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TJH's HYP-Historical Data

A helpful place to also put any annual reports etc, of your own portfolios
tjh290633
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TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#107080

Postby tjh290633 » December 31st, 2017, 7:16 pm

I just worked out my calendar year data since my HYP started in 1987:

Unitised                                                                 
Income Units Annual Change
Date Unit Value Div/Unit p Unit Value Div/Unit Yield
21/04/87 1.00
31/12/87 0.88 2.81 -12.00% 3.19%
31/12/88 1.00 1.62 13.64% -42.35% 1.62%
31/12/89 1.28 4.83 28.00% 198.15% 3.77%
31/12/90 1.25 4.67 -2.34% -3.31% 3.74%
31/12/91 1.37 8.17 9.60% 74.95% 5.96%
31/12/92 1.54 7.53 12.41% -7.83% 4.89%
31/12/93 1.87 6.85 21.43% -9.03% 3.66%
31/12/94 1.72 7.29 -8.02% 6.42% 4.24%
31/12/95 2.01 8.09 16.86% 10.97% 4.02%
31/12/96 2.16 8.86 7.46% 9.52% 4.10%
31/12/97 2.86 9.90 32.41% 11.74% 3.46%
31/12/98 3.51 9.16 22.73% -7.47% 2.61%
31/12/99 3.95 10.51 12.54% 14.74% 2.66%
31/12/00 3.63 11.76 -8.10% 11.89% 3.24%
31/12/01 3.42 14.38 -5.79% 22.28% 4.20%
31/12/02 2.68 12.48 -21.64% -13.21% 4.66%
31/12/03 3.09 13.53 15.30% 8.41% 4.38%
31/12/04 3.51 14.94 13.59% 10.42% 4.26%
31/12/05 4.27 18.92 21.65% 26.64% 4.43%
31/12/06 5.15 20.36 20.61% 7.61% 3.95%
31/12/07 4.96 25.58 -3.69% 25.64% 5.16%
31/12/08 2.86 23.01 -42.34% -10.05% 8.05%
31/12/09 3.71 12.53 29.72% -45.55% 3.38%
31/12/10 4.46 15.91 20.22% 26.98% 3.57%
31/12/11 4.30 18.45 -3.59% 15.96% 4.29%
31/12/12 4.96 20.83 15.35% 12.90% 4.20%
31/12/13 5.88 23.67 18.55% 13.63% 4.03%
31/12/14 5.83 28.18 -0.85% 19.05% 4.83%
31/12/15 5.90 24.12 1.20% -14.41% 4.09%
31/12/16 6.44 25.50 9.15% 5.72% 3.96%
31/12/17 6.67 32.30 3.57% 26.67% 4.84%

Note that the dividend per unit includes all special dividends and returns of capital.

For example, in the current tax year (not yet complete) the ordinary dividends have risen by 9.7%, while including the special dividends it has risen by 18.8%. I don't have calendar year data readily to hand.

TJH

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#107421

Postby forlesen » January 2nd, 2018, 4:10 pm

Terry

Thanks for posting your latest annualised data. I'm surprised to see no one has yet replied to this, I doubt there is anyone else on the site with such a long and detailed data series of actual portfolio performance data. I certainly don't have data going back anything like that far - I think my other half shredded many of my old paper records some 10 years ago.

Out of interest, I had a go at comparing your unitised values with my own records for the last 10+ years, but before I say anything about that, I'd like to make sure I've understood what your Unit Values mean. I think your income units purely record the changes in average share prices, and don't accumulate any value from the dividends paid out. If I've got this right, your income units should be comparable with the following:
  • Index data (e.g. FTSE 100 etc)
  • Share price data for ITs (or performance data with income not reinvested)
If not, please put me straight!

tjh290633
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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#107484

Postby tjh290633 » January 2nd, 2018, 7:00 pm

You are quite correct. Dividends are used to buy additional income units at the end of the month of receipts, so the unit value reflects the price movement of the shares in the portfolio. The number of units reflects the value of dividends reinvested, any additional capital added or withdrawals made.

It is therefore directly comparable with market indices, as opposed to Total Return versions of the indices, and also with comparable ITs.

