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Pensana Rare Earths

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#388178

Postby Dynamo1 » February 20th, 2021, 12:36 pm

As I mentioned two weeks ago 84p looked like a good place to buy. Since then, PM8 delisted from ASX we are left with PRE on LSE.
Shareprice has steadily increased with a large jump on Friday to 1.07 (I always take the Bid figure - more conservative). This the third run-up towards a BFS / Business Plan, let's hope its third time lucky and not just a paragraph at the end of February....

Shares in Issue Price £ MCap Exch rate US$ Mcap
203,645,822 1.07 £217,901,030 1.4 US$305,061,441

One thing to note is the increase in the strength of sterling; when I first started this thread on 16th September 2020 the Cable rate was 1.28, it has now risen to 1.40. The shareprice back then was .66p.

My two stock picks for 2020 (and which I regularly post on LF) were PRD and PRE, they have both started the year well. There is a lot more to come from both Companies. Other interests are RBW who are doing better than expected, primarily because of the current price of NdPr and because they are actually producing. I believe PRE will turn out to be far bigger than RBW in the longer-term because they have a much bigger resource and a clear mine to metals strategy. Another company I am looking at is AMTE Power (not yet listed - next month I think - I am on the book), they are linked to the EV side of the green revolution supplying batteries to performance car manufacturers and windfarms.

The scale of green investments will escalate in the next few years, fund managers have already started to move out of dirty industry into in green alternatives. BP are buying windfarms (look out Greencoat/UK Wind), the tide has turned this year far quicker than I imagined. It seems that that the year of Covid has given the heads of major Car manufacturers pause for thought. They have sold few cars and have seen the success of Tesla (outrageous valuation). But in the last couple of weeks Jaguar, GM and Ford have announced they are going green sooner than expected. All car makers will have no alternative but to follow suit.

I digress, PRE and PRD are still my favoured stocks for 2021. Cheers D1

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#392256

Postby Dynamo1 » March 4th, 2021, 1:44 pm

Not a bad few days for the share price considering we still don't have a BFS / Business Plan (expected next Monday or Tuesday)...

As I write...

Shares in Issue Price £ MCap Exch rate US$ Mcap
203,645,822 1.5 £305,468,733 1.39 US$424,601,539

The Budget was most likely responsible for the decent price boost yesterday. Rishi advised that there will be a new UK Infrastructure Bank (based in Leeds) targeting big industry plus major new port infrastructure in Humberside (and Teesside). There will also be plenty of support for the windfarm industry. Humberside will be one of the 8 new "Freeports" benefitting from simpler planning, favourable tariffs and tax breaks. Pensana should be able to claim 130% tax back on new construction equipment. At this rate they won't have to pay anything for Saltend...

I hope we don't get too many more delays, I find this really frustrating. How can the Company be trusted with proposed production and plant timescales going forward? Any major delays and we will start to lose competitive advantage as other supply comes on stream.

This brings me to another factor which is touched upon in the "Portfolio Matters" podcast (see below link). This is the second Rare Earth Element podcast that they have produced (the first one was an introduction to Rare Earths covering basic detail that I am sure most of you will already know). This particular podcast lasts about 36 minutes and is an informative piece of work. It touches on something that is key to any future investment in rare earth companies and that is oversupply.

Rare Earths are not at all rare, it's just that mining companies in more recent times have not bothered to mine them (as there was little to no value). Now with the huge demand arising from EV and Wind Turbine developments the value of NdPr has rocketed. Today it's US$91,108.43pmt. The Podcast correctly identifies that there will be a wall of new supply waiting to hit the market, there are many explorers and miners out there looking for (and developing) rare earth projects.

My views differ slightly from the Podcast in that I believe most of the supply and demand modelling I have seen so far this year has calculated demand based on most western countries legislative practices being compulsory from 2030 onwards. However, they haven't taken into account the fact that most of the major car manufacturers are jumping the gun and have now pledged to stop producing combustion engines from 2025. There has also been a sudden shift by some oil majors to invest in greener sources of energy. So the demand will be sooner (and greater) than expected.

