If this deal was unimpressive to begin with, it has really gone into the toilet in the last week.
Sibanye's annual results on Feb. 22 were poorly received, to say the least - the stock, the "currency" for this transaction, fell 16% that day and is now down 27% from the price before the takeover was announced (close of ZAR11.68 today versus ZAR16.11 on Dec. 13). That values Lonmin shares at about 62.5 pence each, against 100p at the time of the announcement, using the same GBP/ZAR exchange rate. The rand has strengthened against sterling since then, so the shares are worth 69p each at the current rate, which is slightly less gruesome.
The biggest Lonmin shareholder (with about 29%) is Public Investment Corp., which is owned by the South African government. However, PIC is also the second-largest Sibanye stockholder (owning about 11%), so it's not obvious to me that they have any particular motivation to push for a better deal here. One wonders what the likes of Majedie, Schroders, Legal & General and Ruffer (all on the Lonmin register) make of the situation.
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