Remove ads

Introducing the LemonFools Personal Finance Calculators

Bad start to the year

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
ap8889
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1180
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:55 am
Has thanked: 113 times
Been thanked: 229 times

Bad start to the year

#121184

Postby ap8889 » February 28th, 2018, 9:43 pm

Just totted up February's figures. It makes sad reading: The trailing portfolio return, year to date is -3%.

Over the last 12 months I am up 10.7% :D , but the recent dip has definitely dented my numbers.

Happily it is payday! So I have a chance to redeem myself, if I can pick the right holdings to top up....

mickeypops
Lemon Pip
Posts: 91
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 2:10 pm
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 34 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#121216

Postby mickeypops » March 1st, 2018, 8:54 am

I've done a litte better than that. The FTSE100 is down about 6% for the year. Our funds - me and Mrs MP run SIPPs and Isas, plus employer DC schemes - are down 2.3% for the year when I exclude new savings. With the new money, we're down just 1.3% and I'm happy with that.

We are retiring at the end of April, when we will collect a considerable amount of tax free cash from our employers' DB schemes, so I'm happy to see markets stay flat until I can collect this and invest it at lower prices. Our retirement funds - excluding some DB deferred pensions we both have - are mostly invested in income focussed ITs.

Darwin
Posts: 14
Joined: March 12th, 2018, 6:56 am
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 10 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129207

Postby Darwin » March 31st, 2018, 5:08 pm


PinkDalek
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2763
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:12 pm
Has thanked: 567 times
Been thanked: 583 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129236

Postby PinkDalek » March 31st, 2018, 10:26 pm

1nv35t wrote:Good news if you're looking to add shares, not so good if you're looking to sell. So by the OP saying Bad Start To Year I guess they're selling.


Back then, the OP was looking at buying:

viewtopic.php?p=121184#p121184

ap8889
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1180
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:55 am
Has thanked: 113 times
Been thanked: 229 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129244

Postby ap8889 » April 1st, 2018, 6:35 am

Just about to do the months figures. I have a bit of trepidation, as looking at the spreadsheet it is wall to wall red.

ap8889
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1180
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:55 am
Has thanked: 113 times
Been thanked: 229 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129246

Postby ap8889 » April 1st, 2018, 7:28 am

Yep, confirmed its another 3% down month on month and 5.9% down year to date. Not disasterous but painful to watch. Payday again so, another VWRL buy order likely, along with a whole raft of bed-and-ISA moves planned this week.

Raptor
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1394
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:39 pm
Has thanked: 90 times
Been thanked: 195 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129257

Postby Raptor » April 1st, 2018, 9:49 am

I normally do not watch the "portfolio" value that closely but after this went and had a look. Based on January's figures. Febraury was -4.89%. March -2.42% down on February. So -7.31% on the year. Cannot give y-o-y as from April to June last year sold shares to fund project.

Good time to buy? :lol:

Raptor

Lootman
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3700
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 544 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129280

Postby Lootman » April 1st, 2018, 12:59 pm

1nv35t wrote:Good news if you're looking to add shares, not so good if you're looking to sell. So by the OP saying Bad Start To Year I guess they're selling.

If you already own a lot of shares and are buying only a few more, then you might not be that happy about lower prices.

On the other hand if you are sitting on a big pile of cash waiting for lower prices, then it would be good. But then how long have you been doing that for? Prices have been going up for nearly ten years now so you might have missed a lot of profits.

tjh290633
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2111
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 124 times
Been thanked: 603 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129292

Postby tjh290633 » April 1st, 2018, 2:44 pm

Lower prices are good if you are reinvesting accumulated dividends, with the objective of getting increased income. It's the old story, watch the dividends and not the prices.

An article in yesterday's Telegraph was predicting bumper increases in dividends in 2018. Can't spot it online at the moment.

TJH

Itsallaguess
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2193
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 1064 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129302

Postby Itsallaguess » April 1st, 2018, 3:47 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
An article in yesterday's Telegraph was predicting bumper increases in dividends in 2018.

Can't spot it online at the moment.


I think it might be this one Terry -

Embattled investors will be rewarded with a bumper spring payday despite the worst quarter for global stocks in years. Dividends are set to soar to as much as $400bn (£285bn) in the coming months, easing the pain caused by a turbulent start to the year on markets.

Wall Street analysts estimate that dividends could climb to a monthly record of $174bn in May.

Payouts are expected to be driven higher by buoyant global growth and the savings generated from Donald Trump’s huge corporate tax cuts. Morgan Stanley calculated $400bn is set to be paid into investor accounts between March and May in what is typically a high season for dividend payments.

