Drop since year end

[Walkeia]

-17% Total return YTD on portfolio

Don't think we're out of the woods; and won't be for probably another 6 to 9 months. Big difference with markets here is that I am finding a lot I like. I never imagined I would be able to add UK inflation linked bonds at significantly positive real yields.

[Dod101]

-17% Total return YTD on portfolio

Don't think we're out of the woods; and won't be for probably another 6 to 9 months. Big difference with markets here is that I am finding a lot I like. I never imagined I would be able to add UK inflation linked bonds at significantly positive real yields.

If we get a recession, I imagine that it will be for a lot longer than 6 to 9 months, although of course, markets are always looking forward and will start to recover well before any recession has ended.

Dod

[1nvest]

-17% Total return YTD on portfolio

Don't think we're out of the woods; and won't be for probably another 6 to 9 months. Big difference with markets here is that I am finding a lot I like. I never imagined I would be able to add UK inflation linked bonds at significantly positive real yields.

If we get a recession, I imagine that it will be for a lot longer than 6 to 9 months, although of course, markets are always looking forward and will start to recover well before any recession has ended.

Dod

FT250 is a more real time indicator. Recessions are a lagged indicator, 2 quarters of GDP declines. Often by the time a official recession is flagged, FT250 has already bottomed (can be a good time to buy - if the recession is more average/short, but not so if a more prolonged decline).

Has the FT250 bottomed? I'd guess not. For many firms energy costs have gone through the roof such that they're on the brink of simply shutting up shop. A bakery that was paying £25K/year for gas, making £50K profits ... type situation, having transitioned to where gas has risen to £75K/year and his customers wont pay £4/loaf instead of £1/loaf.

What more usually occurs is that faltering companies fall out of the FT250 to be replaced with profitable up-starts, which tends to drive the turn-around. Which takes a while, especially when firms will struggle with employing people (more jobs than workers, combined 20% tax, 12% NI, 9% student loan tax, making it unattractive for graduates to work/earn any more than £20K/year such as via part time working).

Hoping for a return to lower energy prices at best looks distant, if at all. Putin will just long range attack Ukraine to prolong the war and keep Ukraine out of NATO until such times that it's infrastructure is destroyed, Zelensky is killed and the people emigrate/surrender (long game). He's sitting sweet. Can send dissidents to the front lines, and just fire attacks from within Russia without fear of anything coming back in the other direction. Enough conventional weapons can do far more destruction/devastation than nuclear weapons.

LT/KK's intent was to treble up on the current 1% richest that pay a third of the total income tax take, make the UK a place to be for up-starts/wealthy (lower taxes etc.). But party infighting/mechanics is pretty much blowing that out of the water, seems the majority of Tories prefer the prolonged slow decline of the UK and Labour style policies (drive out the 1% to leave the rest having to pay 50% more taxes to fill that hole).

[Dod101]

LT/KK's intent was to treble up on the current 1% richest that pay a third of the total income tax take, make the UK a place to be for up-starts/wealthy (lower taxes etc.). But party infighting/mechanics is pretty much blowing that out of the water, seems the majority of Tories prefer the prolonged slow decline of the UK and Labour style policies (drive out the 1% to leave the rest having to pay 50% more taxes to fill that hole).

This comment at ;least, is off topic for this Board but if you believe that................

Dod

[csearle]

Corrected it for you

Moderator Message:
Please justify your "fact" in a satisfactory (and of course polite) way. If this isn't forthcoming I'll assume it's simply an opinion and adjust this thread accordingly. C.

[1nvest]

Corrected it for you

Moderator Message:
Please justify your "fact" in a satisfactory (and of course polite) way. If this isn't forthcoming I'll assume it's simply an opinion and adjust this thread accordingly. C.

For one ... https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/107919/1/Hope ... lished.pdf

But a rather obvious fact that higher taxation repels money/wealth, towards instead lower/fairer taxation alternatives. David Bowie, Rolling Stones ...etc. all opted to self exile when UK taxation became punitively high in the 1960's (under a Labour Government), peaking at a retrospective 130% total taxation rate in 1968.

[csearle]

For one ... https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/107919/1/Hope ... lished.pdf

But a rather obvious fact that higher taxation repels money/wealth, towards instead lower/fairer taxation alternatives. David Bowie, Rolling Stones ...etc. all opted to self exile when UK taxation became punitively high in the 1960's (under a Labour Government), peaking at a retrospective 130% total taxation rate in 1968.

Moderator Message:
Thanks, I'll let others discuss whether this is fact or opinion. (I have removed your "corrected" quote because personally I find this rather a rude device.) C.

PS FWIW I agree with you that, counter-intuitive as it may seem, in our society attracting those that earn enormous amounts of money to our shores is probably better for those that don't earn that much than driving them elsewhere.

[1nvest]

For one ... https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/107919/1/Hope ... lished.pdf

But a rather obvious fact that higher taxation repels money/wealth, towards instead lower/fairer taxation alternatives. David Bowie, Rolling Stones ...etc. all opted to self exile when UK taxation became punitively high in the 1960's (under a Labour Government), peaking at a retrospective 130% total taxation rate in 1968.

Moderator Message:
Thanks, I'll let others discuss whether this is fact or opinion. (I have removed your "corrected" quote because personally I find this rather a rude device.) C.

Fair enough. It was rather spur of moment reply as Don repeatedly trolls which incites such responses.

