The Lemon Fool

Morning All.

I've been mildly excited waiting for the 19th June - as VAGP is now three years old. This means it will start appearing in the three year performance data and I can also see it's effects on moderating (or otherwise) portfolio volatility. All data below sourced from Trustnet.

Firstly, the nominal performance of (approximately) my SIPP vs FTSE100 and FTSE 350 (the latter two being popular references on this forum). The ISA's and JISA's are structurally very similar (even if the holdings for a different asset class mildly differ) hence have similar results. Actually, the ISA is better as MWY has outperformed ATST as the active equity holding.



Now split out into it's constituents



And finally, the portfolio's notional risk profile



where the red is ATST, the yellow VWRP and the green VAGP.

Big picture, I'm happy with what I'm seeing so far - higher return, lower risk - even after the recent period (where the US has underperformed and the FTSE has improved).

Obviously, if I'd just left the kids JISA's wholly in FCIT, they would have been even better ...

Regards, Newroad

Newroad wrote:Obviously, if I'd just left the kids JISA's wholly in FCIT, they would have been even better ...

Regards, Newroad

You live and learn, don't you.

TJH

Indeed, Terry.

Still, I got it approximately right (FCIT alone from either side of 2008 until around 2019) rather than specifically wrong, for the kids (and for that matter, for our SIPPS with ATST alone) - so my fiddling in the name of risk since then has only lost some of the cream on the cake.

Further, who knows - the fiddling may yet prove to be right in the case of an even more serious market event!

Regards, Newroad

Newroad wrote:Indeed, Terry.

Still, I got it approximately right (FCIT alone from either side of 2008 until around 2019) rather than specifically wrong, for the kids (and for that matter, for our SIPPS with ATST alone) - so my fiddling in the name of risk since then has only lost some of the cream on the cake.

Further, who knows - the fiddling may yet prove to be right in the event of an even more serious market event!

Regards, Newroad

I suspect that a massive increase in interest rates, which has to be on the cards, would tip the balance even more.

TJH

Hi Terry.

I would firstly say I'm not sure that the Western economies can, in general, handle (or politically be prepared to stomach) too great a raise in interest rates, before the cure becomes worse than the disease.

I would secondly say that inflation may (start at least) coming into check with a lower level of interest rates than people expect - with base effects playing a part.

Thirdly and finally, higher interest rates are already priced in - so we'd be talking about massive increases above and beyond those, for it to be an issue.

However, who knows - both continued serious inflation and (possibly later) serious deflation are both material possibilities at present.

Regards, Newroad