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Introducing the LemonFools Personal Finance Calculators

Bad start to the year

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
ap8889
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Re: Bad start to the year

#157416

Postby ap8889 » August 5th, 2018, 11:16 pm

Hi forlesen,

Sorry it has taken me a day to get back to you. You are correct, we are not comparing like-with-like.

For reference I use the natty Bogleheads sheet here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Calcula ... al_returns

The basic reason I run the return calcs is to show to my wife the result: The question I need to answer is how I am performing by taking control of the finances making my own risk choices vs either spending the money (always a risk with the missus), or saving it in a cash account (my wife's risk averse investment option of choice).

Thus I account for basic tax rebates as a gain. Higher rate rebates should by this rationale also be accounted for as an addition gain, but I have chosen not to as it is too much extra faff compared to just plugging in the raw numbers from Youinvest into the sheet at the month close. I only do the tax return annually which is only where the higher rebate matters in practice to me.

So: The use of the dregs of my carryover gave an extra boost due to SIPP contributions in Q1, accounting for c1-2% boost.
The LISA government contribution also arrived in May which adds another boost, maybe 0.5-1%

As you know the timing of any new money is important, and in this case was rather favourable as over twenty grand was invested in the various tax wrappers between Jan and April. For once pound-cost averaging working in my favour, investing in the dip, which accounts for the remaining performance.

forlesen
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Re: Bad start to the year

#157420

Postby forlesen » August 6th, 2018, 12:02 am

Hi again ap8889, that explains it.

I had a somewhat different approach to the same need. To explain the outcome of my savings and investment activities to my partner, I usually just showed her the bottom line every few months, i.e. our total wealth growing over time. But for my own purposes, to monitor how my investments were performing, I treated pension tax refunds in the same way as my own contributions, so I would see the same return for an identical set of investments, no matter what wrapper they were in, e.g. SIPP, ISA, investment account. (At least in principle - timings of new investment money will in practice often be different in different types of account, for a variety of reasons.)

I'll take a closer look at the Bogleheads sheet, I might be able to use that myself. It would hopefully be simpler than messing about with XIRR in Excel, which I do once in a while to work out my overall return.

ap8889
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Re: Bad start to the year

#163507

Postby ap8889 » September 1st, 2018, 10:18 am

Another month, another positive result: +0.6% up.

Having just been paid for a bumper months work I should return to regular deposits for the rest of the year. An additional 2% cash will be added. No tax wrappers left to use, so I am looking for a share that will not provide income (inefficient via loss of pension annual allowance and income tax) and a chance of a near term capital gain within 12m-24m. More Hurricane Energy is a possibility, or maybe I should play it safe with Berkshire Hathaway.

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Re: Bad start to the year

#165193

Postby monabri » September 8th, 2018, 8:25 pm



And we're back again at 7277 for the FTSE100!

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Re: Bad start to the year

#165211

Postby TUK020 » September 8th, 2018, 10:29 pm

that makes them cheaper to buy!

ap8889
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Re: Bad start to the year

#170201

Postby ap8889 » September 30th, 2018, 5:56 am

So another month, the portfolio edges up again 0.3% helped by a good showing by Hurricane as events move towards first oil and a fair helping of dividend cash arriving from my sad looking collection of HY shares. Will my tobacco shares ever recover? What was I thinking when I bought so much Inmarsat? ::kicks self::

Anyway, enough reproach. This month sees me with 3% cash to spend. I am probably up to my sensible limit on exposure to Hurricane, so need to get a new growth share to sit alongside it in the unsheltered account. Much research needed, but I am leaning towards adding a new IT holding, either Baillie Gifford Japan, JII, or Harborvest PE.

We will see. Until next time!

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+0.60% YTD

#170261

Postby YeeWo » September 30th, 2018, 1:58 pm

The Winners for the year: -

Code: Select all

Co.  | SP 05/01 | SP 28/09 | YTD %  | % Pfo | XIRR 
JLT  |   £14.04 |   £18.96 | 35.04% |  2.5% | 38.60%
AZN  |   £52.04 |   £59.63 | 14.58% |  2.4% | 30.24%
RR   |    £8.64 |    £9.87 | 14.28% |  2.9% |  8.84%
GSK  |   £13.61 |   £15.37 | 12.92% |  4.3% | -0.85%
BP   |    £5.30 |    £5.89 | 11.27% |  6.3% | 18.00%
CCH  |   £23.83 |   £26.13 |  9.65% |  2.0% | 11.92%
SN   |   £12.86 |   £14.00 |  8.87% |  4.6% | 10.93%
RDSB |   £25.63 |   £26.89 |  4.92% |  7.8% | 34.55%
ULVR |   £40.93 |   £42.16 |  3.02% |  5.2% | 12.41%
RB   |   £68.41 |   £70.16 |  2.56% |  4.7% |  4.78%
IHG  |   £46.91 |   £47.80 |  1.90% |  4.0% | 11.29%
DGE  |   £26.72 |   £27.19 |  1.76% |  6.8% | 11.60%
TATE |          |    £6.83 |        |  1.8% |  6.73%
- Jardine Lloyd Thompson is being taken over at £19.15 per share. AZN is exceptionally well run and has had some medical breakthrough. GSK/RR are both being restructured. Tate & Lyle New Purchase last week........
The Losers for the year: -

Code: Select all

Co.  | SP 05/01 | SP 28/09 | YTD %   | % Pfo | XIRR   
VOD  |    £2.37 |    £1.65 | -30.53% | 10.9% | -14.46%
BATS |   £49.70 |   £35.85 | -27.88% |  6.5% | -16.39%
IMB  |   £31.70 |   £26.71 | -15.74% |  6.6% | -12.24%
INCH |    £7.85 |    £6.69 | -14.78% |  4.4% |  12.51%
HSBA |    £7.64 |    £6.70 | -12.27% |  4.4% |   9.40%
G4S  |    £2.75 |    £2.42 | -12.06% |  3.9% |  24.95%
BLND |    £6.75 |    £6.17 |  -8.60% |  3.6% |   6.32%
REL  |   £17.14 |   £16.16 |  -5.69% |  4.0% |  20.12%
- Vodafone must be near bottom now, dividend (albeit expensively bought looks safe) and sale-and-lease back of masts, Indian & Australian restructuring should bare fruit going forward. New CEO @ BATS, last one "retired". Can see no logical reason beyond market-sentiment for decline at Inchcape.
- This year, so far, TR has been very poor although dividends received (albeit all reinvested) have been well ahead of 2017. I do like some of the rationale behind HYP, however "capital doesn't matter" doesn't appeal to me. 2018 may end up being the year were I console myself with increasing dividends and ignore capital. IF Vodafone and Tobacco stocks recover I'm very well positioned!!

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Re: Bad start to the year

#170325

Postby spiderbill » September 30th, 2018, 7:38 pm

Hope you're right about Vodafone, and that tobacco comes back - IMB are one of my biggest losers, which would have sounded ridiculous not so long ago.
Now if only the South African political situation would stabilise then my Pan African Resources gold shares would get back to normal (i.e. double), and if the UK political situation would stabilise then National Grid and SSE might improve. Petrofac getting rid of their SFO investigation would be nice too.

No idea what would help Inmarsat though ;-)

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Re: Bad start to the year

#177428

Postby ap8889 » October 31st, 2018, 6:05 pm

Portfolio return as of 10/31/2018
1 month -6.7%
3 months -5.9%
6 months 3.3%
YTD 2.3%
1 year 5.5%

Well, that was a very poor month, the worst yet. In Feburary there was an airpocket, but this month has felt a lot like clear air turbulence: No real reason, but the market sold off, spooked.

Worst performers for me this month have been Hurricane Energy, as my top up was ill timed, and WPP, which I am convinced is cursed. WPP hit my stop loss and was sold off automatically, but it has not performed at all as I hoped when I bought after Sorrell stepped down.

Some dividends landed this month, as usual though which was oddly comforting in the sea of red. It is also useful to see that I am still well ahead of holding cash for the year.

A lot of shares appear good value currently, but I feel I do better when I stick to collectives and it hads been a tough month confidencewise. Thus this month I will simply hedge my bets and buy a chunk of the global index with Vanguard LS 100. With the FTSE100 at a level I consider to be value at 4.5% yield, that also looks pretty tempting too. Just keep buying through the pain!

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Re: Bad start to the year

#177432

Postby TUK020 » October 31st, 2018, 6:41 pm

spiderbill wrote:No idea what would help Inmarsat though ;-)


Solar flare.............but then that would clobber the insurers
:D

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Re: Bad start to the year

#177434

Postby ReformedCharacter » October 31st, 2018, 6:57 pm

spiderbill wrote:
No idea what would help Inmarsat though ;-)


A takeover, it seemed to be a possibility a few months ago :D

RC

ap8889
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Re: Bad start to the year

#185142

Postby ap8889 » December 6th, 2018, 5:22 pm

So, a little late for this months report.

Possibly because it is depressing: down a further 2.7%.

My 12 month return is showing I am up 2.6 % which is crap, scant reward for the risks. But them's the breaks and that's the market at the moment. Gotta be in it to win it.

Oh well, maybe 2019 will be better!

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Re: Bad start to the year

#185558

Postby Charlottesquare » December 8th, 2018, 11:13 am

ap8889 wrote:So, a little late for this months report.

Possibly because it is depressing: down a further 2.7%.

My 12 month return is showing I am up 2.6 % which is crap, scant reward for the risks. But them's the breaks and that's the market at the moment. Gotta be in it to win it.

Oh well, maybe 2019 will be better!


Just console yourself with the fact that any new money and dividends will now go further- the only valuation that really matters is the one when you wish to start encashing the savings.

Must admit has not been a good year, each year I forecast where I hope to be at the end of the year, I tend to allow 7-8% uplift, 2018/2019 is certainly not going to make the target so the consolation is now that 2016/2017 managed it in spades and 2017/2018 was unspectacular but steady. (I work on tax years)

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Re: Bad start to the year

#185696

Postby ap8889 » December 9th, 2018, 1:21 am

Yes. Happily I am able to throw lots of money in over the next few months: my new contract is paying well! I will deploy my set-aside cashpile now my tax bill is finalised which hopefully means I am ploughing money in at a better value FTSE. I mean, 6700 looks cheap to me, but what do I know?


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