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Murray International - dog or not?
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
I return to this subject as the OP. Shares in Murray International are now down 12% in the past year (1126p from 1277p). This is shockingly bad.
Why has this happened? There is no acknowledgement of this trend in the most recent monthly fact sheet: http://www.aberdeen-asset.co/static_fil ... 1535450344.
The Morningstar daily fact sheet notes an 8.55% drop in the past year but that benefits from dividends reinvested: http://www.funddata.com/abpdf/301.pdf#_ ... 1535450344
Meanwhile Kepler Trust Intelligence says https://www.youinvest.co.uk/markets/inv ... ernational: "In the ten years to the start of 2013 the trust was ahead of its benchmark and the sector by a long margin, but the last five years have destroyed that lead entirely."
It then adds: " Bruce remains firmly convinced that the pain is worthwhile. He is ardent in his criticism of monetary easing. In the most recent annual report, he wrote that while central bankers were "cocooned in the economic theory of how the world should work, scant attention was paid to how it actually does". He goes on to mention that he is extremely cautious in this current environment because the unorthodox monetary policies determined by central banks have been the drivers of relentlessly rising financial markets. Now that these actions have been exhausted, we are left in a "festering cauldron into which feuding politics and narrow-minded protectionism are becoming increasingly prevalent in the new world disorder".
What do you think? Dog or not?
Why has this happened? There is no acknowledgement of this trend in the most recent monthly fact sheet: http://www.aberdeen-asset.co/static_fil ... 1535450344.
The Morningstar daily fact sheet notes an 8.55% drop in the past year but that benefits from dividends reinvested: http://www.funddata.com/abpdf/301.pdf#_ ... 1535450344
Meanwhile Kepler Trust Intelligence says https://www.youinvest.co.uk/markets/inv ... ernational: "In the ten years to the start of 2013 the trust was ahead of its benchmark and the sector by a long margin, but the last five years have destroyed that lead entirely."
It then adds: " Bruce remains firmly convinced that the pain is worthwhile. He is ardent in his criticism of monetary easing. In the most recent annual report, he wrote that while central bankers were "cocooned in the economic theory of how the world should work, scant attention was paid to how it actually does". He goes on to mention that he is extremely cautious in this current environment because the unorthodox monetary policies determined by central banks have been the drivers of relentlessly rising financial markets. Now that these actions have been exhausted, we are left in a "festering cauldron into which feuding politics and narrow-minded protectionism are becoming increasingly prevalent in the new world disorder".
What do you think? Dog or not?
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
Having bought at 1289p in November last year it's certainly been a dog for me so far.
In contrast Foreign and Colonial has gained 12% since I bought it in March this year. Only yields 1.65 compared to 4.1% for Murray but I know which one I wish I'd bought more of
What the future may bring as regards Murray is another matter, and not something I feel expert enough to suggest. I'll give it another year and see if there's any improvement before taking any action. Compared to some of my shares (Petrofac, Marstons, Greene King, Immarsat) it's doing fairly well
In contrast Foreign and Colonial has gained 12% since I bought it in March this year. Only yields 1.65 compared to 4.1% for Murray but I know which one I wish I'd bought more of
What the future may bring as regards Murray is another matter, and not something I feel expert enough to suggest. I'll give it another year and see if there's any improvement before taking any action. Compared to some of my shares (Petrofac, Marstons, Greene King, Immarsat) it's doing fairly well
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
SalvorHardin wrote:richfool wrote:I've just been re-reading a couple of older threads which included this one about MYI and its lack of capital growth, compared to many of its peers. Noting that it holds a proportion of bonds and is managed by Bruce Stout, I tend to think that it has an element of capital preservation about it (as well as an above average dividend yield). Would fellow fools concur re the capital preservation tendencies?
Yes. This article from 2016 with Bruce Stout (the manager) sums up his strategy.
"When I talk to our shareholders and ask what they do with their dividend, they say it goes out of their bank account and pays their gas bill. That shows me that the real dividend is very important.”