At the moment there are only a handful of western rare earth companies producing, but this will rise. I also believe that the likes of Pensana are well positioned to action their mine to metals strategy by 2023/4. However, by 2025/6 there will be other companies in a position to mine rare earths so there will be greater supply hitting the market.
Demand will continue to outstrip supply but it will eventually even out. When this happens, rare earth prices will fall rapidly.

Pensana are nicely positioned, they are already sitting on a huge resource and once funding and planning is in place they will be ready to go. They also have the backing of the UK government who are keen to show their green credentials and will provide favourable assistance with their oxide processing plant at Saltend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuMEkhw4idU&t=1803s

Cheers D1

everhopeful
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#392286

Postby everhopeful » March 4th, 2021, 2:14 pm

Thanks Dynamo. I had already thought that it wouldn't take long for other outfits to start digging up the metals but there is still the need for processing. If Pensana can get its processing plant at Saltend going this might insulate them to some extent from falls in price of the metals perhaps. At the moment the value of my shareholding has more than doubled but I am happy to sit tight and await the Business Plan.

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#392739

Postby Eft2 » March 5th, 2021, 1:41 pm

Business plan expected Monday or Tuesday?
I’ve been on the edge of my seat for almost 5 months, what’s a few more days? I hope this is it, I can nay take no more.

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#393057

Postby Dynamo1 » March 6th, 2021, 11:53 am

This is it lol - almost definitely Monday (if not then Tuesday) from a very good source. As you say it's been a frustrating wait; October, then January, then February. What will be interesting is the shareprice reaction. How long I wonder, before institutions climb aboard? My initial targets for selling (or rather taking my initial capital investment off the table) were 90p then £1.20 then £1.60 but the way the share has been motoring I think it has a lot further to go.

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#393205

Postby GrahamPlatt » March 6th, 2021, 8:55 pm


everhopeful
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#393509

Postby everhopeful » March 8th, 2021, 8:26 am

RNS this morning. New COO and metalurgist appointments. Sound like very experienced people and share price likes it.

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#394288

Postby Dynamo1 » March 10th, 2021, 2:06 pm

The first rule of investing is - do not believe everything you read on a public bulletin board.....
Apologies are due from me, the BFS (Business Plan) I categorically advised would turn up on Monday or Tuesday categorically didn't.....
Back to my source today and I'm advised that PRE are still tidying up a few bits and pieces relating to Australia, so back to square one (they are faffing about). Maybe next week.... :D

Nevertheless, it's been a good few days and the price at 1.53 is a lot higher than anyone imagined for this point in time. I still haven't sold a penny, I want to see what's in the plan and the timelines. Institutional investors will be targeted shortly, the brokers will have something to sell and broker notes will be forthcoming. I understand there will be a media blitz when the Business Plan is released so this will help sustain interest.

The Company appointed a new COO (Rocky Smith) and a Metallurgical Manager (Roy Gordon) so they are beefing up their management team with experienced rare earthers which is no bad thing. The Humber with it's Freeport status is going to be so important to PRE, it is literally a stones throw away from our proposed Saltend plant and will give fantastic access to many associated battery, EV and wind turbine industries home and abroad.

Enjoy the journey - Cheers D1

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#394306

Postby Eft2 » March 10th, 2021, 3:20 pm

I’m happy that the business plan didn’t arrive yet, I got a little a bit of cash today for a cheeky top up.