The investment bank argued that the payout will provide “some welcome (temporary) relief” for investors amid a surge in volatility on markets.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... et-misery/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

tjh290633
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2111
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 124 times
Been thanked: 603 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129332

Postby tjh290633 » April 1st, 2018, 6:24 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
An article in yesterday's Telegraph was predicting bumper increases in dividends in 2018.

Can't spot it online at the moment.


I think it might be this one Terry -

Embattled investors will be rewarded with a bumper spring payday despite the worst quarter for global stocks in years. Dividends are set to soar to as much as $400bn (£285bn) in the coming months, easing the pain caused by a turbulent start to the year on markets.

Wall Street analysts estimate that dividends could climb to a monthly record of $174bn in May.

Payouts are expected to be driven higher by buoyant global growth and the savings generated from Donald Trump’s huge corporate tax cuts. Morgan Stanley calculated $400bn is set to be paid into investor accounts between March and May in what is typically a high season for dividend payments.

The investment bank argued that the payout will provide “some welcome (temporary) relief” for investors amid a surge in volatility on markets.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... et-misery/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


That's the one. Many thanks.

TJH

tjh290633
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2111
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 124 times
Been thanked: 603 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#129334

Postby tjh290633 » April 1st, 2018, 6:28 pm

1nv35t wrote:Conceptually a companies value and hence its share price will drop by the amount of dividend transferred off its books (paid to you). Reinvesting dividends when prices are low is in effect no different to not having paid a dividend. Spending dividends instead of not reinvesting them when prices are low is in effect no different to selling low.

We are aware about what happens when a share goes XD, but remember that accumulated dividends are not necessarily invested in the source shares.
The more reliable and less opaque story is to look at total return, price and dividends combined. "Dividends are less volatile than price" is also another misconception, at times dividend values have declined more than share prices. Just a matter of which time period you opt to measure over.

That is no misconception, it is a fact. You have an odd concept of volatility.

TJH

ap8889
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1180
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:55 am
Has thanked: 113 times
Been thanked: 229 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#142663

Postby ap8889 » May 31st, 2018, 8:53 pm

Well, a bad start to the year has completely turned around with the recent rally. At month end portfolio is showing up 6.2% year to date. So far so good, swinging from semi-disaster to semi-triumph.

ap8889
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1180
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:55 am
Has thanked: 113 times
Been thanked: 229 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#149267

Postby ap8889 » July 1st, 2018, 12:47 pm

Another positive month sees my holdings ticking up with 0.7% improvement.

That makes +6.9% for the year to date, +15.3% over 12 months.

July will see some good dividends planned to arrive so fingers crossed I can report progress again in a month.

I am due a hefty tax bill for 2017-18 so currently must build cash in preparation for that, which will reduce my ability to keep plowing more into the market. On the plus side, I have just landed a challenging new project with a personal effect of a pay rise until the job is done in about 2 years time. It looks good on paper but is still going to taxed to the moon and back though, so I doubt I will actually see much extra when all is said and done. I am definitely at the stage where working at an increased level just to get taxed heavily is unattractive, my time is worth more to me than the money.

Snorvey
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1750
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:51 pm
Has thanked: 391 times
Been thanked: 551 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#149269

Postby Snorvey » July 1st, 2018, 12:53 pm

Good dividends in July?

July has always been quite a poor month for me.

ap8889
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1180
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:55 am
Has thanked: 113 times
Been thanked: 229 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#156654

Postby ap8889 » August 2nd, 2018, 12:44 am

Sat down to work out the monthly figures using the spreadsheet: Up a pleasing 1.6% investment return on the month, 8.6% YTD. I should just quit now while I am ahead of the annual 8% investment return target my FIRE plan calls for....

No new funds added in July due to some big real-life expenses. I have taken up a new short-term contractor position with a chunky pay bump. Since April I have been building up cash outside the portfolio in anticipation of a tax bill so additional contributions have been below target of late. Hopefully August will allow some new cash to be added.

That is all, till next month, good luck all.

forlesen
Lemon Pip
Posts: 57
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:14 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 14 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#157096

Postby forlesen » August 4th, 2018, 10:16 am

Congratulations on your good recent performance. Have you posted a description of your portfolio somewhere? This would make it easier to get a sense of how comparable your results are with other peoples'.

ap8889
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1180
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:55 am
Has thanked: 113 times
Been thanked: 229 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#157107

Postby ap8889 » August 4th, 2018, 11:22 am

As of about a week ago It looked like this:

