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Not the UK or US

Index tracking funds and ETFs
uryjm
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Not the UK or US

#179121

Postby uryjm » November 9th, 2018, 9:27 am

I’m going to have a 20k lump sum to invest in my ISA this month, and am wondering where to split it? I like index tracking funds, but I don’t want too much going into the US market, either into the overall market or into a fund (like a Global Dividend) where you end up in a lot of US companies anyway. Same for UK – I feel I’ve enough already in both those markets.
I was thinking of splitting the sum into 4 buckets of 5k each. I’d put 5k into something defensive, like gold, but am wondering about some good alternatives for the rest, given my views on the US and UK? Instead of looking at countries, I was more thinking about looking at sectors such as health or agriculture? My preference is to be more into passive trackers and to keep my costs down. Any suggestions gratefully received.

dspp
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179124

Postby dspp » November 9th, 2018, 9:35 am

Two non-UK and non-USA passive trackers I hold are VERX and VAPX. Clearly they are geographic rather than sectoral but perhaps they are worth considering.

regards, dspp

monabri
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179292

Postby monabri » November 9th, 2018, 8:47 pm

This might be useful ( and try changing the "product type")

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/e ... &view=list


And there is the AIC website.

https://www.theaic.co.uk

spiderbill
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179297

Postby spiderbill » November 9th, 2018, 9:12 pm

dspp wrote:Two non-UK and non-USA passive trackers I hold are VERX and VAPX. Clearly they are geographic rather than sectoral but perhaps they are worth considering.


I bought some VERX in August last year but it's been disappointing - seldom in positive territory since then. Currently about 9% down on capital and there's not really much dividend to offset that. In contrast VWRL, which was bought around the same time, is around 4% up (and of course was much higher before the current correction).

Of course if it were an individual share that might be a buying signal for some, but for a tracker I'm not so sure. At the time the pundits were forecasting a revival in European markets but I'm not sure what they're saying now.

cheers
Spiderbill

monabri
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179527

Postby monabri » November 11th, 2018, 6:33 pm

spiderbill wrote:
dspp wrote:Two non-UK and non-USA passive trackers I hold are VERX and VAPX. Clearly they are geographic rather than sectoral but perhaps they are worth considering.


I bought some VERX in August last year but it's been disappointing - seldom in positive territory since then. Currently about 9% down on capital and there's not really much dividend to offset that. In contrast VWRL, which was bought around the same time, is around 4% up (and of course was much higher before the current correction).

Of course if it were an individual share that might be a buying signal for some, but for a tracker I'm not so sure. At the time the pundits were forecasting a revival in European markets but I'm not sure what they're saying now.

cheers
Spiderbill



Have a shufty at this..

https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/ ... in-charts/

in particular, the chart titled "WHICH MARKETS ARE CURRENTLY UNDERVALUED?" (sorry about the caps - it's cut&paste).

Noting where the US is (and India....).

bluedonkey
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179694

Postby bluedonkey » November 12th, 2018, 12:47 pm

I've used VAPX (Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex-Japan) in order to diversify away from a UK heavy portfolio. It mainly invests in South Korea, Hong Kong and Australia.

spiderbill
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179776

Postby spiderbill » November 12th, 2018, 5:17 pm

monabri wrote:Have a shufty at this..

https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/ ... in-charts/

in particular, the chart titled "WHICH MARKETS ARE CURRENTLY UNDERVALUED?" (sorry about the caps - it's cut&paste).

Noting where the US is (and India....).


That is indeed food for thought! Thanks Monabri.

Quite surprised at where South Korea are on that chart.

cheers
Spiderbill

monabri
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179779

Postby monabri » November 12th, 2018, 5:28 pm

I'd also have a look at the Pension Craft videos ( you tube) and their website. They were really informative.

Of course the star capital charts were probably compiled before Mr Trump declared global economic war.!

spiderbill
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179785

Postby spiderbill » November 12th, 2018, 5:46 pm

monabri wrote:Have a shufty at this..

https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/ ... in-charts/

in particular, the chart titled "WHICH MARKETS ARE CURRENTLY UNDERVALUED?" (sorry about the caps - it's cut&paste).

Noting where the US is (and India....).


That is indeed food for thought! Thanks Monabri.

Quite surprised at where South Korea are on that chart.

cheers
Spiderbill

colin
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179947

Postby colin » November 13th, 2018, 11:28 am

According to Vanguard the most successful valuation method yet devised (cyclically adjusted PE) has only been shown to predict 40% of subsequent stock market returns, so valuations are not a useful measure on which to base investment decisions.

argoal
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Re: Not the UK or US

#179972

Postby argoal » November 13th, 2018, 12:58 pm

colin wrote:According to Vanguard the most successful valuation method yet devised (cyclically adjusted PE) has only been shown to predict 40% of subsequent stock market returns, so valuations are not a useful measure on which to base investment decisions.


You are right Colin. A 40% edge is not worth bothering with. ;)

colin
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Re: Not the UK or US

#180215

Postby colin » November 14th, 2018, 12:14 pm

You are right Colin. A 40% edge is not worth bothering with.

Just to be clear, back testing of historical data has shown that employing commonly used valuation measures to predict the future course of stock market returns provides no 'edge' whatsoever. In the overwhelming majority of cases subsequent returns have no correlation to previously predicted returns.
We are on our own.


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