[Dod101]

For one ... https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/107919/1/Hope ... lished.pdf

But a rather obvious fact that higher taxation repels money/wealth, towards instead lower/fairer taxation alternatives. David Bowie, Rolling Stones ...etc. all opted to self exile when UK taxation became punitively high in the 1960's (under a Labour Government), peaking at a retrospective 130% total taxation rate in 1968.

Moderator Message:
Thanks, I'll let others discuss whether this is fact or opinion. (I have removed your "corrected" quote because personally I find this rather a rude device.) C.

Fair enough. It was rather spur of moment reply as Don repeatedly trolls which incites such responses.

Insofar as I understand the word, and that the poster means Dod, I do not ‘troll’ anything. I am slightly flattered that I should be accused of such a thing.

Dod

[AWOL]

I am down 14% including drawing an income. I don't know how that compares, badly i guess. An outsized holding of THRG has accounted for about half of that loss!

[licoricel]

Down 20%, mainly "growth" investment trusts and a chunk in Fundsmith, so expect they will get hammered further. Still paying in and don't need to access for c.6 years, so let's see what happens!

[Newroad]

Hi All.

Down around 13.99% at close of play on Wednesday.

Regards, Newroad

[simoan]

I'm not sure what value it adds just having a figure, particularly if it is not even clear on what basis the number is calculated. At the very least can people state whether the percentage change is on a Total Return or Capital only basis. And then it would be useful to provide a short commentary or the major contributors/detractors that lead to the stated performance.

FWLIW As of close yesterday I am down 8.14% YTD on a Total Return basis. Major contributor to this has been through entering the year 29% in cash. Current cash holding is 26% of portfolio. Strength of USD against GBP has been a major contributor to holding performance up. Main detractors have been my overweight position in UK mid and small caps, my underweight position in energy, and my holding in Fundsmith (which itself has been saved from a larger fall by weak GBP).

All the best, Si

[tjh290633]

This is my current situation:

This year    Inc Units   FTSE       Acc Units
31-Dec-21         6.42   7,384.54       32.61
22-Oct-22         5.74   6,969.73       30.85
               -10.67%     -5.62%      -5.41%

TJH

[Newroad]

Hi Simoan.

At risk of starting a furore, whenever I cite performance for general consumption it is on a (unitised) Total Return basis - nothing else makes sense to me for this purpose.

To ameliorate this in the eyes of those who think it makes me the spawn of hell, the fact that I think this is the only reasonable way to express performance doesn't mean I think it unreasonable for those who don't care about capital values to cite, for example, only income in a different context, e.g. what they choose to live on or similar.

On factors underlying the performance, I don't actually pay a great deal of attention (or record at that level of detail) as they are predominantly 4 holding, diversified, global, half active/half passive, equity/bond (around a 70/30 split on average - slightly higher for the kids, slightly lower for the adults). Perhaps I should, but that's sort of the point - it's sort of fire and forget other than the somewhat mechanical top-up process.

I could reverse engineer the performance by looking at my rebalancing top-ups as a proxy (which implicitly are of the weaker performers). However, in this recent period, I think both the bonds and equities have fallen in not dissimilar fashion.

Regards, Newroad

[simoan]

Hi Simoan.

At risk of starting a furore, whenever I cite performance for general consumption it is on a (unitised) Total Return basis - nothing else makes sense to me for this purpose.

I completely agree that TR is the only meaningful metric, but I'm not sure everyone else does and it is not clear what their quoted performance relates to. As such, the content of their post is meaningless to others. FWIW My post was a general comment to the thread and not aimed at you.

All the best, Si

[simoan]

This is my current situation:

This year    Inc Units   FTSE       Acc Units
31-Dec-21         6.42   7,384.54       32.61
22-Oct-22         5.74   6,969.73       30.85
               -10.67%     -5.62%      -5.41%

TJH

I'll be honest, I'm not sure what this means? Is it right to compare these Unit returns with the return of the FTSE 100 excluding dividends?

[monabri]

This is my current situation:

This year    Inc Units   FTSE       Acc Units
31-Dec-21         6.42   7,384.54       32.61
22-Oct-22         5.74   6,969.73       30.85
               -10.67%     -5.62%      -5.41%

TJH

I'll be honest, I'm not sure what this means? Is it right to compare these Unit returns with the return of the FTSE 100 excluding dividends?

I don't think it is correct to compare HYP Acc units to the FTSE100. Strip out the dividends paid in the HYP and it might be fairer.

[Arborbridge]

This is my current situation:

This year    Inc Units   FTSE       Acc Units
31-Dec-21         6.42   7,384.54       32.61
22-Oct-22         5.74   6,969.73       30.85
               -10.67%     -5.62%      -5.41%

TJH

I'll be honest, I'm not sure what this means? Is it right to compare these Unit returns with the return of the FTSE 100 excluding dividends?

I'd prefer the FTSE TR, which is what I use to compare with HYP acc units.

Or compare income units with the FTSE100.

[OldPlodder]

Of course, as mentioned above, ACC units returns can only be compared with the TR version of the chosen index.

A slightly unusual situation (which I believe is bound to correct itself in due course) at the moment, because in general FTAS does better that the FTSE, by a yearly average of about 0.6% over the past couple of decades.

FTAS TR YTD is -6.96%
FTSE 100 TR YTD is -2.53%

Plodder