Code: Select all

Name                                                        | Portfolio Percentage
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B                             |                  1.5
Aviva plc                                                   |                  1.4
Berkeley Group Holdings PLC                                 |                  1.5
F&C Global Smaller Companies PLC                            |                  1.8
HSBC Holdings plc                                           |                  2.7
Henderson Smaller Companies Inv Trst PLC                    |                  4.0
Imperial Brands PLC                                         |                  3.1
INMARSAT PLC                                                |                  1.1
Legal & General Group Plc                                   |                  3.0
Manchester & London Investment Trust plc                    |                  1.9
Murray International Trust plc                              |                  1.7
Royal Dutch Shell Plc Class B                               |                  2.6
Rio Tinto plc                                               |                  2.6
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC                      |                  3.5
SSE SSE PLC ORD 50P                                         |                  1.6
Unilever plc                                                |                  1.1
Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS (VWRL)                        |                 20.0
WPP PLC                                                     |                  1.1
FUNDSMITH EQUITY I INSTL ACC NAV                            |                  7.5
VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY 100 PERC EQUITY ACC NAV               |                 27.3
Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc                            |                  0.0
National Grid plc                                           |                  1.2
VANGUARD FUNDS PLC VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS UCITS ETF |                  1.2
Persimmon plc                                               |                  1.8
VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY 100 PERC EQUITY INC NAV               |                  2.8
PFC PETROFAC LIMITED ORD USD0.02                            |                  0.2
Hurricane Energy PLC                                        |                  1.4

YeeWo
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 239
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 10:12 am
Has thanked: 48 times
Been thanked: 34 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#157114

Postby YeeWo » August 4th, 2018, 12:28 pm

I'm "up" an anaemic 2.58% YTD. The decline in Vodafone and Tobacco stocks the main drag on a YTD basis anyway. Bought some more Vodafone yesterday upon receipt of their huge dividend payout. As things stand today if I finish '18 up >5-6% I'll be really Glad. GLA! :D

Code: Select all

Co.  | SP 05/01 | SP 03/08 | YTD %  | % Pfo | XIRR 
VOD  |    £2.37 |    £1.85 | -22.0% |  9.5% | -1.04%
BATS |   £49.70 |   £41.90 | -15.7% |  6.8% | -6.70%
INCH |    £7.85 |    £6.99 | -11.0% |  4.5% | 12.66%
IMB  |   £31.70 |   £29.29 |  -7.6% |  7.1% | -6.98%
HSBA |    £7.64 |    £7.16 |  -6.2% |  4.7% |  9.81%
BLND |    £6.75 |    £6.56 |  -2.8% |  3.7% | 10.11%
REL  |   £17.14 |   £16.77 |  -2.2% |  4.1% | 20.56%
JLT  |   £14.04 |   £13.92 |  -0.9% |  5.5% | 28.87%
G4S  |    £2.75 |    £2.74 |  -0.3% |  4.4% | 34.26%
RB   |   £68.41 |   £68.65 |   0.4% |  4.5% |  1.77%
IHG  |   £46.91 |   £47.12 |   0.4% |  3.8% | 11.60%
RDSB |   £25.63 |   £25.98 |   1.4% |  7.4% | 34.48%
SN   |   £12.86 |   £13.57 |   5.5% |  4.4% | 10.00%
DGE  |   £26.72 |   £28.23 |   5.7% |  4.6% | 11.99%
BP   |    £5.30 |    £5.61 |   5.8% |  5.8% | 16.95%
ULVR |   £40.93 |   £43.70 |   6.8% |  5.3% | 12.83%
AZN  |   £52.04 |   £58.46 |  12.3% |  2.3% | 31.38%
GSK  |   £13.61 |   £15.53 |  14.1% |  4.3% | -0.39%
CCH  |   £23.83 |   £27.39 |  14.9% |  2.1% | 18.13%
RR   |    £8.64 |   £10.94 |  26.6% |  3.1% | 10.63%
FEET | N/A      |   £12.98 | N/A    |  2.1% | -1.16%

forlesen
Lemon Pip
Posts: 57
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:14 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 14 times

Re: Bad start to the year

#157229

Postby forlesen » August 4th, 2018, 11:59 pm

My own overall TR performance on the year to date appears to be around 3.1% for my SIPP and 4.6% for my other investments, both largely IT and ETF based. The SIPP includes a fair number of wealth preservation elements (e.g. things like PNL / Ruffer, ZDPs, index linked gilts, etc), and these have dragged down its overall return this year.

Sat down to work out the monthly figures using the spreadsheet: Up a pleasing 1.6% investment return on the month, 8.6% YTD. I should just quit now while I am ahead of the annual 8% investment return target my FIRE plan calls for....


ap8889, I took a look at your portfolio (many thanks for the detailed listing), and I'm struggling to see where your 8.6% return is coming from. Your OEICs and ITs appear to have returned something close to this, but your ETFs and your Equities appear to have returned less.

I wonder if perhaps you are including your new savings / pension contributions as part of the return? I can see this would make sense for you, as you track your progress towards FIRE (I certainly tracked my total wealth each month while I was working and saving towards FIRE, and indeed still do), but it makes portfolio performance comparisons difficult...


Return to “Portfolio Management & Review”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest