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Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
doug2500
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Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255718

Postby doug2500 » October 3rd, 2019, 8:09 pm

Well the half year is up this weekend, and unless something miraculous happens tomorrow the review will be a car crash!

It will not be a read for anyone with a weak stomach, It feels like pretty much anything which could go wrong has gone wrong.

torata
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Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255808

Postby torata » October 4th, 2019, 10:39 am

doug2500 wrote:Well the half year is up this weekend, and unless something miraculous happens tomorrow the review will be a car crash!

It will not be a read for anyone with a weak stomach, It feels like pretty much anything which could go wrong has gone wrong.


Hello Doug
Possibly I've missed it, but you don't seem to have a benchmark. It might soften the blow.
Or possibly harden it.

torata

monabri
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Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255811

Postby monabri » October 4th, 2019, 10:49 am

doug2500 wrote:Well the half year is up this weekend, and unless something miraculous happens tomorrow the review will be a car crash!

It will not be a read for anyone with a weak stomach, It feels like pretty much anything which could go wrong has gone wrong.


Well you sold WEIF in April 19...that was a smart move!

doug2500
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Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255821

Postby doug2500 » October 4th, 2019, 11:32 am

I use FTSE Allshare TR as a benchmark. Certainly small cap seems to be hit harder than large but I'm not sure right now how the benchmark has done.

I did sell the fund but still have WPCT, I'll explain why in the review (although I wish I didn't have to!)

doug2500
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Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255935

Postby doug2500 » October 4th, 2019, 6:57 pm

Well the scores are in:

Unit prices (based at 100 on 5th April 2017)
Taxed Accounts 107.82
ISA's 126.91
FTSE Allshare TR 107.89

And the % change for the last quarter followed by 6 months
Taxed Accounts -7.5% -7.4%
ISA's -8.5% -3.9%
FTSE Allshare TR -5% -2%

So most of the damage has been in the last 3 months, but it's not as bad as I'd feared, especially on a long term view where my unit prices stand up okay since 2017.

Review to follow.

doug2500
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Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#255965

Postby doug2500 » October 4th, 2019, 10:16 pm

The Good Bits (bit)
IG Group
I bought quite a lot more of IGG as their TU’s became more positive. This has worked out reasonably well when compared to the wider picture. One of the very few highlights.

The sales:
Zytronic
Sold out straight away on the profit warning. Right thing to do.
Keywords
Top sliced on interims, they were a bit disappointing. Might top up again, or sell out.
Aptitude
Top sliced a small amount because I wasn’t convinced the price would hold up after the return of capital, and I fancied having a small amount of cash available. So far my fears look unfounded.
K3 Capital
I was delighted to buy in June after the TU for 129p but the results were worse than I expected in September and I sold out at 142p. Although the results fell short, the outlook looked okay but I still expected a 25% drop because I’d had a few kickings by then (See below). It’s since gone up.

The Problems
Advanced Medical Solutions
Profit warning. I could have got out at 250p but chose not to. They continued to fall but soon bounced back up and I felt my decision was vindicated. They are now following the normal PW pattern and slowly drifting away.
Burford
There’s been enough written about this. By the time I could get a price it was (I think) 400p and I wasn’t going to sell at that. I always knew it was hard to value and outside my competence but I at least understood it used all cash reinvesting in new cases. I was disappointed that so many people seemed to be wise after the event, I didn’t think Muddy Waters raised anything too suprising myself and decided on balance to ride it out. It’s been quite a ride. I still think at 800p it’s worth a punt.
Somero
I should have just sold out. But I didn’t and now I’m more tempted to buy more at this price. If nothing else I’ll hold for the 8.5% divi.
Sopheon
Another profit warning. Again by the time I could get a price I decided to keep them for that price and so far they’re holding up.
Woodford Patient Capital
Really should have dumped this at the first sign of trouble. Then the second. Then the third. Had they been in an online account I think I would have sold them pronto but they’re certificated. I really miss my CREST account.
Zotefoams
Another profit warning. Again decided to hold rather than sell after a 35% drop. Still not cheap so I hope this is not a mistake.

Disappointing
Bioventix
Was strongly priced but has just drifted away by 10% since it’s high.
FDM
Probably won’t get any news until Jan but it’s just drifting away.

General Musings
Markets are tough right now. Especially small cap, but maybe they were overpriced before?
Is business tough? I’ve never had so many profit warnings.
It’s tough to be a buy and hold, long only, mainly small cap, non-market timing investor this year.
My confidence has taken a dent, I’m finding it tougher than 10 years ago, maybe because there’s more money involved now? Maybe because I was inexperienced then but have some experience (and confidence, and ego?) now.
Take overs seem to be on the up but it’s years since I had one.
I really, really miss my CREST account. But not enough to pay £500 for one. It’s the perfect balance of ownership, rights, speed and flexibility.
The benefit of doing this is the unit prices are not as bad as I’d feared and that’s cheered me up. Those dividends accumulating in the background must help.

TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Doug 2500's Annual Portfolio review

#256237

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » October 6th, 2019, 5:14 pm

Good report Doug, thanks for posting. We have some stocks in common, alas, some of the problematic AIMS:

AMS reduced position by 70%
BUR completely sold off at about 770ish
ZYT reduced position by 50%

Matt


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