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#394859

Postby dspp » March 12th, 2021, 10:43 am

see viewtopic.php?p=394857#p394857 re rare earths etc
- dspp

Dynamo1
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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#400147

Postby Dynamo1 » March 29th, 2021, 6:18 pm

Shares in Issue Price £ MCap Exch rate US$ Mcap
203,645,822 1.61 £327,869,773 1.38 US$452,460,287

Bit of a rollercoaster couple of weeks with the shareprice falling 20p then rising 26p then down again today. Still no news and quite frankly I've given up trying to guess when the BFS / BP is going to arrive. It's an absolute nonsense, hence I haven't written anything. Sold a few this morning from my trading account at 1.73045 to raise £20k to switch into my ISA sometime after the 6th April. Not sure yet whether I will reinvest into PRE (or PRD), it's all about timing. If the BFS hasn't come out by the 6th then probably PRE (because I am sure it will jump on announcement). If it has, then I will have missed out on any potential uptick and might buy some more PRD to take advantage of run up to spud (end H2) plus news from Trinidad. I believe both shares will continue to do well in 2021. Cheers D1

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#400782

Postby everhopeful » April 1st, 2021, 10:27 am

I have lost patience with the non appearance of the BFS and the rather underwhelming Interim Results. I sold at almost exactly double what I paid and am happy with that. I hope my decision was wrong for those of you who remain invested.

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#403339

Postby Chinasyndrome » April 11th, 2021, 3:08 am

everhopeful wrote:I have lost patience with the non appearance of the BFS and the rather underwhelming Interim Results. I sold at almost exactly double what I paid and am happy with that. I hope my decision was wrong for those of you who remain invested.


Invested being the key word, If you are an Investor rather than a Trader, it would pay to try and analyze why there is this delay before dumping ?

There is plenty of information out there indicating that the Business Plan is contingent on the Saltend Planning Permit and that that process can not be determined until 13 weeks after lodgment. By my reckoning that makes tomorrow the absolute earliest and given Friday's sad news I would not expect anything until after the 17th.

"Are we there yet" ? No, but it is not far now, so why not settle back and enjoy the ride :)

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#403352

Postby everhopeful » April 11th, 2021, 9:18 am

Welcome Chinasyndrome. I enjoy reading your contributions on ADVFN and I hope you will contribute your insights in this place in the future as well.

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#403560

Postby Dynamo1 » April 12th, 2021, 10:34 am

Chinasyndrome wrote:
everhopeful wrote:I have lost patience with the non appearance of the BFS and the rather underwhelming Interim Results. I sold at almost exactly double what I paid and am happy with that. I hope my decision was wrong for those of you who remain invested.


Invested being the key word, If you are an Investor rather than a Trader, it would pay to try and analyze why there is this delay before dumping ?

There is plenty of information out there indicating that the Business Plan is contingent on the Saltend Planning Permit and that that process can not be determined until 13 weeks after lodgment. By my reckoning that makes tomorrow the absolute earliest and given Friday's sad news I would not expect anything until after the 17th.

"Are we there yet" ? No, but it is not far now, so why not settle back and enjoy the ride :)



Welcome Chinasyndrome, good to have you join this rather sedate Pensana Lemon Fool board.

Investing vs Trading causes a series of emotions. I would say I am investor, I don't really trade unless the story changes. I followed PRE from early stages (but nowhere near as early as you), I think my first tranche of shares was around 40p and my last when topping up our ISA's at £1.60.

The Pensana story has been great so far, however I agree with Everhopeful that it has been tainted by the brazen missing of deadlines re BFS. Companies might be able to get away with woeful timekeeping on ASX but on LSE I would say it is less forgiving. I have said before if Paul is so flippant about deadlines, what is to say he doesn't repeat the act when it comes to actual production forecasts. I like to see deadlines met and if they are not, then I like to see a decent explanation why. Saltend was a welcome addition to the story and so I see why the goalposts have been moved, however, there could have been a lot more clarity from the Company as to the knock-on effect re the BFS deadline. Rant over...

I can understand why some people have sold, plenty of money has been made in a relatively short period of time, so investors need to preserve capital and also have bills to pay. From a risk perspective, who's to say there wont be an Isis attack in Angola or an army coup or some other macro event. Angola is fairly stable compared to most, but elections are due (2022) and history tells us that anything can happen in Africa. So I would always suggest that wherever possible an investor takes their original capital investment off the table so that they have a free ride and negate the risk.

