Vanguard's Guesses
Posted: November 20th, 2023, 9:57 pm
by GeoffF100
Vanguard, What to expect from the economy and markets in 2024":
https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/arti ... ts-in-2024Actually, the interesting guesstimates are for the next decade. Bonds good. US equities not great. UK equities a little better. Emerging markets better. Non-US developed markets best of all. 60/40 portfolio looking good. Little better than a wild guess of course. I have never known Vanguard to say "it will be rotten".
Re: Vanguard's Guesses
Posted: November 22nd, 2023, 10:31 am
by Hariseldon58
Re: Vanguard's Guesses
Posted: November 23rd, 2023, 10:58 am
by vand
GeoffF100 wrote:Vanguard, What to expect from the economy and markets in 2024":
https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/arti ... ts-in-2024Actually, the interesting guesstimates are for the next decade. Bonds good. US equities not great. UK equities a little better. Emerging markets better. Non-US developed markets best of all. 60/40 portfolio looking good. Little better than a wild guess of course. I have never known Vanguard to say "it will be rotten".
Fairly sensible stuff imo. It's Vanguard and they are going to base off of the most measurable things - valuations and economic conditions.
They're very like to be
wrong, of course, as are all forecasters... but at least there is method to their madness..
Re: Vanguard's Guesses
Posted: November 24th, 2023, 10:01 am
by GeoffF100
I have cut out the verbiage.
Vanguard's annualised 10 year returns for a UK investor (just the mid-point estimates)
UK bonds 4.9%.
Global ex-UK bonds 5%.
US equities 5.1%.
UK equities 5.7%.
Non-US developed markets 7.8%.
Emerging markets 7.4%.
UK and global ex-UK bonds seem to have about the same prospects. US and UK equities look over valued. Nonetheless, the Vanguard philosophy is (or at least was) to shake your head and buy a global tracker. If I put in the market weights for a global equity tracker, I get very nearly 6% (versus nearly 5% for bonds). Is it worth the risk for another 1%? I do not know what will happen, but being overweight in equities does not look a good idea right now, based on those numbers.