If I tell shareholders the market’s down 15 per cent but guess what we’re only down 10, that’s no use to them, they’ve still lost 10 per cent of their money.”
http://www.trustnet.com/news/706304/bru ... and-harder
Roughly 75% of my portfolio is in operating companies, with the rest in investment trusts of which Murray International is one of the larger holdings. Now whilst I am a more optimistic investor than Mr. Stout, I prefer to keep some money with him just in case I am seriously wrong with the rest of my portfolio (as happened in 2008 when I was down almost 50%).
My Murray International dividends just about pay for the gas, electricity and water bills.
Avantgarde, I think these earlier posts (above) from this thread sum up the situation well. Bruce has strong views on the markets and the affects of QE etc., and (previously) positioned himself in a more defensive mode, taking positions in Latin America and EM's, as well as fixed interest. That positioning has lead to him under-performing markets (from a capital growth perspective), though MYI does deliver an above average dividend yield.
I think it then becomes a case of do you want to hold the trust for its dividend and defensive stance and trust that the capital performance will come good again, and/or that it may shine again when the next correction or bear market arises? That is pretty much the stance/view I am taking.
Note that FRCL is in the global growth sector and not global growth & income.
MYI is my second largest holding. I also hold JPGI in that global G&I sector.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
A couple of observations on MYI:
a) In recent times, it has gone from a premium to a small discount;
b) 16% is invested in fixed interest.
I'm getting interested now it's at a discount and yielding 4.5%.
a) In recent times, it has gone from a premium to a small discount;
b) 16% is invested in fixed interest.
I'm getting interested now it's at a discount and yielding 4.5%.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
richfool wrote:
I think these earlier posts (above) from this thread sum up the situation well. Bruce has strong views on the markets and the affects of QE etc., and (previously) positioned himself in a more defensive mode, taking positions in Latin America and EM's, as well as fixed interest. That positioning has lead to him under-performing markets (from a capital growth perspective), though MYI does deliver an above average dividend yield.
I think it then becomes a case of do you want to hold the trust for its dividend and defensive stance and trust that the capital performance will come good again, and/or that it may shine again when the next correction or bear market arises? That is pretty much the stance/view I am taking.
One of my larger holdings which I have topped up three times since 2014 and am in capital profit despite recent underperformance. I'm happy to hold for the reasons you mention, I appreciate Bruce Stout's pessimism and am glad to have it in my portfolio.
RC
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
I started a position today , (3% discount to NAV.)
I have ridden the passive tracker train for the last few years with major gains over the last 2 ½ years and there comes a point where I feel the out of favour approaches may make a comeback and Murray International has joined recent purchases of Law Debenture and Edinburgh INV Trust.
Since 2016 almost 100% return on Vanguard Global Value and 75% on S&P500 trackers can not go at the same rate and scaling back these holdings to reliable managers with a reasonable yield , value approach and at a discount is a prudent move.
I have ridden the passive tracker train for the last few years with major gains over the last 2 ½ years and there comes a point where I feel the out of favour approaches may make a comeback and Murray International has joined recent purchases of Law Debenture and Edinburgh INV Trust.
Since 2016 almost 100% return on Vanguard Global Value and 75% on S&P500 trackers can not go at the same rate and scaling back these holdings to reliable managers with a reasonable yield , value approach and at a discount is a prudent move.
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
Hariseldon58 wrote:I started a position today , (3% discount to NAV.)
I have ridden the passive tracker train for the last few years with major gains over the last 2 ½ years and there comes a point where I feel the out of favour approaches may make a comeback and Murray International has joined recent purchases of Law Debenture and Edinburgh INV Trust.
Since 2016 almost 100% return on Vanguard Global Value and 75% on S&P500 trackers can not go at the same rate and scaling back these holdings to reliable managers with a reasonable yield , value approach and at a discount is a prudent move.
Ok, under what sort of conditions might shares in Murray International start to rise, rather than fall, and do better than a comparative index in which you can actually invest, such as the FTSE-All World?
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
@Avantegarde
I feel you have strong views that Murray International will underperform a World Index and you may well be right.