Back to the BFS, when this arrives I think the absolute magnitude of the Companies assets will be highlighted and will allow favourable comparison to it's current peers. I expect a decent rise off the back of the report / plan followed by a period of calm whilst institutional fundraising takes place. The sustainable mine to magnet metal supply chain will be a very valuable offering. I hope to take some profits (half original investment) shortly after the BFS is released and ahead of fundraising (as stated previously I have other "opportunities" I wish to explore). I expect to keep the majority of my investment here for the long term as (aside from macro events stated above) I see Pensana becoming a major mining company over the next decade.

I look forward to seeing your analysis of the BFS, you have a greater understanding of the metallurgy than most and I value your input to the various bulletin boards. Cheers D1

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#405448

Postby Dynamo1 » April 19th, 2021, 7:08 pm

Saltend approved, well I did say it was a rubber stamp job. BFS (Business Plan) to follow shortly - I mean it this time.
Announcement from Pensana imminent (so tomorrow or within the next 6 months)....

https://newplanningaccess.eastriding.go ... ningaccess - search under reference 21/00153/CM you will find the detail under Documents / eDecision / 19/04/2021

Joking aside I think this will be the start of some serious news flow. The Company can now get on with delivering it's vision.

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#405510

Postby Eft2 » April 20th, 2021, 7:43 am

Another corner piece of the puzzle. All eyes on the Business Plan now.

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#405760

Postby skewwy » April 21st, 2021, 7:33 am

BP is in today's RNS :)

Expected revenue is 550mil Vs a cap of 400mil so hopefully market likes it today :)

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#405778

Postby Dynamo1 » April 21st, 2021, 9:13 am

https://pensana.co.uk/wp-content/upload ... s-Plan.pdf

The long awaited Business Plan - hurrah!!! Some impressive numbers in here including:

Annual Production of Rare Earth Oxides (REO) C. 12,500 tpa
Annual Production NdPr Oxides C. 4,500 (included in REO) which would be circa 5% of projected 2025 World demand.

The Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund have also indicated they are more than willing to increases their 23% stake and the Company have had approaches from a wide range of financial institutions.

Opex US$ 22/kg rare earth oxide
Capex Saltend Refinery US$ 125M
Longonjo Mine and Infrastructure US$ 38M
Longonjo Concentrator US$ 105M
Longonjo MRES Refinery US$ 124M
Growth Allowance and Contingency US$ 31M
Revenue (Average steady state) US$ 550 million (average per annum based on first five years)
EBITDA (Average steady state) US$ 359 million (average per annum based on first five years)
NPV8 ** (un-leveraged , post-tax) US$ 2.3 billion
IRR 57%
Payback from first production 2.0 years
** NPV is calculated at an operational level (pre-financing) which is anticipated to be a blend
of equity and long term debt financing.

With a nameplate capacity of circa 12,500 tonnes per year of rare earth oxides – including 4,500 tonnes of magnet metal rare earth oxides – representing approximately 5% of 2025 projected world demand, under the Company’s plans, Pensana’s plant at Saltend would become the world’s first major separation facility established in over a decade and one of only three major producers outside China.
Lynas Corporation of Australia, (ASX: LYC, market capitalisation: US$4.1 billion) currently the world’s largest non-Chinese producer, last year produced around 4,700 tonnes of magnet metal oxides from its facility in Malaysia. MP Materials (NYSE: MP, market capitalisation: US$5.0 billion) is planning to produce c. 6,000 tonnes of magnet metal oxides from 2023.

What this doesn't say is that MP Materials will have to pump in a huge amount of cash to reach their target. Pensana has (comparatively) a far easier (and cheaper) mining project ahead. Both the UK and Angolan governments are fully behind Pensana and won't allow if to fail. I am sure other comparisons will now come to light now we have this detail.

Have no doubt, Paul Atherley will be appearing on a screen near you imminently!!!
Good luck to all holders - Cheers D1

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Re: Pensana Rare Earths

#405785

Postby everhopeful » April 21st, 2021, 10:04 am

Why has the share price fallen 11% on this news?


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