TJH

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#107870

Postby davidm84 » January 4th, 2018, 12:20 pm

TJH

Thanks for posting that. Just looking at the 30 complete years from 31.12.1987 I calculate your total return as an 11.41% compound annual growth rate which is 2.09% above the FTSE-AS TR. Well done.

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#107937

Postby tjh290633 » January 4th, 2018, 4:48 pm

I make it 10.45%, but you don't have the relevant cash flow to work from.

TJH

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#108683

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » January 8th, 2018, 8:11 am

Thanks for sharing, TJH.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#128984

Postby tjh290633 » March 30th, 2018, 11:33 am

Year end update to 28 March 2018:

.   Income Units              Accumulation
Year to Unit Value Div/Unit Unit Value
21-Apr-87 1.00 0.00 1.00
05-Apr-88 0.92 2.87 0.94
05-Apr-89 1.19 2.75 1.28
05-Apr-90 1.24 4.33 1.40
05-Apr-91 1.42 5.75 1.69
05-Apr-92 1.38 7.97 1.75
05-Apr-93 1.60 7.33 2.13
05-Apr-94 1.81 6.65 2.50
05-Apr-95 1.75 7.93 2.55
05-Apr-96 2.07 7.81 3.13
05-Apr-97 2.29 8.90 3.62
05-Apr-98 3.48 10.52 5.72
05-Apr-99 3.62 8.91 6.12
05-Apr-00 3.51 11.96 6.13
05-Apr-01 3.48 13.15 6.32
05-Apr-02 3.57 13.82 6.76
05-Apr-03 2.45 12.95 4.85
05-Apr-04 3.14 14.37 6.56
05-Apr-05 3.72 14.02 8.10
05-Apr-06 4.62 18.70 10.57
05-Apr-07 5.27 20.84 12.63
05-Apr-08 4.44 26.09 11.21
05-Apr-09 2.45 22.76 6.46
05-Apr-10 3.94 11.91 10.86
05-Apr-11 4.61 16.71 12.76
05-Apr-12 4.74 19.09 14.19
05-Apr-13 5.27 22.91 17.01
05-Apr-14 5.61 24.19 18.88
05-Apr-15 6.21 26.23 21.84
05-Apr-16 5.92 23.81 21.72
05-Apr-17 6.62 26.21 25.47
05-Apr-18 6.12 33.19 24.66

This shows how reinvested dividends have affected the value. The rate of return over that period has been 9.97%.

Of course the year to date has not been one of the best.

Current Portfolio (eliminating Carillion):

Value                           
Rank EPIC Weight % Median
1 WMH 3.81% 136.7%
2 RIO 3.54% 127.1%
3 RDSB 3.48% 124.8%
4 TW. 3.44% 123.5%
5 GSK 3.42% 122.6%
6 AZN 3.38% 121.1%
7 AV. 3.34% 119.6%
8 SGRO 3.27% 117.1%
9 SMDS 3.20% 114.5%
10 CPG 3.10% 111.1%
11 BP. 3.08% 110.3%
12 LGEN 3.06% 109.7%
13 ADM 2.95% 105.7%
14 IMB 2.93% 105.0%
15 DGE 2.91% 104.4%
16 MARS 2.89% 103.7%
17 SSE 2.85% 102.1%
18 BLND 2.85% 102.1%
19 BA. 2.79% 100.0%
20 ULVR 2.78% 99.8%
21 MKS 2.77% 99.5%
22 VOD 2.60% 93.1%
23 BT.A 2.60% 93.1%
24 UU. 2.60% 93.1%
25 PSON 2.58% 92.4%
26 IMI 2.55% 91.6%
27 BATS 2.49% 89.4%
28 LLOY 2.44% 87.3%
29 NG. 2.38% 85.3%
30 RB. 2.37% 84.9%
31 BLT 2.24% 80.5%
32 S32 2.18% 78.0%
33 TATE 2.15% 77.0%
34 KGF 2.12% 76.1%
35 TSCO 1.59% 57.0%
36 INDV 1.28% 45.9%

TJH

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#129007

Postby Raptor » March 30th, 2018, 1:52 pm

Much appreciated, I got out of CLLN with some money but took a big hit, not as much as those that kept it though. Am just about to review my portfolio for the last year, last dividend in yesterday. Your median figures are interesting? I have a 1.5 multiple on median as a "warning" and 2X as a "do something now" limit (on HY shares, IT's I have a different route as I brought 5 with a "large" SIPP wedge). I have found the 1.5X has been a great help, especially last year when I needed some money for a project.

