his judgement calls will come out right once more, and for that we need to wait.

Some of the posts on here are highly amusing, but my position is: if he's is doing a reasonable job compared with my alternatives, then he stays. If not he goes. At present, there's nothing to make me eject him from my basket of funds, so he stays. For my money, it is far too early to judge. Resisting "churn" - that's what we all approve of, and that's what I do.

Do not overreact to relatively short term events in any fund. Take a sober look at XIRR over years and then decide.

Arb.

[jackdaww]

i hold these woodford shares , most have done well , some very well , some i held before he did.

lancashire
legal and general
phoenix
aviva
glaxo
astra
imps
bats
hostelworld
card factory
BCA
breedon
stobart
vodafone
watkin jones
amlin (taken over)
catlin ?? (taken over).

duds were NEXT and provident .

for me thats a good performance.

[OhNoNotimAgain]

Why does Woody attract so many slings and arrows?

Because he is successful, both as a manager and as a person, and the British just hate people who are good at something. Bring 'em down as soon as the get above our own common herd: that's where we find our joy in life.
Schadenfreude Rules! Without doubt he has a very good record over decades -no one can deny that. The only question is whether his judgement calls will come out right once more, and for that we need to wait.

Some of the posts on here are highly amusing, but my position is: if he's is doing a reasonable job compared with my alternatives, then he stays. If not he goes. At present, there's nothing to make me eject him from my basket of funds, so he stays. For my money, it is far too early to judge. Resisting "churn" - that's what we all approve of, and that's what I do.

Do not overreact to relatively short term events in any fund. Take a sober look at XIRR over years and then decide.

Arb.

The simple answer to that is no.

The XIRR is irrellevant if alternative cheaper funds have delivered better income, lower volatility and higher total return.

Totally agree about your first paragraph, but the question is whether his judgement is more powerful than compound interest. History says no.

[OZYU]

Why does Woody attract so many slings and arrows?

Because he is successful, both as a manager and as a person, and the British just hate people who are good at something. Bring 'em down as soon as the get above our own common herd: that's where we find our joy in life.
Schadenfreude Rules! Without doubt he has a very good record over decades -no one can deny that. The only question is whether his judgement calls will come out right once more, and for that we need to wait.

Some of the posts on here are highly amusing, but my position is: if he's is doing a reasonable job compared with my alternatives, then he stays. If not he goes. At present, there's nothing to make me eject him from my basket of funds, so he stays. For my money, it is far too early to judge. Resisting "churn" - that's what we all approve of, and that's what I do.

Do not overreact to relatively short term events in any fund. Take a sober look at XIRR over years and then decide.

Arb.

The simple answer to that is no.

The XIRR is irrellevant if alternative cheaper funds have delivered better income, lower volatility and higher total return.

Totally agree about your first paragraph, but the question is whether his judgement is more powerful than compound interest. History says no.

Moderator Message:
removed text as personal attack. Raptor.

My opinion is that is WAY WAY too early to form any judgement on what WOODY is producing since going solo on ANY of his three efforts.

But what I DO know is that my wife replaced her car(she runs a merc) every four years for donkeys with what he produced in the past, now you certainly have not done that for your investors, so put a sock in it until you do! A fund manager who has not even managed to bring his share price back to issue level, much worse if you take RPI into account, over what is now quite a few years should keep a low profile, Rob, and is NOT fir to discuss WOODY imho.

An exasperated, come on moderator have a ball,

Moderator Message:
anymore remarks like this and I will pass on to administrators for a follow-up. Raptor.

Ozyu