Vanguard's Guesses

[GeoffF100]

Vanguard, What to expect from the economy and markets in 2024":

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/arti ... ts-in-2024

Actually, the interesting guesstimates are for the next decade. Bonds good. US equities not great. UK equities a little better. Emerging markets better. Non-US developed markets best of all. 60/40 portfolio looking good. Little better than a wild guess of course. I have never known Vanguard to say "it will be rotten".

[Hariseldon58]

Interesting to see what expectations were in 2014 from Vanguard

https://static.vgcontent.info/crp/intl/auw/docs/resources/Vanguard-economic-investment-outlook-2014.pdf?20150223%7C091500

Focussed on Australia but references Global markets.

[vand]

Vanguard, What to expect from the economy and markets in 2024":

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/arti ... ts-in-2024

Actually, the interesting guesstimates are for the next decade. Bonds good. US equities not great. UK equities a little better. Emerging markets better. Non-US developed markets best of all. 60/40 portfolio looking good. Little better than a wild guess of course. I have never known Vanguard to say "it will be rotten".

Fairly sensible stuff imo. It's Vanguard and they are going to base off of the most measurable things - valuations and economic conditions.

They're very like to be wrong, of course, as are all forecasters... but at least there is method to their madness..

[GeoffF100]

I have cut out the verbiage.

Vanguard's annualised 10 year returns for a UK investor (just the mid-point estimates)

UK bonds 4.9%.
Global ex-UK bonds 5%.

US equities 5.1%.
UK equities 5.7%.
Non-US developed markets 7.8%.
Emerging markets 7.4%.

UK and global ex-UK bonds seem to have about the same prospects. US and UK equities look over valued. Nonetheless, the Vanguard philosophy is (or at least was) to shake your head and buy a global tracker. If I put in the market weights for a global equity tracker, I get very nearly 6% (versus nearly 5% for bonds). Is it worth the risk for another 1%? I do not know what will happen, but being overweight in equities does not look a good idea right now, based on those numbers.