Again, much appreciated. Raptor.

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#129036

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » March 30th, 2018, 4:05 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
.   Income Units              Accumulation
Year to Unit Value Div/Unit Unit Value
21-Apr-87 1.00 0.00 1.00
...
05-Apr-18 6.12 33.19 24.66

This shows how reinvested dividends have affected the value. The rate of return over that period has been 9.97%.


Impressive stuff - achieving a c. 10% CAGR over more than thirty years.

Thanks for sharing your data with us, TJH.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#218798

Postby tjh290633 » May 1st, 2019, 7:00 pm

Update to the end of the Financial year 2018-19.

.            Income Units              Accumulation
Year to Unit Value Div/Unit Unit Value
21-Apr-87 1.00 0.00 1.00
05-Apr-88 0.92 2.87 0.94
05-Apr-89 1.19 2.75 1.28
05-Apr-90 1.24 4.33 1.40
05-Apr-91 1.42 5.75 1.69
05-Apr-92 1.38 7.97 1.75
05-Apr-93 1.60 7.33 2.13
05-Apr-94 1.81 6.65 2.50
05-Apr-95 1.75 7.93 2.55
05-Apr-96 2.07 7.81 3.13
05-Apr-97 2.29 8.90 3.62
05-Apr-98 3.48 10.52 5.72
05-Apr-99 3.62 8.91 6.12
05-Apr-00 3.51 11.96 6.13
05-Apr-01 3.48 13.15 6.32
05-Apr-02 3.57 13.82 6.76
05-Apr-03 2.45 12.95 4.85
05-Apr-04 3.14 14.37 6.56
05-Apr-05 3.72 14.02 8.10
05-Apr-06 4.62 18.70 10.57
05-Apr-07 5.27 20.84 12.63
05-Apr-08 4.44 26.09 11.21
05-Apr-09 2.45 22.76 6.46
05-Apr-10 3.94 11.91 10.86
05-Apr-11 4.61 16.71 12.76
05-Apr-12 4.74 19.09 14.19
05-Apr-13 5.27 22.91 17.01
05-Apr-14 5.61 24.19 18.88
05-Apr-15 6.21 26.23 21.84
05-Apr-16 5.92 23.81 21.72
05-Apr-17 6.62 26.21 25.47
05-Apr-18 6.12 33.19 24.66
05-Apr-19 6.35 31.25 27.04


Portfolio today, 1st May 2019:

Value                
Rank EPIC Weight
1 DGE 3.66%
2 GSK 3.59%
3 RDSB 3.49%
4 CPG 3.47%
5 SGRO 3.43%
6 BP. 3.32%
7 ADM 3.31%
8 UU. 3.25%
9 TW. 3.21%
10 MARS 3.14%
11 AV. 3.14%
12 LGEN 3.11%
13 RIO 3.07%
14 ULVR 3.06%
15 BATS 2.90%
16 TATE 2.86%
17 BT.A 2.84%
18 SSE 2.83%
19 MKS 2.80%
20 AZN 2.75%
21 IMB 2.73%
22 LLOY 2.73%
23 NG. 2.73%
24 BHP 2.70%
25 PSON 2.62%
26 S32 2.58%
27 BLND 2.49%
28 WMH 2.48%
29 VOD 2.46%
30 IMI 2.34%
31 KGF 2.32%
32 SMDS 2.31%
33 RB. 2.26%
34 BA. 2.21%
35 TSCO 1.82%

TJH

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#218862

Postby TUK020 » May 2nd, 2019, 7:49 am

TJH,
Question 1.
10% per annum, 3x per decade on accumulation in nominal terms is very impressive.
Do you have this in inflation adjusted figures?

Question 2.
I think this is outperforming the market. Would you put this down to luck in particular stock picks, or your system of rebalancing/top slicing capturing return from market noise/mean reversion?

tuk020

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#218898

Postby OZYU » May 2nd, 2019, 10:18 am

I think that re balancing is important. That is why TJH, myself and many of my investors friends practice it on our HY oriented portfolios. It systematically (on average of course over a long period because it can go spectacularly wrong at individual event), captures to ones advantage the in and out of fashion nature of the market, which is definitely not efficient imho.