My feeling is that I have followed a World passive approach profitably for some years and there comes a time when it becomes advisable to diversify from a single approach and add some contrarian investments ( plus some treasuries to have a reserve)
I feel you have strong views that Murray International will underperform a World Index and you may well be right.
My feeling is that I have followed a World passive approach profitably for some years and there comes a time when it becomes advisable to diversify from a single approach and add some contrarian investments ( plus some treasuries to have a reserve)
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
@Avantegarde
My last post reads rather passive aggressive! Unintended , my apologies.
The conditions where MYI may shine and outperform the All World Index would be a major fall in markets. MYI has done very well in troubled times and the yield would be reasssuring.
I have gone through two markets with falls of around 50% in the first I was accumulating and in the second I had just retired early, pretty much 100% in equities and living off the portfolio largely and chunky dividends are good when you see such a major fall...
I am not predicting doom and gloom but I am taking some money off the table ( I’m fixing my equity portfolio at it’s April 2018 monetary level and buying bonds when it exceeds that level, this has given me £170k as a reserve so far) I have added MYI and reopened a position in Edinburgh INV Trust and added to Law Debenture and having sold down Vanguard Global Value in April ( I added to S&P400 and 600 these have risen around 20% when I sold them recently) I switched back to Vanguard Global value and reopened a position in Finsbury Growth and income.
The problem with holding the All World Tracker type portfolio for me would be that I would have a very large holding in the S&P500 and I find that an excessive concentration, hence some diversity for that US exposure,eg Berkshire Hathaway
It’s the nature of things that some parts of a portfolio are doing well, some so so and others doing badly and if MYI is part of a diversified portfolio then it’s time will come too.
If one was investing on a long term basis then the All World tracker is pretty good but my circumstances are that I am retired and have no pensions apart from the state pension in a few years and whilst I could live on the yield of a world tracker at 1.88% (it’s s pretty low on an historic basis ) and thus when markets have had such a great run why not diversify into some assets that offer alternate strategies and additional yield ?
My last post reads rather passive aggressive! Unintended , my apologies.
The conditions where MYI may shine and outperform the All World Index would be a major fall in markets. MYI has done very well in troubled times and the yield would be reasssuring.
I have gone through two markets with falls of around 50% in the first I was accumulating and in the second I had just retired early, pretty much 100% in equities and living off the portfolio largely and chunky dividends are good when you see such a major fall...
I am not predicting doom and gloom but I am taking some money off the table ( I’m fixing my equity portfolio at it’s April 2018 monetary level and buying bonds when it exceeds that level, this has given me £170k as a reserve so far) I have added MYI and reopened a position in Edinburgh INV Trust and added to Law Debenture and having sold down Vanguard Global Value in April ( I added to S&P400 and 600 these have risen around 20% when I sold them recently) I switched back to Vanguard Global value and reopened a position in Finsbury Growth and income.
The problem with holding the All World Tracker type portfolio for me would be that I would have a very large holding in the S&P500 and I find that an excessive concentration, hence some diversity for that US exposure,eg Berkshire Hathaway
It’s the nature of things that some parts of a portfolio are doing well, some so so and others doing badly and if MYI is part of a diversified portfolio then it’s time will come too.
If one was investing on a long term basis then the All World tracker is pretty good but my circumstances are that I am retired and have no pensions apart from the state pension in a few years and whilst I could live on the yield of a world tracker at 1.88% (it’s s pretty low on an historic basis ) and thus when markets have had such a great run why not diversify into some assets that offer alternate strategies and additional yield ?
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- 2 Lemon pips
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
In know exactly where Hariseldon58 is coming from. I’ve been an equity investor for more than 30 years and, by what I can tell, he’s not that too far behind me. When one has been in the markets for these lengths of time then arguably the most important emotion a private investor has to learn to deal with is when markets turn nasty, which they tend to do from time-to-time. And, there will be occasions over let’s say the course of an investing lifetime when markets will become extremely nasty and unforgiving with no place to hide. It is at such times investors will either cash in and take flight or will themselves to sit-and-suffer. For those of us willing to stick it out then a regular flow of dividends is the equivalent of taking painkillers. It won’t make the pain of falling share prices go away, but if will make the discomfort bearable while it lasts.