You have seen above what can result if you stick to the FTSE100, straying a little bit into the 350, as TJ does.

Below is mine for my HY oriented ISA. The difference is because I invest across the whole market, taking no account at all to sectors and cap. I hold plenty of stuff most posters on these boards would not touch, too bad. I tend to re balance later than TJ, for example my holding in APF is just over double bagging and will most probably get a serious haircut this month. I also will be less dictated by LTBH if I see the odd nice opportunity to make a relatively fast buck, for example sold a good chunk of stalwart stuff a few years back when I spotted an opportunity on MGHI at magical yield. Did the same when RUSP (now RAVP) got nearer par. Now both gone. Average length of holding still over 7 years.


Acc units to end of calendar years

1987 1.118
1988 1.260
1989 1.729
1990 1.603
1991 1.940
1992 2.355
1993 3.022
1994 2.846
1995 3.585
1996 4.304
1997 5.387
1998 6.315
1999 8.178
2000 8.094
2001 7.366
2002 5.833
2003 7.042
2004 8.137
2005 10.067
2006 12.210
2007 12.885
2008 9.260
2009 12.343
2010 14.621
2011 14.305
2012 16.018
2013 19.885
2014 20.203
2015 21.261
2016 25.976
2017 30.421
2018 29.236
2019 33.048 YTD ,includes XDs.


Compound return over the period: 11.42%


My wife's only invests in collectives, mostly ITs, her compound return is very close to TJHs since PEP days. Our joint 'US flavour' portfolio has however, trounced the lot, despite being taxed, mostly, but not fully, thanks to WB.

Ozyu


This is definitely my last post ever.

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#219067

Postby tjh290633 » May 2nd, 2019, 9:00 pm

TUK020 wrote:TJH,
Question 1.
10% per annum, 3x per decade on accumulation in nominal terms is very impressive.
Do you have this in inflation adjusted figures?

Question 2.
I think this is outperforming the market. Would you put this down to luck in particular stock picks, or your system of rebalancing/top slicing capturing return from market noise/mean reversion?

tuk020

I don't adjust for inflation, but I do compare both capital and income with the RPI, which conveniently was rebased to 100 at the start of 1987. I'm not at my computer right now, but I will dig out some comparative data when I can extract it. I think that the current RPI is about 250, so you can see that I am in front.

Question 2, yes it is outperforming the market most of the time, but not always. My belief is that being nominally equal weight is a major factor. My rebalancing is to limit the divergence from equal weight. I'm not immune from market movements, but I pay little heed to them. It's the dividend income which matters.

TJH

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#219198

Postby tjh290633 » May 3rd, 2019, 10:39 am

The following shows the change in Income unit value and distribution per unit, compared with the FT30 index and the FTSE100, alongside the change in the RPI for each year:

Year to      Unit Value   Div/Unit   FT30      FTSE      RPI   
21-Apr-87
05-Apr-88 -8.40% -8.09% -4.82% 3.93%
05-Apr-89 29.84% -4.29% 19.45% 11.73% 8.03%
05-Apr-90 4.00% 57.74% 2.96% 7.78% 9.45%
05-Apr-91 14.51% 32.69% 12.92% 10.31% 6.39%
05-Apr-92 -2.44% 38.62% -2.59% -0.68% 4.28%
05-Apr-93 15.75% -8.07% 15.65% 16.51% 1.30%
05-Apr-94 12.89% -9.32% 14.78% 12.84% 2.56%
05-Apr-95 -2.83% 19.28% -5.07% -2.01% 3.33%
05-Apr-96 17.75% -1.44% 14.71% 17.32% 2.42%
05-Apr-97 10.86% 13.92% 3.01% 16.57% 2.42%
05-Apr-98 51.99% 18.24% 32.17% 37.71% 4.03%
05-Apr-99 4.05% -15.38% 0.91% 5.47% 1.60%
05-Apr-00 -3.13% 34.32% -2.12% 4.41% 2.97%
05-Apr-01 -0.81% 9.92% -15.07% -13.86% 1.76%
05-Apr-02 2.66% 5.07% -19.85% -6.79% 1.50%
05-Apr-03 -31.37% -6.24% -48.58% -31.17% 3.13%
05-Apr-04 28.07% 10.91% 44.80% 21.34% 2.48%
05-Apr-05 18.37% -2.44% 8.32% 11.60% 3.18%
05-Apr-06 24.24% 33.40% 26.86% 21.87% 2.56%
05-Apr-07 14.12% 11.43% 12.92% 5.76% 4.53%
05-Apr-08 -15.79% 25.24% -16.84% -9.61% 4.19%
05-Apr-09 -44.75% -12.77% -45.08% -31.15% -1.17%
05-Apr-10 60.82% -47.69% 52.75% 44.66% 5.34%
05-Apr-11 16.90% 40.36% 8.14% 4.03% 5.21%
05-Apr-12 2.77% 14.23% -7.50% -3.13% 2.73%
05-Apr-13 11.28% 19.98% 16.44% 9.19% 2.82%
05-Apr-14 6.40% 5.61% 13.14% 5.58% 3.27%
05-Apr-15 10.64% 8.43% 9.28% 2.65% 0.90%
05-Apr-16 -4.54% -9.22% -6.28% -8.83% 1.32%
05-Apr-17 11.72% 10.06% 17.57% 18.59% 3.52%
05-Apr-18 -7.56% 26.61% -14.95% -3.64% 3.36%
05-Apr-19 3.79% -5.83% 17.35% 5.53% 2.11%

As you will see, there are some swings and roundabouts.

The actual values for the last row in the previous table, all on a common base, are:

.         .   Income Units              Accumulation                  April       
Year to Unit Value Div/Unit Unit Value FT30 FT100 RPI RPI
05-Apr-19 6.35 31.25 27.04 2.10 3.82 2.856 2.81


TJH

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#219318

Postby TUK020 » May 3rd, 2019, 3:57 pm

Thank you sir!
tuk020

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#219588

Postby Prof103 » May 4th, 2019, 9:12 pm

Many thanks to both TJH and OZYU for sharing their historical data since 1987. Excellent annual returns respectively at 10.45% and 11.42% per annum.

Re-balancing was mentioned as a possible benefit. I wondered if its effect might be muted in a large 35 share portfolio. Anyway, I leave that aside.

Over previous decades, the FTSE 100 has provided a good choice of well run company shares to buy. Personally, I have been a bit slow to realise that the FTSE 250 is now the better index in that regard. So with hindsight, for me it is easy to see why the FTSE 250 has trebled in the last decade rather than doubled as in the case of the FTSE 100. This effect I believe to be the most significant one in portfolio total return over the last decade.

That is history, as they say.

Looking ahead, I see the FTSE 250 increasing as the better index from which to choose companies. Returns then should look after themselves.

Prof103

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#219649

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » May 5th, 2019, 12:12 pm

Prof103 wrote:Many thanks to both TJH and OZYU for sharing their historical data since 1987. Excellent annual returns respectively at 10.45% and 11.42% per annum.


Yes, great stuff and something for us all to aspire to.

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#393894

Postby 1nvest » March 9th, 2021, 1:56 pm

With fiscal year end rapidly approaching, bumping this thread.

Looking like fiscal year 2020/21 may end up looking something like ...

Image
(thumbnail image, click for larger view)

for a equal FT250/BRK/gold asset allocation and using Terry's TJH Accumulation as a benchmark. TJH Accum looks to have rebounded strongly enough to have negated its 2019/2020 decline/losses (up around +33%)

Third each domestic (£), primary reserve (US$) and global (gold) currencies. Small cap (FT250 in US scale), large cap (US) and commodity assets.

Combine that with a home (land) and pensions (bonds) ... and a nice overall broad diversification.

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Re: TJH's HYP-Historical Data

#393902

Postby 1nvest » March 9th, 2021, 2:14 pm

This is a Japanese domestic currency based (Yen/Japanese inflation) version of a third each in Yen invested in Japanese stock, primary reserve currency (US$) invested in US stock and gold ... since 1972 to year end 2019 (calendar years)

Image

5.5% annualised real (after inflation) !!


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