As Hariseldon58 writes, with only a state pension to fall back on, if he feels he wants the extra protection that dividends provide in times of volatility then the S&P 500 is not really the place to be. In words of Cheerful Charlie Munger, ‘While I’ve nothing against being in the right place at the right time, I’d rather investors make the productive effort not to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.’
As Hariseldon58 writes, with only a state pension to fall back on, if he feels he wants the extra protection that dividends provide in times of volatility then the S&P 500 is not really the place to be. In words of Cheerful Charlie Munger, ‘While I’ve nothing against being in the right place at the right time, I’d rather investors make the productive effort not to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.’
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
I get so horny when share prices drop. I do love a bargain. I remember feeding wads of cash into the market in 2009, 2010 and 2011 in particular. MYi's generous dividend, reinvested, will come in handy. Bruce knows people rely on it to pay the gas bill.
Best wishes
Mark.
Best wishes
Mark.
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- Lemon Half
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
ADrunkenMarcus wrote:
I get so horny when share prices drop.
Would it be fair to say then, given the title of this thread, that you see it as a prime opportunity to go 'dogging'?
I'll get my coat.....
Cheers,
Itsallaguess
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
ADrunkenMarcus wrote:I get so horny when share prices drop. I do love a bargain. I remember feeding wads of cash into the market in 2009, 2010 and 2011 in particular. MYi's generous dividend, reinvested, will come in handy. Bruce knows people rely on it to pay the gas bill.
Best wishes
Mark.
Too much information... I suppose you might be thinking of investigation in the Wood Group?( Maybe not!).
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- The full Lemon
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
Relax and enjoy the dividend. If you think any share will go up for ever find something else to do! I bought back into Murray International in September 2016 at £9.075. I have no complaints.
Dod
Dod
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
I made a mistake in my original post. Apologies. Most of my holding in Murray International was bought in June 2016 and since then the rise in its share price, recent falls not withstanding, has been 23%. I shall continue to hold this share until next April and review it at the start of the new financial year. That is when I conduct most of my portfolio reshuffling, usually as part of moving shares from my ordinary share account to my S&S ISA.
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
Itsallaguess wrote:ADrunkenMarcus wrote:I get so horny when share prices drop.
Would it be fair to say then, given the title of this thread, that you see it as a prime opportunity to go 'dogging'?
I'll likely top up the biggest fallers!
Best wishes
Mark.
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- Lemon Slice
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
Contrary to what I said above, I decided not to wait. The MI shares are on a steady downward slide so I sold my entire holding at the end of September.
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
Whilst I have pondered the situation (and thought of selling) because of the recent past under-performance, I instead decided to top up because of the Manager's exposure to Emerging Markets and his defensive thinking/stance, along with the healthy dividend (currently c 4.55%) which continues to roll in every quarter. I think it will come into its own when the market correction comes.
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
richfool wrote:Whilst I have pondered the situation (and thought of selling) because of the recent past under-performance, I instead decided to top up because of the Manager's exposure to Emerging Markets and his defensive thinking/stance, along with the healthy dividend (currently c 4.55%) which continues to roll in every quarter. I think it will come into its own when the market correction comes.
That 4.5% dividend 50p last year has inched up 4% compound over the past 5 years and nearly 9% over 10 years and was growing double figures annually through the GFC between 2007 and 2012.
As for correlation there's a few well know names in the top 10
- ASUR 4.83%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co 4.73%
Quimica Y Minera 3.52%
Taiwan Mobile Co.,Ltd 3.32%
British American Tobacco 3.22%
Total SA 2.92%
Daito Bank Ltd 2.82%
CME Group, Inc. A 2.62%
Philip Morris International, Inc. 2.62%
Verizon Communications Inc 2.52%
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- Lemon Quarter
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Re: Murray International - dog or not?
It holds a low percentage (15%) in US stocks, which wouldn't have helped its performance, but may help when a correction comes. It also has fixed interest holdings (c 15%).
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